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| settecba |
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UTG+1 is the donator in the table. He is playing almost any two, and calling raises with them. He is very passive pre and post flop. Usual lines he takes: l/c pre - c/c flop - c/c turn - c/c river(or c/f) His decision about c/f river or c/c is usually based in his holding at least some piece of the board or not(yes, he is getting to the river with air a lot of the time too). He has lost 1BI so far(about 50 hands) and rebuyed full. The presence of this player in the table changed table dynamics. Everyone was expecting to get a good hand and play against this guy. Last hands were mostly HU between him and some other player raising pre, who would usually get some of his money(when UTG+1 didnt suck out). MP2 is tight. I would say he is raising top 5% in this spot. If I call here I expect no more callers, except for UTG+1. Im 100% sure he is calling. Would you call? PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com SB ($1.90) BB ($10.25) UTG ($21.10) UTG+1 ($5.90) MP1 ($7.10) MP2 ($11.20) Hero (CO) ($11.35) Button ($9.45) Preflop: Hero is CO with K  , 101 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 1 fold, MP2 bets $0.40, Hero ??? |
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| ATOTHEC101 |
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| you say mp2 is only raising the top 5 percent of hands here, is k10s in the top 5 percent of hands? You have your answer. | |||
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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| Micro2Macro |
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MP2 may be raising a weaker range simply to isolate the fish who limped. You won't know if this is true unless you've seen it before, so probably fold...however, this is a great spot for a 3-bet if you have reason to believe MP2 is raising with a weaker range to get heads up with the fish. |
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here! "You are a degenerate Gaam-balur" http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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| ArcadianRock |
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| Fold. I wouldn't play this hand because you can't limp here, you have to reraise and if you're faced with a 4bet you really can't call. This is putting yourself in a mediocre situation where if a K hits you're still not sure where you are with that T. | |||
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what about ranges, pot odds and equity? or are we playing by % of hands now? We have 32.4% equity against top 5%. If UTG+1 folds, we're putting .40 into a 1.05 pot, which means we need 38% equity... so probably fold if we don't expect him to call If he's an aggressive player that's opening say 15% of his hands we can call and play in position post-flop as long as we don't expect to get squeezed by the people left to act or say we expect UTG+1 to come along and possibly one or both of the blinds then we have a hand that plays well multi-way If we expect to have a 3-way pot it's pretty close we're probably neutral ev preflop so we should only call if we feel we have a post-flop edge it's not "lol, he's raising 5% so we should call with 5%" |
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| Micro2Macro |
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here! "You are a degenerate Gaam-balur" http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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| Erpel |
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While I agree with "end of thread" I'll post my own thoughts as well. Initially I was completely agreeing with Micro - OP goes into much detail to explain how the presence of the fish completely changes the table dynamic and how everyone plays against him and then goes on to say the exact opposite about his villain (MP2) - that he is not widening his opening range and playing back at the fish. This sounds like broken logic related to MUB thinking. In fact, I think it's fair to assume that MP2 probably IS playing a wider range, also expecting his tight image will serve to get other people to fold and increase his chance of isolating the fish. With this in mind I also was tempted to think about 3betting with the expectation that MP2 will fold a large part of his range and that that would make it a profitable 3bet. The problem with 3betting is the fish. If the fish calls the 3bet, suddenly MP2 may be getting odds to call a 3bet as well and will be less likely to fold. This won't necessarily help us isolate the fish. KTs is not a hand I really want to play against MP2 in a 3bet pot with an SPR around 4. If the fish does call and MP2 does fold we'll have an SPR of 2 against the fish. In this case I'd probably check behind a lot if I miss (bet if I hit) and maybe try to bluff at the river depending on how the board looks. I think if we call the fish is quite likely to also call (or we may get 3/4 way by someone else calling) and we have a hand that plays well multiway, especially in position (which we are likely to be) - this is probably the best way to proceed. The only concern here is that the fish's stack is short so our total implied odds could be better. If we hit a K on the flop I wouldn't stack off to MP2, but would probably stack off to the fish if MP2 gets out of the way. |
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| ATOTHEC101 |
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| ok ill give a slightly different answer yet with the same result: fold. | |||
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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| Erpel |
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I think this is a prime example of the "If in doubt, fold" principle, but I think the underlying question posed by the OP is, if you were to play the hand given what is known, what other factors would need to be in your favour to play the hand, and how would you choose to play the hand and what would be your plan on different kinds of flops. |
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| RoyalProdigy |
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| I agree with micro2macro on this one. He could just be trying to isolate the guy but he might not. Your in the CO so you have possition. Heres my Q if MP2 didnt riase would you have. YES you would have...Probably the same amount MP2 did. I like the small ball strategy. So would i call here.....Yes because i know MP2s range so i can be comfortable with my hand because the guy UTG is a moron who is gonna come along for the ride. I bet MP2 is wondering and probably a little worried about what im calling with as well. I really think hes trying to isolate the fish here. If i would normally raise the hand then im usually gonna call to see a flop that is if the raisors bet isnt bigger than the bet i would have made. Yes hes only raising with 5% of hands but that dosnt mean fold instantly expecially with a fish in the pond!!! | |||
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Stack That Arab Money!!!
