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rpm

03-03-2011, 01:33 AM Post subject: time to start winning

#1 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

hi! i'm rpm. you may remember me from such trainwrecks as "operation: same as every one else"...

so i'm creating another one of these things because they seem to keep me busy and the old one is dead. basically i intend to use this thread to post my thoughts on poker and track my re/pro-gression as it happens. i will be attempting some in-depth hand analyses (which i'd love to get some feedback on) in the format which spoon taught me in some coaching sessions last year, posting general thoughts about how i think i could be making more money/the state of play in my current games, and i may even post monthly graphs. i will also post short-term, non $-oriented, goals for myself to hopefully keep me productive and keep the poker learning train on course. i have decided i am going to mix my games up a bit more in the hope of becoming a more versatile holdem player and being able to better adapt to situations. i will be playing:

-50nl FR 40bb deep (or maybe cap)
-25nl FR 100bb deep
-10nl FR 200bb deep
-10nl 6max 100bb deep

all on full tilt. i'm completely new to 6max. but it seems fun, and i think it's a positive thing to get experience playing short(er) handed for many reasons. i have a more than adequate bankroll for these stakes. bankroll isn't an issue. skill level is. i will be aiming to play a modest 4-500 hands per day for the near future. no more, and only less if i need to quit because of tilt/distraction/whatever. oh yeah, that reminds me. aside from my study of poker play, i will be re-reading "poker mindset" and actively attempting to notice, and weed out, some of my delusional mindsets/emotional reactions which arise while playing poker and make me suck even more than i do otherwise.

that seems to be about it. so i'll start with a statement/confession i hopefully read and take note of before every single session:

FPS is crippling my winrate, increasing my variance, and often causing me to tilt. i seem to think everyone is 3/4 betting light if i get the slightest indication that they might be. most of them aren't. and if they are, my best adjustments are:
- leaving the table if they have position on me
- TIGHTENING my opening range instead of just opening the same amount and deciding to start re-popping them like a madman

i have, in the past, typically ran about 17/14 which is too loose for someone who sucks postflop as much as i do. i think i need to either tighten up preflop, or start limping some hands behind 2+ limpers which play well multiway, instead of isoing them. i don't think the 17/14 "image" is noticed or reacted to by enough players at this stakes to warrant the amount of shitty spots i'm putting myself in, or the unnecessarily weak ranges i have in certain spots.

/intro-rant

edit: i forgot to mention, i intend to start doing weekly analyses of the (time-permitting) 5-10 biggest losers of the last week in an attempt to spot some general leaks or recurring mistakes im making in the pots that count the most.

edit #2: i've decided to lay down some little personal rules which maximise the EV of my poker playing.
- no poker hands to be played unless poker study has been done on given day
- if the thought "maybe i shouldn't be playing right now" arises in my head just once. i stop the session at next BB's
- no cashier/tracker watching. it's neutral EV at best. more often than not -EV.
- no more than 1.5hrs play in a given session, REGARDLESS of table conditions.

i'll add to this as i think of more.

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

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PlayToWin

03-03-2011, 02:04 AM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2008

Posts: 606

1st - GL

Explain...what I do for a living without saying "I make monies in da 600 enels by pwnin' tha donk bitches". Instead I say "I'm a online financial redistribution broker". - Sasquach991

HarleyGuy13

03-03-2011, 02:34 AM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2008

Location: Oregon

Posts: 1,226

GL Sir I am looking forward to following your success!

"You start the game with a full pot o’ luck and an empty pot o’ experience...
The object is to fill the pot of experience before you empty the pot of luck."

Quote:

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Do you have testicles? If so, learn to bet like it

rpm

03-03-2011, 04:10 AM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

thanks PTW and Harley

just played a pretty swongy session over about ~450 hands. focus was good and i was playing well for 95% of the session but ended up in some spots i was uncomfortable with and lost a couple of >100bb pots. mindset stayed clear, which is a good thing. the pots i lost weren't due to tilt-related spew or anything, but instead a hole in my poker understanding. and i have a feeling a couple of the HH's i marked for review might be eye-openers to a couple of leaks in my game. so i'm looking forward to delving into them later tonight. adios

Imthenewfish

03-03-2011, 04:33 AM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2010

Location: sites im allowed to play on

Posts: 945

im looking forward to ur hh analysis they're always really indepth!

chatzilla

03-03-2011, 08:59 PM

#6 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: Melbourne, Australia

Posts: 360

chatzilla is an unknown quantity at this point

GL man looking forward to this

rpm

03-04-2011, 06:16 AM

#7 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

so here's a hand where i didn't know wtf to do and so spewed ~140bb. i feel kind of like i'm wasting my time doing this because i'm pretty confident it was a terrible play but whatever. maybe if i see exactly how many EV's it cost me i'll react better in the future.

villian is now in my db as 17/5 over 41. this hand was played something like 13 hands into that sample. i think he was something like 14/0 at the time. no notes or history.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($25.12)
CO ($36.50)
Hero (Button) ($35.49)
SB ($32.95)
BB ($21.77)
UTG ($26.40)
UTG+1 ($8.75)
MP1 ($16.46)

- Preflop: Hero is Button with A

, A

-
4 folds, CO bets $0.80

Villain's preflop range
14/0 over <15 hands doesn't really tell me much about this guy's opening range. i'll have a guess and say:
22+,A8s+,ATo+,KTs+,KJo+,Q9s+,QTo+,JTs, which is ~185 hand combinations.

- Hero raises to $2.50, 2 folds -

My Range
this is obviously a standard 3bet for value. in hindsight, i definitely should have adjusted my 3b sizing up because we are deep. so the larger i 3bet, the less profitable hands like 22-88 are for villain which are probably calling exclusively to set mine. my own range here is probably just a straightforward QQ+ lacking any substantial reads about his opening/3b-calling/4-betting ranges.

