From Keith's suggestions, I have 11.4k hands for the following filters.
1. Filter for 3bets preflop - graph should be steady upward profit.
Check. I have 354 3bets, +$20 profit, +$1 from showdown, rest from non-showdown. That's 141 BB/ 100 win rate. My 3b ~ 8% in 5- and 6-handed action (8% of possible opportunities, ~3% of total hands).
2. Filter for cold call = true. Should be a profit, if not, too much trash in range.
Check - sort of. I'm up ~$7 over 941 hands (19 BB/100). But I'm running way ahead of EV which -$16 ( - 44 BB/100). A glut of "big" suckouts are probably masking how horrible-bad my ranges are here. I'm down $22 in non-showdown pots, up $30 in showdowns. With bad luck on the river, I'm shipping a huge amount of chips here.
I've already adjusted here. I've tightened up the flatting ranges in all positions, and I'm attacking the fish/maniacs by folding more, 3betting more and waiting for good spots. I don't really flat premium hands, so the way to play is raisy daisy (ip) or fold the crap right damn now (all positions).
3. Filter pfr = true. Should be solid positive up up garph. Blue line and Red line should be upward trends.
Check. 2.9k pfr's, + $37 (31 BB/100), and that's 2 BI below EV. Won with showdown is break even, profit is the red line. When I filter for 5- and 6-handed, both Red and Blue are very strong positive gainers. Short-handed, I'm losing a ton with the Blue line, but I'm nearly $30 below EV, which is positive. Wheee!! You feesh are way ahead of me, but I'm a comin' back!!
4. Check for 60 < fold to 3bet = true < 70.
I'm at 73.3% fold to 3bet, so I'm a bit high. At 70% or more folds, Keith points out, opponents can 3bet any two cards and show a profit.
5. SB reraise steal and BB reraise steal both > 10% (actually, Keith's point is slightly more nuanced, but it would take a while to build the filter needed, so I'm doing the quick and dirty version):
Check. SB 3bet steal = 17% and BB 3bet steal = 14%.
6. Filter BTN 1st to act, should be 50-60% pfr
Check? My pfr in this instance is 71%. In my defense, I table select hard, and try to get nits to my left and agros to my right. When I don't have the right table, I go start a new one or find more fish. Still, something to think about, as I'm wide open to any light 3bet from the blinds, probably why my 3bet calling percentage is so high. I'm just playing trash a lot from the blinds. Still, big upward garph, so I'm not being exploited, yet. That will surely happen a level or two higher, though.
7. Flop cbet success should be approaching 42%, definitely not lower than 40% (cbetting too much), not higher than 50% (cbetting too little).
Check. I'm at 40.5% success. Can cbet a bit less, probably. Garph is up up up, with Blue up moderately and most of the $$ from the Red line, as expected.
Thanks, Keith, that was informative. For anyone keeping score at home, there was a lot more in the message. I just listed the filters and graphs Keith suggested along with the "what to look for."
I'm headed for bed. I'm feeling confident and happy with my game. I've tightened up (though not as much as some have suggested). I ran about 29/23/2.6 since my realization on Thursday when I decided to tighten up. I see two positives.
First, all my days of winning 6max before Black Friday, I was AF > 4. I had no diversity to my postflop play, and value-towned myself a good bit. I'm working hard to add the thoughtful check/call, the check/behind, the pot control and other things that make me harder to beat postflop. Calling may seem an odd thing to want to add in, but seriously, I just used to bet/bet/bet, raise/raise/raise and fold/fold/fold. I'm getting a lot better at adding (a little bit of) trickiness to my game by simply letting agro players bet themselves into trouble against me. I'm not slowplaying big hands, just looking for good opportunities to float serial cbettors when I'm likely way ahead, and maybe even float again on the turn. An AF ~ 2.5 seems like a major improvement to me. I know I hate playing against the 2.5's postflop, as they're very hard to trap and difficult to run over, too. When they call 2 streets, I'm sweating.
Second, I'm hitting the ranges I was hoping for. I've never played this wide open before, and the last three days seem like a comfortable spot. I could tighten up more, surely, but I can also play this loose and stay aggressive. With the action players to my right, and nits to my left, I'm happy to play a lot of pots, flat a bit more and 3bet small and aggressively when there are opportunities.
Jeez, it's bed time. Good luck at the tables, people!!