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The Worst Play in Poker

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Les_Worm

06-05-2005, 08:13 PM Post subject: The Worst Play in Poker

#1 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: May 2004

Location: MI

Posts: 1,697

I think I find myself making this play too often.

http://www.allinmagazine.com/article...&idMagazine=29

There’s a play that I occasionally see at the poker table that is so horrible it’s hard to comprehend. I’ve even seen it made by some very highly regarded players, too. The play is to bet a medium-weak hand on the river.

Why is this play so bad?

There are basically only two reasons to bet on the river. First, you’re betting for value—where you expect to win even when you get called. The only other reason to bet is as a bluff, hoping your opponent will fold the winning hand. Your strongest hands work as value bets, and your weakest hands can be used as bluffs. The problem with betting these medium-weak hands is that your opponent will only fold hands that are worse than yours—and if you get called you are almost certainly beaten. So why bet?

I was playing Hold'em recently (it was the limit event at this year’s WSOP) and a heads-up hand got down to the river with very little action. My opponent bet and all I had was AK with a board of something like Jc 9d 2s 9s 8c. I obviously couldn't beat any of my opponent's legitimate value-betting hands. However, I decided to call as a defensive measure against being run over. I remember thinking that my hand was the absolute worst hand I could justify calling with, and there were plenty of worse hands that I would have folded. I was happily shocked when my opponent turned over AQ.

What was he thinking? Was he betting for value? Certainly not. He can't possibly expect me to call with enough hands worse than his to justify a value bet. So it must be a bluff. But in this case there weren't any winning hands that I was going to fold—so the bluff couldn't possibly work. In fact, all my calling hands beat him, and any hand I would fold to his bet he could beat risk-free by checking. Clearly, my opponent wasn't thinking.

Before you make any play, you should always ask yourself, "What am I trying to accomplish here?" In the case of betting on the river, you are either hoping for your opponent to call with a worse hand or fold a better hand. You just can't have it both ways. In the above example, my opponent's bet had no chance of accomplishing either of these goals—thus nothing could possibly be gained. Furthermore, betting out only stands to lose a bet whenever I have any kind of a decent hand, whether I raise or just call.

So what should you do with medium-weak hands?

Obviously if you're acting second, just check and hope your hand is good. But if you're acting first, barring a check-raise bluff, you have two options: either check-and-call, or check-and-fold. Checking and calling gives you the chance of inducing your opponent to bluff, thereby winning you more money against his worst hands. You also have the chance of losing less against superior hands when you opponent checks a winning hand behind you. This makes checking and calling a win-win situation versus betting. Checking and folding still may be the best option, but the check-and-call clearly dominates betting in this case.

Perhaps my opponents are acting out of fear when they bet these hands out of position on the river. They fear that if they check, I will bet—forcing them to make a very tough decision between calling with a hand that can only beat a bluff or folding. While it’s true that playing to avoid tough decisions is often a good idea, here they are just giving their chips away, and their play is tantamount of throwing away money for fear of losing it.

This brings up another important point … In theory, you should only bluff with your absolute worst hands. Interestingly, rank beginners often see betting these horrible hands as reckless or dangerous. But the fact is that your worst hands are just as valuable as bluffs as your medium-weak hands. The difference is that medium-weak hands have value as checking hands that the worst hands don't.

As a general rule you should only bluff with hands that have no chance or almost no chance of winning in a showdown. How else are you going to win the pot with these hands except with a bluff? All weak hands lose if they get called, but only for your weakest hands is this risk outweighed by the possibility of getting a better hand to fold. This is why you often see experts turn over the most wretched of cards when they are caught bluffing, or even sometimes when the bluff succeeds. Just think how fun it is to show complete junk after getting someone to lay down a strong hand! This can rile opponents that don't understand the play's accuracy, and even some that do.

I remember one play at the final table of the World Series of Poker's No Limit 2-7 Lowball Draw event some years ago. The player in question raised and was called before the draw from the big blind. His opponent drew one and he stood pat. After the draw, his opponent bet out, this player raised, and his opponent deliberated a long time before finally calling with an audible sigh, showing an 8 low. Our hero slid his hand toward the muck, but the railbirds were so curious to know what he held that they pleaded for him to show. He acquiesced, turning over KKKQQ—a pat full house in lowball!