- CO calls $1.70 -

i'm guessing this is like 22-KK,AK, maybe AQs. i include KK because people don't seem as willing 4bet/call AI with KK when they are >100bb deep.
so, 22-KK (72), AK (8), AQs (2). i'm guessing i have like 75% equity against this range (wrong. 82%).

villain is calling 6.5bb at ~2.2:1 with like 20:1 maximum implied odds. so he probably can profitably set-mine small pairs because my range is pretty strong (though i remember there's a well-explained section in NLHT+P about implied odds, set-mining and perfect infomation etc which i'll check out and edit into this post anything interesting i find)

- Flop: ($5.35) 3

, 4

, 5

(2 players) -
CO checks

with probably 100% of his preflop range

- Hero bets $4 -

this flop is wet, but it also leaves a ton of overpairs in villain's range which probably call at least one street. i expect him to continue here with all of 22-KK and AKhh, AQhh which breaks down as such:

9 combos of sets {33,44,55} which have 77% equity against me
2 combos of flush draws with no live pair outs {AKhh,AQhh}, which have 41% equity
12 combos of pair + OESD's {22,66} which have 38% equity against me
6 combos of overpair/gutters {77} which have 24% equity
36 combos of naked overpairs {88-KK} which have 11% equity

so i'm guessing i have about 65% equity against his continuing range (wrong. 75%). but regardless value-betting here is clearly +EV.

- CO raises to $13 -

it's dealing with this range which is the most important point of the whole hand. he check/bombs me ~3x. at the time, i lost my "cool" and along with it went my rational mindset. i didn't get frustrated or angry or anything like that. i just didn't know wtf to do. and so i ended up convincing myself that he could do this with some of TT-KK because he doesn't know wtf else to do with them (need stronger reads to make this statement imo), and also that he would C/R some flush draws, seeing as i don't block the Ah (MAYBE, but there are only 2 of them in his range, and they don't alter the equity of his range much even if they are in there. anyway,

- Hero raises to $32.99 (All-In), CO (snap) calls $19.99 -

so now i'm going to look at my equity versus some different ranges, and try to do some EV equations to (most likely) prove how spewy the shove really was.

current pot is 22.35, and i'm risking 28.99 to win it. if i win, i profit 5.35 + 4 +13 +19.99 = 42.35 (some clarification on that plz someone with maths?)

so. against 33-55 i have 21% equity.

0 * 22.35 = 0 (he folds, i win current pot)
1.0 * (0.21 * 42.35) = 8.89 (he calls, i win)
1.0 * (0.79 * -28.99) = -22.61 (he calls, i lose)
0 + 8.89 - 22.61 = -13.72

same process. different variables. this time vs 33-55,KK (i have 48% equity)
1.0 * (0.48 * 42.35) = 20.328
1.0 * (0.52 * -28.99) = - 15.07
20.328 - 15.07 = 5.258

obviously shoving will be +EV when i have 48% equity and >10% of stacks already in the pot.

last one. this is as wide as i think this guy is c/raising the flop, though in reality it's probably just 33-55. {22-66,AKhh,AQhh}
ok so the EV of shoving versus this range will be ~ the same as the above range (i have 48% vs both)

Turn: ($71.33) Q

(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($71.33) 10

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $71.33 | Rake: $3

i know, i know, "TL;DR"

nh sir. so what did i learn, if anything?
- i need to figure out how to stay as calm and rational as i can when faced with these big-pot-potential situations when i don't have the nuts. i'm not entirely sure how to go about that. maybe meditation or some breathing techniques would help?
- when villains range is so few in combos, the EV becomes really fiddly.and there is a thin line (or a few hand combinations) between making a neutral or slightly +EV shove, or making one which costsover half a buyin. there is (assuming i didn't fuck up the maths) an $18 difference in EV between jamming vs 33-55, and jamming vs 33-55,KK (or whatever the top pocket pair in his preflop flatting range is). so it pays to know how he plays those hands.

let me know your thoughts on the hand, or any minute aspect of my thought process during the hand, or if i messed up the maths. or anything at all. i'm braindead now. seeya.

edit: so i tried to do some maths and figure out what the minimum amount of $ has to be behind for him to call profitably. but i sucked at math and couldn't really figure out what i wanted to.

rpm

03-04-2011, 06:36 AM

#8 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

i was hungover today so didn't grind cash. just played some microstakes SNG's and tourneys. and some FPP satellites. ran terribly in AI situations/having sets flopped against my overpairs with SPR's of <2. but it only cost me between 2 and 3 dollars, or some leftover FPP's i had sitting round in my stars account, each time it happened. so no worries.

PlayToWin

03-04-2011, 06:03 PM

#9 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2008

Posts: 606

That AA hand is always gonna be hard to play correctly. The reason being that, you don't have many hands on him (no reads), villian may put you on a wide PF range due to your position, the low flop means he'll still want to play big pairs, he could c/r w/flush draw. But, you know all that.

It's a tough spot any way I think about it. Folding to an unkown c/r might be better than shoving. Seems weak, though. Where are the FTR regs?

Explain...what I do for a living without saying "I make monies in da 600 enels by pwnin' tha donk bitches". Instead I say "I'm a online financial redistribution broker". - Sasquach991

bikes

03-04-2011, 06:06 PM

#10 (permalink)

a hot damn mess
Administrator

Join Date: Nov 2007

Posts: 2,448

ummm. are u serial? that AA hand is std. stop being results oriented

I damage threads that may actually benefit some posters

Micro2Macro

03-04-2011, 11:17 PM

#11 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Jan 2009

Location: http://three-pair.com/

Posts: 4,463

AA hand played fine

"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

rpm

03-05-2011, 07:28 AM

#12 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

thanks for the feedback, guys. appreciate it. i assume you're saying the AA hand is standard because he will show up with the higher pairs in his PF flatting range enough of the time, yeah? i probably was being results-oriented, but lacking reads on this dude's C/R range i can only really assess it based on my overall experience of being C/3x'd on flops by dudes with <15VPIP and low PFR's at 25nl. which is hugely unbalanced and weighted towards the nuts.

aaaaaaaanyway, played for ~1 hour this afternoon. ran into the top people's ranges in a couple of AI preflop pots. no reciprical $ exchanged there. guessing i dropped like 2BI but i don't look at session results. might dig up a HH later to go through but i've got some philosophy readings i should do. though HH analysis is pretty fun to do. seeya.

rpm

03-05-2011, 10:07 AM

#13 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

thank god for donkaments

villain was something like 50/20 over the ~40 hands i had with him. my suspicion that he was limping all 51 combos XsXs was confirmed when he showed 3s2s.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 3.3 Tournament, 40/80 Blinds (8 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t1545)
Hero (BB) (t8335)
UTG (t2550)
UTG+1 (t4470)
MP1 (t7103)
MP2 (t4460)
CO (t4645)
Button (t3975)

Hero's M: 69.46

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10

, 8

1 fold, UTG+1 calls t80, MP1 calls t80, 3 folds, SB calls t40, Hero checks

Flop: (t320) 8

, J

(4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t240, UTG+1 calls t240, 2 folds

