Calling with draws
Something I worked on just recently was determining my equity and whether or not I could call with draws in different spots.
So the two main questions/calculations are:
1. How often do we need to be good?
= amount to call / (bet + pot + amount to call)
(more commonly known as bet/(bet+total pot) but that confuses me sometimes)2. How often do we hit on the next card?
Number of outs/Number of unseen cards in deckAnother useful equation is that for calculating implied odds:
Implied odds = bet / (pot + stack)
Right so onto the hands!
1. I post this one first because it surprised me the most. I knew chasing gutshots was bad, but just how bad was quite shocking.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (BB) ($16.34)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K, J
3 folds, SB bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.10
Flop: ($0.40) 6, A, Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.25, SB calls $0.25
Turn: ($0.90) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $0.20, Hero folds
Total pot: $0.90 | Rake: $0.04
Villain is 27/9 fish over 33 hands and has cbet 1/1 so far. Easy bet on the flop when checked to - taking it down so often, lots of good turns to pick up equity. Now when villain leads the turn, we're not doing so hot.
We need to be good here:
0.2 / 0.2 + 0.9 + 0.2 = 0.2 / 1.3 = 1 / 6.5Odds of hitting our gs on the river (assuming K's and J's are no good) are:
4 / 45 = 1 / 11Those are some sick odds you need to call with gssd's! I had never thought too much about it before, and while I usually fold spots like this, but I'm sure in times of tilt I've burned a stupid amount of money on 11:1 odds. Good fold.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (MP) ($10)
Preflop: Hero is MP with 6, A
1 fold, Hero bets $0.30, 3 folds, BB calls $0.20
Flop: ($0.65) 3, 5, K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.55, BB raises to $2, Hero calls $1.45
Turn: ($4.65) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $3.55, Hero raises to $7.70 (All-In)
Villain is unknown.
OTF we need to be good here:
1.45 / (2 + 0.65 + 0.55 + 1.45) = 1 / 2.75Odds of hitting on the turn are:
9 / 47 = 1 / 5.2With the implied odds vs a strong range and the chances of taking it down on the turn when villain shuts down, I saw this as an easy cbet/call.
OTT we'll take the implied odds into consideration since we appear to be up against a stronger range:
3.5 / (4.65 + 3.55 + 7.70) = 1 / 4.47We've picked up equity with our oesd, so odds of hitting on river are:
15 / 46 = 1 / 3.06Again, an easy call on the turn. At the time, I wasn't sure if I could call such a large bet, like 3/4 pot. I kind of knew I didn't have much fold equity with so little behind, but I didn't want to fold my hand and so I opted to shove. Awful. Calling would obv have been better where I'd be saving $4 the times I miss. Oops.
Something quite interesting I learned from this hand. So with the flush draw alone we can call 2/3 psb's but don't have the odds to call 3/4 psb's. The added oesd of course adds to our equity making it ok to call 3/4 psb's. This realisation will help me with bet sizing in future when I've got tp on a tt board or whatever.
I'll leave it at those two actually as those were the hands I learned the most from. The rest I went over were pretty bog standard as I just wanted to get a feel for when I could (not) call.