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| celtic123 |
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"A fold to a raise is a small mistake in poker" . I dont know who to attribute that quote to, I think it was in these forums and it was quoting some poker pro.I find it useful. |
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| settecba |
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I got really good answers here. So thanks. 2 more pieces of information I forgot to mention. ATM I thought MP2 was weak-tight. My table image was TAG. While playing this hand i felt that with the fish calling 100%(as I said, i was sure he was calling), and being IP against MP2, I could call here and play the hand. I didn´t consider a 3bet because I really thought MP2 range was as tight as posted. So I decided to call...and here´s what happened: PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com SB ($1.90) BB ($10.25) UTG ($21.10) UTG+1 ($5.90) MP1 ($7.10) MP2 ($11.20) Hero (CO) ($11.35) Button ($9.45) Preflop: Hero is CO with K , 101 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 1 fold, MP2 bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.30 Flop: ($1.35) 7 , Q, 4 (3 players)UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70, 1 fold So I have a flush draw. MP2 cbets 1/2pot. Calling here is my best option I think because I dont expect a raise from the fish, most of the time he is just calling and that is improving my pot odds. He folds, so we can forget about the fish. Turn: ($2.75) 3  (2 players)MP2 bets $1, Hero ??? Villain 2nd barrels 1/3ish pot. That looks very weak most of the time. It also means very strong some of the time, but with villains range(he could not have a very strong hand with the board), and a 2toflush board, I think that bet is weak. I said villains range preflop is top 5%. That could be {88+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+} That is actually 6.2%. After flop and turn small bets his range could be { 88+,AQs,AcJc,KQs,AQo } I keep 2nd pair type hands here because of the small cbets which dont tell me much about his range. I have 2 lines here to follow: 1) call turn. If i hit my flush draw(9/46 cards), I would say I can get him to "grr" call $1.90 more by the river. This is too optimistic, change it if you want.( a more reasonable option would be to expect to get $1.90 more only when his range is {QQ+,AQs,AQo,KQs). If i dont hit the flush(37/46 cards)i am folding to any bet or checking behind expecting to lose my $1 call on turn. 2) semi-bluff raise to $3. For analysis sake I would say villain is continuing with {QQ+,AQs,AQo,KQs). Which of these lines is best in terms of EV? |
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| lockpull |
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| I would fold preflop. As I played I would also have called the flop. The turn I would have folded or raised. | |||
 Decision making - When decisions are not based on information, it's called gambling
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| inV1NCEble |
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| easy fold imo. Just like ATOTHEC101 says | |||
 OMG POKERTRACKER IS RIGGED!