Turn: (t800) 6

(2 players)
Hero bets t560, UTG+1 calls t560

River: (t1920) 4

(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t3590 (All-In), Hero calls t3590

Total pot: t9100

______________________________________
this was the first hand of this tourney. no reads on either player but going on the amount of times i've seen three stacks in the middle in the first hand in these games, i don't think this is too thin.

limp/caller tanked before calling w/A9o
original raiser snapped with QJs

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 3.3 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t3000)
Hero (BB) (t3000)
UTG (t3000)
UTG+1 (t3000)
MP1 (t3000)
MP2 (t3000)
MP3 (t3000)
CO (t3000)
Button (t3000)

Hero's M: 66.67

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10

, 10

3 folds, MP2 calls t30, 1 fold, CO bets t135, 2 folds, Hero raises to t3000 (All-In), MP2 calls t2970 (All-In), CO calls t2865 (All-In)

Flop: (t9015) 5

, 4

, 5

(3 players, 3 all-in)

Turn: (t9015) 10

(3 players, 3 all-in)

River: (t9015) Q

(3 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: t9015

thankyou come again

philly and the phanatics

03-05-2011, 04:08 PM

#14 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Dec 2006

Posts: 1,109

philly and the phanatics is a jewel in the rough

yuck on shoving TT in that hand imo

bikes

03-05-2011, 05:09 PM

#15 (permalink)

a hot damn mess
Administrator

Join Date: Nov 2007

Posts: 2,448

TT prolly marginal if not bad

I damage threads that may actually benefit some posters

rpm

03-07-2011, 02:26 AM

#16 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

so i think i'll just keep working on the staple kind of ranges/equity analysis in my HH analysis and study until such time as i have >1k hands on a few regs (new computer. new database) at which time i'll start using PT3 to do some review of regs and attempt to go more in-depth into exploitative strategies and all that fun stuff.

to this end, i'll aim to post up a minimum of 1 HH per day. which shouldn't be too hard if i'm getting out of bed before mid-day.

rpm

03-08-2011, 05:31 AM

#17 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

hi. this is just a friendly reminder to myself and anyone who reads this that it is a good idea to take as much time as you feel you need, within the constraints of the time-bank, in order to make the best decisions you can while playing poker. HH's to come later after food.

rpm

03-08-2011, 07:30 AM

#18 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

villain here is 40/4/3 over ~70. has folded to 8/12 cbets. no notes.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($46.25)
UTG+1 ($28.30)
MP1 ($36.85)
MP2 ($23.75)
MP3 ($20)
Hero (CO) ($50.45)
Button ($10.15)
SB ($5.10)
BB ($20)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 10

, J

UTG calls $0.50, 3 folds, MP3 checks, Hero bets $2.50, 3 folds, UTG calls $2, 1 fold

limping range:
22-JJ, A2s+, A6o+, K6s+, KTo+, Q8s+, QTo+, J7s+, J9o+, T7s+, T9o, 96s+, 97o+, 85s+, 87o, 75s+, 76o, 64s+, 65o, 53s+, 42s+

my iso range:
i'm going to be isolating pretty wide because his range is so weak, so he makes mistakes by either limping too wide so that he folds to a raise like 80% of the time, or limp/calling too wide in which case he is forced to C/F a lot of flops. also i'm isoing because i just want to play pots in position versus this guy + "dead" money is there because the poster checked, indicating a relatively weak range.
22+, A7s+, A9o+, K8s+, KTo+, Q8s+, Q9o+, J8s+, J9o+, T8s+, 98s-76s

his iso calling range:
22-JJ, A2s-AQs, A6-AQo, K6s+, KTo+, Q8s+, QTo+, J7s+, J9o+, T7s+, T9o, 96s+, 97o+, 85s+, 87o, 75s+, 76o, 64s+, 65o, 53s+, 42s+

i'm guessing most of, if not all, the shit he was limping.

Flop: ($6.25) 7

, 6

, J

(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4,

my range here is something like all one pair hands 88+, all two pairs, sets, gutters, OESD's and flush draws.

- UTG calls $4 -

this is probably 88-TT, A6-A7, AJ, A2-5cc, A8-Tcc, AQcc, K6s, K7s, KJ, K8-Tcc, KQcc, QJ, Q8-Tcc, J7-J8s, J9+, T7s, T8+, 96s, 97+, 85s+, 87o, 75s+, 76o, 64s+, 65o, 53s+, 43s

i prefer betting $5 here because i doubt it would influence his calling range much.

Turn: ($14.25) 10

(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $11,

my range:
i'm not going to fire a second barrel as a semi-bluff here. i'm probably betting something like QJ and stronger, intending to probably fold all hands weaker than 76 to a check/raise

- UTG calls $11 -

range:
88-99, AJ, A2-5cc, A8-Tcc, AQcc, KJ, K8-Tcc, KQcc, QJ, Q8-Tcc, J7-J8s, J9+, T7s, T8+, 97+, 85s+, 87o, 76

so basically any "made" hand top pair or stronger, any 8+ out draw, or any pair/gutter type hand.

River: ($36.25) 3

(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $32.95 (All-In),

instead of saying what my range was here, i'm going to figure out what my range should have been, based on his calling range (which is what my thought process should be at the tables anyway)

his calling range:
88-99, AJ, ATcc, KJ, KTcc, QJ, QTcc, J7-J8s, J9+, T7s, T8+, 98, 76

so from my turn range:
KJ has 54%
QJ has 47%

so KJ should have been the bottom of my shoving range

- UTG calls $28.75 (All-In) -
Total pot: $93.75 | Rake: $3

anyway, he had 88.

rpm

03-10-2011, 07:37 AM

#19 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

i've been running good lately. which is good. i've also been studying less. which is bad. seeing as i'm ahead of schedule for my volume goals, i think i'll dedicate the most part of my poker time between now and monday studying. it seems any time i start running well i start to become complacent - playing more, studying less, and gradually playing worse (and in less optimal conditions) as a result. it seems (for me anyway) more enticing to sit down and play that session when i know i'm a little too tired/inattentive or whatever if i've been on a heater for my last 10k hands. everything just seems more optimistic. any deviation from the neutral mindset i try to maintain at the tables is -EV imo, whether associated with negative or positive emotions. i have a heap of HH's marked for review which i'm keen to get into. i've been value-betting far thinner lately with a good amount of success, which is exciting for me, so i'll try to find some HH's where i bet for value in spots i may not have in the past and see if my value bets are becoming better or if i'm just running into the right part of people's ranges over the small sample. probably won't be of much interest to many but it seems to be the best way for me to refine my intuition at the tables. so hopefully i find some time to do that. had a pretty long sweat session with chatzilla last night which was pretty cool to be able to talk poker strategy in real-time as i/he played. i certainly think that i benefitted from it. anyway, that's enough from me.

ps playing multiple short sessions instead of 1 or 2 big ones is the nuts.
seeya.

