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~15 out flop play

  
 
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JoeHaw
Old 07-11-2009, 03:16 AM     Post subject: ~15 out flop play #1 (permalink)  
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JoeHaw
only 19 hands on villain who runs 39/0 w an AF of 40...?

$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Paulyjambo ($5.01)
UTG+1 Colto22 ($6.97)
MP1 McBoltersen ($5.84)
MP2 psicoper ($2.00)
MP3 bardo111 ($1.84)
CO Hero ($2.03)
BTN tgho ($1.60)
SB LeTourbillon ($6.96)
BB Thibaux ($3.52)

Pre-flop: ($0.03, 9 players) Hero is CO
Paulyjambo calls $0.02, Colto22 calls $0.02, 2 folds, bardo111 calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02, 1 fold, LeTourbillon calls $0.01, Thibaux checks

Flop: ($0.12, 6 players)
LeTourbillon checks, Thibaux checks, Paulyjambo checks, Colto22 bets $0.04, bardo111 calls $0.04, Hero raises to $0.14, LeTourbillon folds, Thibaux folds, Paulyjambo folds, Colto22 raises to $0.30, bardo111 folds, Hero goes all-in $2.01, Colto22 calls $1.71

Two questions here, one- since I may actually have LESS than 15 outs since villain is likely calling w QxXh etc, do I WANT FE here?

Also, if I'm betting purely for value, is this a bad push or should I have maybe 3x raised and pushed any reasonable turn?

Turn: ($4.18, 2 players)

River: ($4.18, 2 players)

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Old 07-11-2009, 03:42 AM #2 (permalink)  
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you're actually ahead of a queen and a flip against a set, so get it in
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jyms
Old 07-11-2009, 03:57 AM #3 (permalink)  
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jyms has a spectacular aura aboutjyms has a spectacular aura aboutjyms has a spectacular aura about
 Most of that 15 out equity is on the flop. getting in on the turn with 30% is far worse than 55%-60% on the flop.
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AFchung
Old 07-11-2009, 04:12 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Board: 7c Qh 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.479% 50.48% 00.00% 13493 0.00 { 9h8h }
Hand 1: 49.521% 49.52% 00.00% 13237 0.00 { 77-66, AQs, 76s, AQo, 76o }
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