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| okiman |
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| Given you didn't fold preflop, your read of weak-tight, the weak looking turn bet, and given you are unlikely to get your $1.90 on the river if your flush comes (especially against a weak-tight player), I'd lean toward the raise. His weak turn bet makes top pair+ hands look less likely and I'd expect you to win the pot more than half the time right there, making it +EV (since you won't put any more money in on the river w/o hitting your flush and you are probably folding out the few, perhaps only, better flush draw(s) out there). The 3 also completes a straight draw, increasing the number of hands you can credibly represent here. | |||
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| okiman |
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| Plus if this is a regular you are likely to play with again (or others at the table are), your future turn raises will get less respect which would often help a TAG get more money on future hands against the observant opponents you're up against. | |||
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| ColdDecked |
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I like calling here. Even if you can only get $1.50 more on the river if you hit your flush, that makes the implied odds 5.25:1. And if you do hit the flush and bet $1.50, it would be less than 1/3 of the pot and most people at microstakes can't fold top pair or even middle pair to a bet that small. What do you think he thinks you have if you call the turn? If I were him, I'd probably put you on a flush draw or some Q. Now, if I were him and I have, say a middle pair like TT in this spot, and you called two streets, I'd believe that my pair is probably not any good, probably check/call or check/fold depending on how much you bet. Now if he checks on the river, you can try to bet around $3 to try and take it down. If he really did have a hand, and bets the river and you miss, then oh well, throw your hand away. You risked $1, rather than risking $3 if he really did have a hand. How much were you willing to call on the turn to draw to your flush anyways? And as for the semibluff to $3, he'd betting more than 3:1 to call, and you reopen up the betting so that if he has QQ+, he can push and you lose your chance of getting lucky. Another factor is how often you float with top pair good/top kicker. If you don't float with top pair that often, and a complete brick hits (since you say you're tag he probably won't think you have 56), it's hard to believe that the 3 helped you. If you choose to semibluff, you need to make it more than $3. I can't really see myself folding here either since the implied odds make the price right to call. |
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| Erpel |
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I'm not sure I can really answer that. I'm not feeling right about the range you're putting him on, especially with regards to the bet sizes he's putting out. Also I'd often expect all pocket pairs in the villain range pre-flop. Villain should be positionally aware and reacting to the fish so I wouldn't be surprised to see his range in this particular position to be upwards of 10% of hands. Anyway, to get back to the bet sizes - they're probably indicating a bad player. The flop is drawy - if the villain had something like TT or AQ and wanted to price out the obvious flush draw he'd need to bet bigger to deny the draw proper odds. Something like $0.9 to $1.2 is what I'd expect from a made pair hand that wants to price out a draw. What does $0.7 mean in this context? A drawing hand or a player who doesn't see the draw as a threat? Or a weak made hand that's just looking for a cheap showdown and is willing to fold to any aggression or shut down on any scare cards? What I'm really struggling is to see an AA, KK, AQ, KQ, QQ, 77, 44 type hand betting the flop weakly. Of course the villain can be bad (and probably is), but I would discount those types of hands somewhat. I'd LOVE to be able to put some flush draws in his range, as it's consistent with his bet size (both streets), but since we have the Kc, Qc and Tc accounted for and he plays a very narrow range there's not much beyond AcJc there. Even Jc9c or 9c8c is probably too loose for this villain regardless how we twist his preflop opening range. The good news on the turn is that almost certainly the villain never has 65 for the turned straight. The big surprise is that he bets again. What's he really expecting to gain by betting here? Is he betting for value or as a bluff? Is he trying to get you to fold a hand because he thinks you're just being tricky with nothing? A $1 bet here seems very unlikely to be a bluff. It smells a lot like a weak made hand or a draw looking for a cheap river. It's kind of the archetypical "I'm weak, shove me off my hand" bet. I don't think the villain here is thinking about how he looks to you, he's probably playing the cards in front of him. It's true that it could be the 77 that's scared of betting too big because you'll just fold and he won't be paid off. Speaking of weak betting, it's a good idea to reality check the bet size that you are considering for a semi-bluff. Pot is $2.75, bet size is $1, a call portion is $1 making an interim pot size of $4.75 meaning that the raise is equivalent to a $2 bet into a $4.75 pot - less than 1/2 PSB. If he shoves on this (small) semi-bluff bet you'd need 31% equity to call where you probably don't have that and have to fold the turn. While it sounds fine to keep the semi-bluff raise small so there is enough money behind that you can fold if shoved on the question is if it's big enough to cause the opponent to ever fold any made hands. If I was villain here with KQ and I was re-raised here to $3 I'd know I look weak and would definitely put a weak made hand or flush draw in heros hand range and not be opposed to turning my hand into a bluff because I think if I as villain 3bet shoves here hero is never calling when he semi-bluffs to $3. What range of hands are you trying to represent with a raise to $3? If you do decide to semi-bluff you need to semi-bluff a size