WeaselT

03-10-2011, 09:58 PM

#20 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2009

Location: Winter Park

Posts: 300

WeaselT is an unknown quantity at this point

Quote:

ps playing multiple short sessions instead of 1 or 2 big ones is the nuts.

totally agree. and good to see you back at it. GL

rpm

03-16-2011, 04:31 AM

#21 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpm

i think i'll dedicate the most part of my poker time between now and monday studying.

ahahahhahahahahhhaa, ARRGHHHHHAHAHHAAHAHA. yeah so, i haven't played or thought about poker since this last post. alcohol tends to inhibit my productivity like that. never said i was perfect. i'll set the train back on course some time in the near future.

rpm

03-24-2011, 09:51 AM

#22 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

got some hands i want to check out.

opener is 18/14/5% 3bet over 194. he seems relatively competent and aggressive. only note is that he opened from the CO, then 4b/folded to my SB 3b/5b AI. i can't think of any reason he would only min-raise UTG with a range of hands that has my AQo crushed.

the guy who flats behind me is registering as 21/14 over 14 hands. no reads.

BU is 20/13/0 over 14

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($26.44)
UTG ($33.55)
UTG+1 ($10)
Hero (MP1) ($33.75)
MP2 ($7.62)
CO ($26.05)
Button ($25)
SB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q

, A

UTG bets $0.50,

I don't know wtf to make of this guy minraising UTG. i don't have a note that he can't size preflop raises properly, and he seems remotely competent. maybe a misclick. maybe he has UTG bet-sizing tells. lacking any idea what he's up to, i'll say his range is something like

AJs+,AQo+,22+,KQs
quick combos: AJs (3), AQs (2), AKs (3), AQo (7), AKo (9), 22-JJ (60), QQ (3), KK (6), AA (3). i want to discount the nut end of that because he only min-raised but i'll leave it in

1 fold, Hero calls $0.50,

seems standard to such a poorly sized open with the positional advantage, no habitual 3bettors behind me etc etc.

MP2 calls $0.50,

22-JJ(60), ATs+(11), ATo+(34), KTs+(11), KJo+(21), QTs+(6), QJo(9), JT(16), T9s-65s(20)

the rest are irrelevant as the hand plays out.

Flop: ($2.60) 8

, 10

, J

(5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $2.10,

his Cbet is 75%. i doubt he cbets too light though on such a wet board and into 4 (?) villains. although this flop does have like 70% of his range at least a gutterball to the nuts. range:
AJs+, AQo+, 77+, KQs

Hero calls $2.10,

i decide to flat for a couple of reasons:
- his cbet range appears strong, so my fold equity appears low
- we're deep so my implied odds are good
- i don't want to raise/be forced to fold by a 3b
- i want to the dudes behind me to come in and make it multiway.

MP2 raises to $7.12 (All-In),

this dude's short as all hell and so can only really shove or fold here i think:
77-JJ(21), AT+(39), KTs+(9), KJo+(18), QTs+(5), QJo(7), JT(9), T9s(3) , 98s(3) s

2 folds, UTG calls $5.02,

this is what really confuses me. wtf is this dude's flatting range? i really think sets are discounted, because he's still relatively deep vs me, and the board is pretty damn wet. i imagine he would be looking to get the money in ASAP with 88,TT,JJ. so that leaves:
AJs+, AQo+, KQs. 99, QQ+. he may or may not have gutter/two overcard hands still in his range like AQ,AK.

the total pot when he flats the AI is 7.12 + 7.12 + 2.10 + 2.6 = 18.94.
and we have roughly 25 behind should i call. i'm not going to try to do any in-depth mathsy shit because frankly i'm too retarded to deal with sidepots, and the chance of having to contest the main pot 3way x amount of the time etc etc. basically, to shove, i'm risking 33 to win 19.
33/33+19 = 63% required FE to breakeven in a vacuum. i have 25% equity against top set, so i doubt shoving is ever -EV (he obviously has more hands in is range than top set). flatting sucks because the pot becomes locked up, which basically renders any fold equity i may have had for turn + river dead, and means i have to rely on my 25-40% equity exclusively. so i decided to jam.

Hero raises to $33.25 (All-In), 1 fold

Turn: ($23.96) A

(2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($23.96) 10

(2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $23.96 | Rake: $1.19

aaaaaaaaanyway turns out the guy behind me had JT. against that hand i have 32% equity. my contribution to the total pot was <32% so it was +EV from a results oriented sense. just wanted to go through that one because the different stack sizes and things kind of threw me off during the play of the hand. and i wasn't sure if i was just spewing through lack of a real idea of what UTG's flatting range was.

bikes

03-24-2011, 09:58 PM

#23 (permalink)

a hot damn mess
Administrator

Join Date: Nov 2007

Posts: 2,448

shoving for the reasons you shoved is pretty bad

rpm

03-25-2011, 12:53 AM

#24 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

can you please elaborate?

rpm

03-25-2011, 01:37 AM

#25 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

opener is 50/50/0 over 2 hands
first calller is 23/8/0 over 26
small blind is 70/5/0 over 20

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($25.07)
BB ($25.25)
UTG ($8.75)
UTG+1 ($26.02)
MP1 ($16.50)
MP2 ($12.89)
Hero (CO) ($50.55)
Button ($25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K

, A

2 folds, MP1 bets $0.75,

something like 22+,AJs+,AQo+,KQs

MP2 calls $0.75,

22-QQ, A2s+,ATo+,KTs+,KTo+,Q9s+,QTo+,J9s+,JTo,T8s-64s,T9s-65s

Hero raises to $2,

my range here (for this sizing) is actually exclusively AK. i deliberately 3bet it small because i wanted to increase the likelihood that these guys continue with worse aces. with the fish in the pot my whole 3b range is probably JJ+,AK

1 fold, SB calls $1.90,

range = huge. like all 22-JJ, all suited/offsuit aces, all broadways, and a whole heap of T/Q/J/Kxs. this guy was another reason i'm 3betting AK for value.

