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SB: $5.02 (100.4 bb)
BB: $4.83 (96.6 bb)
UTG: $2.97 (59.4 bb)
MP: $1.28 (25.6 bb) {61/1, 25% fold to CB, 131 hands, extremely loose/passive player}
Hero (CO): $6.05 (121 bb)
BTN: $6.36 (127.2 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with [RANGE]
UTG folds, MP calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.17, 3 folds, MP calls $0.12
Flop: ($0.41) 6 Q 3 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($0.41) 3 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks
River: ($0.41) A (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.29
So here's a hand. Our respective ranges before I bet here are something like this:
Board: 3hQc6c3sAd
Equity Win Tie
Hero 74.86% 70.60% 4.27% { JJ-77, AdKd, AhKh, AsKs, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, KdTd, KhTh, KsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Ad9d, Ah9h, As9s, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, AKo, AJo-A9o, KJo-KTo, JTo }
MP 25.14% 20.87% 4.27% { 77+, 55-44, 22, A5s-A4s, A2s, KJs-K4s, K2s, Q5s-Q4s, Q2s, J4s+, J2s, T4s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A5o-A4o, A2o, KJo-K4o, K2o, Q5o, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o }
I'm betting all my top pairs and FDs OTF. I figure our opponent is probably going to be calling any pair; I think it's pretty unlikely he has trips or a boat as he would've bet into me on the river most of the time. Therefore he's calling 32% of his range. So to maximally exploit this player, given he's never going to adjust and I'm reasonably sure of my assessment of his range, I should be value betting every hand that has 50% + equity vs his calling range, which is:
MP { KK, JJ-77, 55-44, 22, A5s-A4s, A2s, K6s, Q5s-Q4s, Q2s, J6s, T6s, 96s, 86s, 76s, 64s+, A5o-A4o, A2o, K6o, Q5o, 76o }
Which means I'm betting:
Hero { JJ-TT, AdKd, AhKh, AsKs, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, Ad9d, Ah9h, As9s, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, AKo, AJo-A9o }
But this leaves me wondering what should I be doing with the rest of my range, namely KTs-KJs, KTo-KJo, JTs, JTo, 77-99 (-1 combo of each of the suited combos as I'm betting the club combos OTF), 63 combos. I don't think I should be betting 77-99 here as that's really just turning those hands into a bluff... They have too much showdown value. But my K high also has a ton of showdown value too, as my opponent's range is super wide after the check...
Board: 3hQc6c3sAd
Equity Win Tie
Hero 54.17% 43.10% 11.07% { KdJd, KhJh, KsJs }
MP 45.83% 34.76% 11.07% { 77+, 55-44, 22, A5s-A4s, A2s, KJs-K4s, K2s, Q5s-Q4s, Q2s, J4s+, J2s, T4s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A5o-A4o, A2o, KJo-K4o, K2o, Q5o, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o }
And hell even my J high has a reasonable amount of showdown value...
Board: 3hQc6c3sAd
Equity Win Tie
Hero 31.71% 25.46% 6.25% { JdTd, JhTh, JsTs }
MP 68.29% 62.04% 6.25% { 77+, 55-44, 22, A5s-A4s, A2s, KJs-K4s, K2s, Q5s-Q4s, Q2s, J4s+, J2s, T4s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A5o-A4o, A2o, KJo-K4o, K2o, Q5o, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o }
It's also worth noting that he's folding an exploitable amount, given his unexploitable folding frequency here would 59% and he's actually folding 68%. The fact that the hands I could bluff with have a ton of SDV coupled with the fact that he's folding an exploitable amount of the time has me wondering what I should do with my bluff possible hands.
So we have two options of what to do with these hands, check or bet...
Scenario one, we bet KTs-KJs, KTo-KJo, JTs, JTo as a bluff. This divides our range into:
Check: 15% ... (0.15)(0.805)(0.41)-(0.15)(0.195)(0) ..... = 0.0495
VBet: 48% ..... (0.48)(0.823)(0.7)-(0.48)(0.177)(0.29) .. = 0.2519
Bluff: 37% ..... (0.37)(0.68)(0.41)-(0.37)(0.32)(0.29) .... = 0.0688
Which gives an overall eV for this strategy of: 0.3702
Now scenario two, we have KTs-KJs, KTo-KJo, JTs, JTo in our checking range. This divides our range into:
Check: 52% ... (0.52)(0.56)(0.41) ........................... = 0.1194
Vbet: 48% ..... (0.48)(0.85)(0.7)-(0.48)(0.15)(0.29) .. = 0.2647
Which gives an overall eV for this strategy of: 0.3841
So it appears, based on my analysis, that even though bluffing those hands would be profitable, checking them is slightly more profitable.
There, enough ramble..
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