that you would take with TPTK that thinks villain is on a draw and wants to price out the draw. What size is hero raising to with TPTK here for protection? Ok, moving on to the implied odds calculation. I think you get the wrong result ($1.9) - let me work it out for myself. Assume 9 good cards, 37 bad cards, $1 bet size. 1*37/9 = 4.1 - so you need to win on average 4.11 - (2.75 + 1) = $0.36 more on the river for calling to be breakeven - anything more is just gravy. ( http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...12.html#842124 ) And the important thing is not to get him to "grr" call $1.9 - it's to make sure that when you get to a river, having hit your hand, you will win on AVERAGE $1.9 (which is really $0.36 according to my calculations). Sometimes you'll bet and he will FOLD. If he folds maybe 75% of the time you need to make a bet of $1.48 for the average to be $0.36. In either case I think the implied odds situation here is clearly +EV in the case of a call. The pot is going to be $4.75 and relative to the pot size $1.9 is a really weak bet size to be contemplating. It's probably betting to think about a $4 or so bet size if you hit, which will then maybe only be called.. 20-25% of the time (average $0.8 to $1 - way above $0.36) Another thing to think about is if you can bluff if the river misses you. Yet another is if the K is an out for you (if he has a medium pair). Going back to the turn raise. I think the turn raise might be the most EV move you can make. I think this because I think the villain here is most likely on an 88-JJ, AcJc with the KQ, AQ, 44, 77, QQ, KK, AA hands still possible but less likely - and I think the turn raise will fold out a lot of hands that are currently better than yours (all of 88-JJ and AcJc) and the ones that do call while a smaller (weighted) range you have a solid 9 outs against and is strong enough to call a big bet or raise on the river if you hit. As with any situation the real question here is - what is your opponents exact range and tendencies? Is he likely to fold 88-JJ, AcJc to a turn raise or is he likely to desperation call them and stack off light when you don't improve and he still has the better hand? Is he likely to chicken out on any flush card landing on the river greatly hurting the implied odds of getting to the river in any way? I think calling the turn for implied odds is the "safe" play but with reads semi-bluffing the turn may be higher EV - and I think $3 is the wrong semi-bluff size. I'd probably go to something like $4 or $3.75 to at least get above half PSB. It also makes me look committed while still giving me bad enough pot odds that I can fold if pushed into. |
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| Fnord |
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Pre-flop: You need to consider that you'll have poor relative position post-flop with the aggressor betting into you and the action acting after you. Also, how does MP2 play post-flop? Will having the live one in the pot and your cold call with position cause him to give up on c-betting most flops? Flop is an EASY call. Turn is probably a call as well, but I don't hate a raise. My guess is that he's not barreling with crap so call to suck out with okish odds. If he will fire twice with a wide range, raising begins to look attractive. If you airball the river, life gets very interesting because of the obvious draw on the board. |
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| settecba |
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| Great answer erpel...thanks. I did all the calculations with my assumptions, I knew all i needed from villain was 0.36 more if i called chasing my draw. The 1.90 was an estimation of what I can vbet river when i hit, and still get villain to call. So, when I thought of this and villains range during the hand, i knew the "safe" move was call his turn bet, but this was slightly +EV, even with him calling 1/2pot bet by river(that´s where I got the 1.90 from) when I hit. That is why I thought of the semi-bluff raise as a better play, with a higher expected value. You are probably right about the bet-sizing, I could have bet more without lowering my EV too much, but with this villain I felt atm that he was folding his 2nd pair hands and that was enough for my semibluff to have a higher EV than calling. | |||
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| ColdDecked |
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Hm, great post erpel. Please post more so I can learn more from your elaborate posts ^^ Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is what I'm thinking. settecba, you say that you have higher EV since you'd get 2nd pair hands to fold to your semibluff on the turn right? But how often will the villain fire a 3rd barrel with 2nd pair after you called down two streets? Right now, you potentially have 12 outs (3 kings, 9 flush cards) as well as 3 aces that can be bluff outs, since you can very well be drawing to the nut flush. There's also a lot of random brick cards that can shut the villain down since you called down two streets (if he has 2nd pair and puts you on a Q). If you call the turn, you're probably going to bet around 2/3 of the pot on the river if checked to, which would cost you just about as much as your semibluff on the turn, but with an addition street of information. Also, if you only call the turn, you can keep the pot smaller. So in the case that a K falls on the river, the pot will only be $4.75 and he bets say $2-3.50 (or maybe even less like his turn bet), and you feel that you have a chance of winning a showdown, you can call stand to lose less money. Whereas, if you semibluff the turn (say $4), and he calls, and the river comes a K. The pot would be $10.75, and he bets, would you fold or call? Or if he checks to you, on the river, are you going to check behind and give up? It seems to me that if you semibluff the turn, you will discount your K outs, as they will put you in a more difficult position on the river. Now like Fnord said, if the opponent is more aggressive in that he may bet with a wider range of hands, I may be opt to raise the turn more often. |
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