1 fold, MP1 calls $1.25

same as opening range i suspect:
22+,AJs+,AQo+,KQs

Flop: ($7) 4

, A

, 2

(3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $4,
My effectives are as follows:
SB - ~$23
MP1 ~14.50

because i can't get it in over 2 streets with the weakest player/deepest stack, i decided to bet a little small an planned to go for three streets. there are only 6 combinations in MP1's range, and 18 in SBs, which are currently ahead of me. and both have >20 which are calling a bet dead to 3 outs. it's a WA/WB, also betting smaller gets a streets from 55-JJ that i might not otherwise. so it seemed logical.

1 fold, MP1 calls $4

55-JJ, AJs+,AQo+

Turn: ($15) K

(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $4, MP1 calls $4
this is a weird one. the SPR is like 0.66. i can easily get it in on this street. but i kind of felt like he would call more liberally if i used two streets. unless he C/C'd a set on the flop he's drawing dead, and i can't think of any hands which picked up BDFD's. so it's not like i strictly need to get the money in here for equity protectin or anything else. anyway so i decided to bet tiny and aim to put the rest in on the riv.

River: ($23) 3

(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $7, MP1 calls $6.50 (All-In)

Total pot: $36 | Rake: $1.80

pretty boring hand. all i want to know about is people's plans for the turn? which has the higher EV - sticking it in on the turn? aiming for two streets? does it even matter? maybe i should post this in the BC quick check thread. i'm often unsure in spots like these.

rpm

03-25-2011, 02:02 AM

#26 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

SB is 40/10 over 10
BB is 0/0/0 over 10

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($25.85)
SB ($23.88)
BB ($8.13)
UTG ($16.90)
MP1 ($16.72)
MP2 ($68.83)
CO ($19.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4

, 3

4 folds, Hero bets $0.60,

this may be a bit loose, but my standard BU ATS sizing means i only need ~60% folds in a vacuum, and it doesn't seem to encourage people to spaz out against me (like min-raising does. tried that). so wotev

SB calls $0.50, BB calls $0.35

blah blah ranges. they define themselves pretty quickly in this one

Flop: ($1.80) K

, J

, 3

(3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

i check it back because none of the range "all broadways" is folding, which i feel makes up a large portion of these guys ranges.

Turn: ($1.80) 4

(3 players)
SB bets $1.80, BB calls $1.80, Hero raises to $8,

i felt like i had no choice but to raise here with two flush draws on the board, and a whole heap of OESD's/gutters. i was aiming for a size that would let me jam any river that was a 3-9.

SB raises to $23.28 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls $15.28

so i just wanted to check out some different ranges for this call. at the time my thinking was "there are only 11 combos in his range which beat me {33,44,KJ}, and there are 12 combos of KQ, 12 combos of AK, plus a whole heap of FD+gutterballs, pair/FD, FD/OESD's he could have".

so pot is 26.88 and i have to call 15.28
15.28/(15.28 + 26.88) = 36%

after running a heap of different scenarios in stove, he HAS to be shoving KQ or AK with some frequency here for this to be a call. i'm pretty sure he would be looking to get it in with KQ so i don't mind the call. he obviously had KJ or i wouldn't be posting

River: ($50.16) 5

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $50.16 | Rake: $2.50

Vi-Zer0Skill

03-27-2011, 05:38 PM

#27 (permalink)

Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Nov 2006

Posts: 1,742

bet the flop man, you can get better hands to fold (55-88) and draws to peel. With hands I cbet but don't wanna get check/raised I size my bets pretty big, like 5/6PSB. Checking behind sucks because calling a turn bet isn't going to be profitable unless you improve with one of your five outs. Your hand is effectively a weak semibluff with no SD value so put it in the lower portion of your cbet range rather than the top of your 'giving up' range.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carroters

Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools

bikes

03-27-2011, 05:43 PM

#28 (permalink)

a hot damn mess
Administrator

Join Date: Nov 2007

Posts: 2,448

raise/calling with bottem 2 is not a very good idea here at all

Vi-Zer0Skill

03-27-2011, 05:48 PM

#29 (permalink)

Reagan's Kid
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Join Date: Nov 2006

Posts: 1,742

for the hand above that last one just jam the turn. he's less likely to think you could be bluffing if you gaybet turn+riv.

I think what bikes is saying in the hand three hands above is that just because going all in may not be -EV doesn't mean you should go all in. Personally I like the shove based on your math and assessment of UTGs range. One thing I would add is you should consider how you would 'weight' the combinations of hands in his range. Like I think UTGs range is at least 33% QQ+, and it may be 50% or higher I don't play full ring. Also do you have any idea how often he would fold a big pairs to your shove? He may be frustrated from having to 4b/fold (if it happened during this session) and won't fold now that he has a hand.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carroters

Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools

Vi-Zer0Skill

03-27-2011, 05:51 PM

#30 (permalink)

Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Nov 2006

Posts: 1,742

ahh I see you are including number of combinations next to your ranges, my bad.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carroters

Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools

rpm

03-28-2011, 05:05 AM

#31 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

Quote:

Originally Posted by bikes

raise/calling with bottem 2 is not a very good idea here at all

so do you prefer raise/fold or just flatting. i feel i'm missing out on a ton of value just flatting two pair here.

rpm

03-28-2011, 05:06 AM

#32 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

interesting. i've been thinking about doing just this recently. turning the very worst one pair hands in my range, on certain boards, into "5-out semi-bluffs" on the flop whereas i would normally check them back because SD value, very little better fold etc. hmm.

ps thanks for the comments guys. it's great to get some feedback on this kind of stuff.

rpm

03-28-2011, 11:39 PM

#33 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

i'm just going to go ahead and keep posting hand histories. most of which will be utterly boring for anyone who reads this. but that is how i get better. i realise how standard this one is but i'm hoping to get daily HH"s in which i value bet for analysis of calling ranges etc and as it turned out, i didn't get many opportunities to value bet yesterday.

villain is 14/11 over 100%. no other real reads but he seems competent.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($9.89)
UTG ($27.09)
UTG+1 ($6.87)
MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($67.68)
MP3 ($12.55)
CO ($7.27)
Hero (Button) ($25.25)
SB ($10.93)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A

, A

UTG bets $0.85, 5 folds,

i guess his opening range is something like 66+,AJs+,AQo+, maybe some SC's. can't tell without reads.

Hero raises to $2.90,

against a seemingly competent player opening UTG i'm probably only 3-betting QQ+ here. although i have been thinking about UTG opening ranges (well, mine specifically) and i think there may be some vulnerability to 3b "bluffs" there worth looking into. anyway

2 folds, UTG calls $2.05

i don't know how bad he is in 3bet pots but i imagine he continues with no tighter than TT+,AK, and no wider than 66+,AK. i obviously get a shitload of value from this range.

Flop: ($6.15) 4

, 10

, 7

(2 players)
UTG bets $3, Hero calls $3

if i was to try to infer anything from his sizing, i would say he is "trying to see where he's at" more so than value-betting. i can see him doing this with all overpairs, and maybe sets, though even if he has all the sets in his range, it's still predominantly overpairs. i flat because
- i block the NFD, he is either dead to two outs, or i am dead to outs. we're WA/WB here when he can't have any flush draws
- i will be able to get it in over T+R without having to take any non-standard sizing
- he may be intending to bet/fold like JJ-QQ (and his sizing seems to indicate this)
- i block 50% of the scare cards for KK, 25% for QQ, and 16% for JJ. so it is slightly less likely that an action-killer will fall than if i had, for example, TT.

i'm guessing my equity here is ~70% (65% as it turns out) if he has all sets and all overpairs, and it only improves the more we discount 44,77 etc. (

Turn: ($12.15) 2

(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6.50, UTG calls $6.50

this is just a sucker bet basically, making sure i will be setting him a price he can't refuse on the river.

assuming he calls the same range as flop, i imagine my turn equity would be loosely the same as my flop equity, because it is such a clear-cut WA/WB situation, the equity between being dead to two outs with two cards to come isn't significantly better than with one card. etc etc.

River: ($25.15) 6

(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $12.85 (All-In), UTG calls $12.85

we put the rest in, he shows KK, and i conclude the analysis of the most standard HH i've ever put any post-game thought to! TA-DA!

Total pot: $50.85 | Rake: $2

rpm

03-29-2011, 12:26 AM

#34 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

villain here is 14/13/10 over ~110.
his ATS is currently 30. fold to 3b is 1/2
he probably sees me as being kind of spastic, in terms of number i'd guess like 19/16 with 3 or 4% 3bet.

I'm just going to look at some different opening/continuing ranges in the hope of getting a feel for when to open up my value:bluff ratio for 3bet hands so i can hopefully add value to the "nut" end of my 3b range, and also make more money by exploiting people who fold to 3b's too much. cool.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($9.20)
MP2 ($36.70)
MP3 ($25)
CO ($20.69)
Hero (Button) ($25)
SB ($9.70)
BB ($25)
UTG ($28.24)
UTG+1 ($19.58)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 3

, K

5 folds, CO bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2.30

granted this may not be the absolute best choice of hand to 3bet (i don't really like flatting A2-A7s here so they would be great choices to 3b as bluffs) but i do have a blocker to KK and AK, and i also have the sootedness etc. so now for some ranges:

first, i'm risking 2.3 to win 1.1, so my breakeven fold frequency in a vacuum is going to be ~67-68% if my mental calculator isn't retarded.

opening:
22+ (72), A2s+(46), A7o+(81), K8s+(18), KTo+(27), Q8s+(16), Q9o+(36), J7s+(16), J9o+(24), T7s+(12), T9o(12), 97s+(8), 98o(12), 87(16), 76(16), 65s(4)

that comes to 416 combos on first count, which is good enough for me. it is also 33% of total hands according to pokerstove, so hopefully reflects the size of his actual opening range give or take 5% of hands due to an unreliable sample size.

now some different continuing ranges:

77+,AK (57 combos): 13% of opening range, 87% folds
77+,AQ+ (73 combos): 17% of opening range, 83% folds
22+,AK (84 combos): 20% of opening range, 80% folds
22+,AQ+,KQs (94 combos): 22% of opening range, 78% folds
22+,AJ+,KQ (132 combos): 31% of opening range, 69% folds
22+,AJ+,KQ,QJs-76s (156 combos): 37% of opening range, 63% folds

so we can see that is pretty damn +EV to 3bet "bluff" this guy. even if he flats as many hands as 22+,AJ+,KQ+ our 3bet is still +EV in a vacuum WITHOUT even considering any postflop equity. also, this guy's kind of in a "damned if you do, damned if you dont" kind of spot because (assuming he doesn't adjust his opening range, which should be his first adjustment to my 3bet range being composed of 50% or more "bluffs") to become unexploitable by 3b bluffs, he is going to have to start flatting a pretty large and weak (in terms of relative hand strength) range OOP to my 3bets, and is going to have to C/F a loooooot of flops (due to the predominance of small-mid pairs which probably only continue when they flop a set 1 in every 9 flops) and also suffer RIO on some the weaker broadways like AQ,AJ,KQ.

as best i understand it, my choice of 3bet range depends on his 4bet+ tendencies.

if he 4bets a "linear" range, as best i understand it, we're best to polarise our 3bet range between hands we continue to a 4b with (call this the "nut" part of our 3b range), and hands we gladly muck to a 4b and which weren't profitable in our calling range. this is so we don't end up turning hands very strong hands such as JJ-QQ and AK into bluffs by 3betting them and then having to fold. afaik the best approach is to play the maximum amount of hands we can with a positive expectation.

actually could i get some clarification on that?
let's say this guy ONLY 4bets a super strong range, call it KK+. or QQ+,AK at absolute widest. should we then be polarising our 3bet range (ie take x amount of hands from the top of our folding range and 3betting them as well as the hands we intend to continue to a 4b with) to exploit his high fold to 3bet?

but then the thought "hands like JJ and QQ have easily >50% equity against any continuing range which flats pairs worse than 99, so they should be +EV 3bets, right?" came into my head. acccording to the logic of the last paragraph, this would be "turning them into bluffs" if we 3bet them with intentions of folding to 4b.

so can we 3b for value with intentions of folding?
or should we not risk having to fold hands which do so well vs his continuing range?

that got a little off-topic and probably incoherent. if it's legible, i'd love to hear some other people's thoughts.

rpm

04-05-2011, 07:57 AM

#35 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

recently started incorporating some 50nl 100bb FR (and deep games but i only buy in for 100bb), and 100nl 40bb deep games. playing 50nl has made me more aware of what i think are some leaks in my game, probably due to playing against opponents who are more able to exploit my leaks. but i certainly think i am +EV in both games assuming i'm not playing my C-game. there are still rampant retards to value-bet and never-adjusting nits to steal pots from etc. i won't claim that i've "moved up" as such because i'll drop back to consolidate at 25nl if i start spewing, or lose too many buy-ins for comfort at the hands of the poker gods. but 50nl will be my main stake for the time being. i'm also aiming to make ironman status because it seems to improve rakeback to some degree and it is a feasible goal, even for a volume-nit, at 50nl.

WeaselT

04-05-2011, 09:43 PM

#36 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2009

Location: Winter Park

Posts: 300

NH sir. This is the same thing I started doing. No reason not to unless you know you are off your game or under-rolled.

Quote:

there are still rampant retards to value-bet and never-adjusting nits to steal pots from etc.

soo true. GL!

rpm

06-08-2011, 01:14 AM

#37 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

so i decided to dig this thing up from the depths of the blogs and operations forum. i'm just going to use this thread to dump all my mental clutter. plans, notes for improvement, goals, rules, concepts, progress reports, whatever. my poker brain seems to be more active more often when i'm regularly updating one of these things.

been running like jamie gold lately. up something like 2.2k bb (not PTBB) at 50nl this month. temptation is high to move on up to 100nl (especially after some successful bumhunting expeditions) but i know i have an absolute fuckton i can improve on which is probably best done while still at the 50's so that the transition up to 100nl is a smoother one. so i'll stick it out at the 50's where i'm more comfortable and i know more about the player pool for the time being (probably until i clear the $650 platinum bonus - should take about 2 months)

here's my graph for the year thus far (obviously unsustainable winrate but wotev. it's nice to run good.)

SO.

goals for the remainder of the month:
- 7.5k veeps for platinum star
- watch/take notes on 1 Grinderschool video per day
- don't look at the fucking cashier (i've been really bad with this lately. has to stop)

i also made a list somewhere of topics which i think i could refine my skills in that i intend to study in the future using things like flopzilla, pokerstove, etc from memory it included:
- the preflop 3/4/5 bet game
- playing postflop in 3b pots
- cbetting, double barreling, triple barreling
- blind play (optimal stealing/restealing ranges etc etc)
- bet sizing in general
- analysis of regs in my database along lines of weak/balanced/strong ranges and how to go about making life hell for them.

so i might post some of my typical bullshit on one or more of these topics in this thread in the future as i study them. might not.

hope all is swell elsewhere in the world.

philly and the phanatics

06-08-2011, 02:21 AM

#38 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Dec 2006

Posts: 1,109

congratulations my man, thats an awesome graph

rpm

06-08-2011, 03:15 AM

#39 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

winrate would be < 2BB/100 if it weren't for the heater beginning at ~46k hands. i expect it to even back out over a larger sample. i appreciate the kind words nonetheless. ty sir

Micro2Macro

06-08-2011, 03:22 AM

#40 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Jan 2009

Location: http://three-pair.com/

Posts: 4,463

siiiiimmmmmplifyyy maaaaaaaaaaaannn

rpm

07-05-2011, 11:22 PM

#41 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

although i bailed on the platinum chase (it was only really designed for motivation to forge a regular grind/study routine, which didn't appear worth it in the end), my study habits have been good of late. volume lacking but meh. recently switched to playing mostly 6max and i have started watching carroters' grinderschool videos which are, imo, absolutely fucking excellent. playing 25nl just for the time being to try to get used to whatever differences in general gameplay exist between FR and 6m. hoping to be back playing 50nl in the near future. i binked my uni results with two high distinctions and a distinction (i thought my mark for the distinction subject would be a pass at best) and am heading into my last semester of undergraduate study. though i may take a shot at postgrad next year because my scholarship goes for another year after this one if i continue studying, but i lose it if i take as much as one year off. plus i fucking hate 9-5 work and still suck wayyyyyy too much at poker to rely on that for anything more than rakeback and some <4ptbb winrate at the micro steaks. rungood graph from last month attached. this is predominantly 50nl FR, and predominantly played before the 9th or 10th of the month, when i turned into a life degen and got next to nothing done except too much reefer and too much alcohol

PlayToWin

07-09-2011, 04:10 AM

#42 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2008

Posts: 606

Apparently, you're already winning. No doubt due to your months of study. You want coaching for what reason? Oh, you wanna be another Kathy Liebert. I don't blame you. She's my fav female player as well. I hadn't heard anything about her in about 3 years, but apparently she's still playing.
Kathy Liebert - Poker Player Profile

Explain...what I do for a living without saying "I make monies in da 600 enels by pwnin' tha donk bitches". Instead I say "I'm a online financial redistribution broker". - Sasquach991

rpm

07-09-2011, 12:07 PM

#43 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

i think this is the biggest pot i've ever won online

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($149.95)
BB ($149.20)
UTG ($126.45)
UTG+1 ($66.70)
MP1 ($54.35)
Hero (MP2) ($197.55)
MP3 ($206.15)
CO ($136.25)
Button ($127.50)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 10

, Q

3 folds, Hero bets $2, MP3 calls $2, 4 folds
Flop: ($5.65) K

, Q

(2 players)
Hero bets $4, MP3 calls $4
Turn: ($13.65) 7

(2 players)
Hero bets $11, MP3 calls $11
River: ($35.65) 10

(2 players)
Hero bets $28, MP3 raises to $56, Hero raises to $180.45 (All-In), MP3 calls $124.45
Total pot: $396.55 | Rake: $3

he had Q2s

PlayToWin

07-09-2011, 06:38 PM

#44 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2008

Posts: 606

Def nice pot. Is that just a bet/call on a blank river?

Explain...what I do for a living without saying "I make monies in da 600 enels by pwnin' tha donk bitches". Instead I say "I'm a online financial redistribution broker". - Sasquach991

rpm

07-10-2011, 05:59 AM

#45 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

i honestly don't know. it would be a tough decision.

according to PT3 i'm 10bi below EV so far this month (~9k hands) and that doesn't even take into account the times when things like this happen, and my money actually goes "all-in" bad:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (UTG+1) ($125)
MP1 ($98.20)
MP2 ($133.45)
CO ($50)
Button ($126)
SB ($125)
BB ($179.80)
UTG ($185.55)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J

, J

1 fold, Hero bets $2, MP1 raises to $5.50, 5 folds, Hero calls $3.50
Flop: ($12.55) 5

, J

, 2

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $6.50, Hero raises to $19, MP1 calls $12.50
Turn: ($50.55) 10

(2 players)
Hero bets $23, MP1 calls $23
River: ($96.55) Q

(2 players)
Hero bets $60, MP1 calls $50.60 (All-In)
Total pot: $197.75 | Rake: $3
Results:
Hero had J

, J

(three of a kind, Jacks).
MP1 had Q

, Q

(three of a kind, Queens).
Outcome: MP1 won $194.75

my respect for people who are able to play headsup (especially HU PLO) or any other extremely high variance game and stay remotely sane is currently going through the roof. in a weird way, this has motivated me to want to put more hours into developing my poker game and made me really determined to study my opponents' strategies and basically try to learn to beat the shit out of them. let's hope that happens. for now i'm going to go to a local pub, get drunk, and enjoy some live blues music. what better way to spend a sunday afternoon?

gl on da grind

rpm

08-11-2011, 08:48 AM

#46 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

so, on the off-chance that anyone has a non-zero amount of interest in what i'm up to, i dropped back down to 25nl 6m for ~15k hands to re-gather some confidence and try to sharpen my game after running like complete shit at 50nl and starting to notice some tilt creeping in. i have since re-gained some confidence and have decided to move back to 50nl 6m, however i am only playing 2 tables at a time, and only playing after a pre-game routine of exercise amongst other things to try to ensure i'm as close as i can be to my A-game. i'm not 1 bit concerned with making money/volume/maintaining any VIP statuses to ensure reasonable rakeback. what i am interested in is trying to get "settled in" at 50nl 6max and working on my game like a motherfucker. volume can come later. growth in skill level and confidence >>>>>>>>>>> volume as far as i'm concerned at the moment.

i think i'll start posting up a ton more hands in here as well. i've recently been doing that by hand in a blank exercise book because i prefer handwriting shit than typing it where feasible. but it's pretty tedious handwriting out all the stack sizes and all the other shit which the HH converter is absolutely golden for doing. so, if (unlikely) i actually stick to one of the plans i make for more than two days, i'll likely be clogging up this forum again with excessively long HH's and analyses so that i can come closer to understanding how to deal with ranges, bets, future streets, SPRs and whatnot.

adios

rpm

08-24-2011, 04:13 AM

#47 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

so lately i've been playing more aggro/bluffing far more than i usually would. i think i am starting to get a sense for when an opponents range is ridiculously weak and un-balanced. but i also think i've been running a bit hot in terms of running into the bluffy part of their range more than i would on average. so i'll post some hands and have a look. really i just want to put flopzilla to some use and get a feel for required fold %'s in different spots. i think i'll find that i'm risking actually far too much in these bluffs.

edit: ^ fuck that. hands removed.

rpm

08-24-2011, 04:17 AM

#48 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

villain is 29/18/3 (VPIP/PFR/3b) over 90.
100% fold to 3b (4), 32% ATS (22), 14% fold to CB (1/7), and has check/raised 2/3 flops.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP ($37.70)
CO ($266.30)
Hero (Button) ($56.30)
SB ($20.25)
BB ($50)
UTG ($68.40)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A

, 9

2 folds, CO bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, CO calls $2.50

i think a reasonable flatting range for villain here would be something like:
77-QQ,AJs-AQs,AQo. probably actually 4b/felts QQ some %. he may even flat AK sometimes but i suspect most regs will just 4b/call it off instead of playing it OOP in a 3b pot. KQs may also be in there.

breaks down to:
77 (6)
88 (6)
99 (3)
TT (6)
JJ (6)
QQ (3) discounted due to probably being 4b sometimes
AJs (3)
AQs (3)
AQo (9)

Flop: ($8.75) 3

, 2

, 7

(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $5, CO raises to $13.25, Hero raises to $52.30 (All-In), 1 fold

flopzilla tells me he has no pair/no draw 37.5% of the time (he has an overpair 57.1%, a set 7.14%, naked ace high 35.7%) on this board. my cbet requires 5/5+13.75 = 36% folds assuming no pot equity or fold equity on later streets. so given that i never have 0% equity against his calling range, and can squeeze out some extra EV by profitably barreling some runouts, and i also expect to be C/R'd a decent amount of the time - and i think i can jam profitably over that C/R, this seems like a good cbet so long as i'm willing to play back at him some of the time when he C/R's me.

when he does check/raise me he has a really hard time repping a hand. he basically never has 33/22. and he may not even have 77 in his range (he probably shouldn't). he can't have any FD's due to my blocker, except maybe KhQh which i'm flipping against anyway. and i doubt he's ever got a de-polarised kind of range where he plans to C/R/call a hand like QQ/JJ to a jam (and neither should he really given he'll almost always be getting it in vs overpairs or FD+overcard hands)

my jam is risking 47.30 to win 27. 47.30/74.3 = 63% required fold frequency (actually less because i have ~16% equity against a reasonable calling range of {77,KhQh} and it doesn't change much even if he does have QQ/JJ)

given he has shown himself to be pretty C/R happy over a small sample, i imagine he would be C/Ring at least all of his backdoor flush draws (2 combos - AJdd,AQdd), as well as probably a decent amount of other Ax hands because they missed the flop and he thinks i'm full of shit when i cbet this board (plus he thinks he can make me fold AK)

so, some fold %'s vs different ranges (assuming he only felts 77,KhQh):
77,KhQh,AJdd,AQdd = 33% folds
77,KhQh,AJdd,AQs = 50% folds
77,KhQh,AJdd,AQs,AQo = 77% folds
77,KhQh,AJs,AQs,AQo = 79% folds

i think the latter two look more likely than the first two, which makes my jam +EV if my ranges are close. also, he may not even flat KhQh preflop, in which case all of those fold frequencies are higher, because he has less felting combos in his range.

as an aside thought - if we have decided we are going to attempt to re-bluff this guy after he has check/raised, which line is better?

A - jam flop

B - float flop to jam over turn lead (give him a chance to fire another street with a weak range?)

rpm

09-06-2011, 03:42 AM

#49 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,040

so i hit 100k hands today and thought i'd upload a graph to mark 269 hours of online poker this year. i'm starting coaching with carroters in the near future, so i'm anticipating being about 11.25ptBB/100 over the next 100k, give or take 0.000025ptBB/100

stakes 25nl-100nl FR and 6m. if the line is going up, it's probably FR. if it's going down, 6m.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

+ $726 in bonuses and rakeback, not factoring in that i have 4/5 of the FPPs required for the $650 platinum bonus, which i intend to purchase. i guess that means 726 + 520 = $1246 in RB.

supa

09-06-2011, 04:21 PM

#50 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2010

Posts: 986

Nice work rpm. I remember awhile back you saying that you'd be at 100nl in like 5yrs and it's prolly been less than a year. Solid work ethic bro.

“Right thoughts produce right actions and right actions produce work which will be a material reflection for others to see of the serenity at the center of it all”

Put hero on a goddamn range part II- The 6max years

Quote:

Originally Posted by d0zer

start using your brain more and vagina less

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