The railbirds were so impressed by the audacity of the bluff that they burst into spontaneous applause despite the fact that it failed. Was the audience right to be so impressed? No! It is true that he was bluffing with one of his worst hands as this article suggests to do. However, before the draw our player has many hands to choose from for his snowing (pre-draw bluffing) hands. Since he will fold many of his poor hands before the draw he should choose hands to snow with where the play is most likely to succeed.

Holding three Kings and two Queens means that it is unlikely that your opponent has one of those cards, so with this type of hand you should expect the play to fail more often that when you hold just about any other hand! The classic correct hands for trying to snow are low full houses such as 22288 … but that's a lesson for another article.

The artist formerly known as Knish
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SteveO

06-05-2005, 09:35 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2004

Posts: 755

Great point. I tried to teach a fellow this lesson the other day explaining that his AI bet on the river was silly b/c the only hands that would call had him beat. He stil felt as though he pulled a great bluff.

Send lawyers, guns and money - the sh*t has hit the fan!

Surf_Thug

06-05-2005, 09:54 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2005

Posts: 215

Quote:

His all-in bet was fine if the pot had already been built and there was money to win..

If it hadn't then it was pure stupidity, which I'm assuming is the case..

I love when people put their entire chip stack at risk with medicore-to-bad cards for an empty pot.

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Rondavu

06-06-2005, 02:35 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jan 2005

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Quote:

Before you make any play, you should always ask yourself, "What am I trying to accomplish here?" In the case of betting on the river, you are either hoping for your opponent to call with a worse hand or fold a better hand. You just can't have it both ways. In the above example, my opponent's bet had no chance of accomplishing either of these goals—thus nothing could possibly be gained. Furthermore, betting out only stands to lose a bet whenever I have any kind of a decent hand, whether I raise or just call.

I think you're missing one vital point to your discussion. You assume the bet itself is the only money at stake. Granted, if the pot is dry you don't bet, since your bet is a large percentage of the pot. If the pot is substantial you do bet to make your opponent fold. You were holding AK, which was the best hand. He almost made you fold. That was his goal. It was a good one.

You said yourself it was the worst call you could make. He was counting on a fold. He was almost right.

It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.

arkana

06-06-2005, 02:52 PM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 1,109

The example in the article is from a limit game so I suspect that Chris Ferguson was trying to say that almost all the hands that someone would go to the river with would call this bet so the only hands that would fold to that bet would be hands that would have lost anyways. In that sense the bet doesnt accomplish anything apart from increasing the amount of money you lose if you have the second best hand.

a500lbgorilla

06-06-2005, 05:00 PM

#6 (permalink)

JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

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It applies to NL as well.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

arkana

06-06-2005, 06:42 PM

#7 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 1,109

Yes true but I was trying to put the example in context for Rondavu

Rondavu

06-07-2005, 12:58 PM

#8 (permalink)

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In limit I agree with the principle. I don't agree with it as it applies to no limit. Allow me to explain why...

Your opponent holds: Kd Qc
You hold: Qh 6h
Community: 9c Qs 8s 10c 2s

This is a case where your opponent will bet, and you might follow to the river. On the river if you make a huge raise or initial bet, your opponent will fold a lot of times with a big pot in front of him. That's because there's too much out there that can beat him. There's a flush draw, and 4 to the straight on the board.

I could think of 101 more examples of when it's proper to bet the river with a medium strength hand.

The point is if you think you can make your opponent fold, it's irrelevant what kind of weak hand you're holding.

It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.

a500lbgorilla

06-07-2005, 02:48 PM

#9 (permalink)

JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

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That falls under "stronger hands will fold" category.

It commonly goes to the river and you have a hand like a straight on a 3 flush board. You're not getting a flush to fold, and you're probably getting every set and two pair to fold.

A pair of Queens 6 kicker is not a medium strong hand, it's a pretty weak hand.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

Rondavu

06-07-2005, 08:16 PM

#10 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2005

Posts: 3,053

Quote:

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

A pair of Queens 6 kicker is not a medium strong hand, it's a pretty weak hand.

-'rilla

Change it to this....

Your opponent holds: Qc 10d
You hold: Qh 8h
Community: 9c Qs 8s 10c 2s

Does it really change anything? Now you have a strong hand, but his is a little stronger. You can still make him fold it on this community. I must be missing something.

All I'm saying is if your action wins you the chips in the middle, then do it man.

It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.

a500lbgorilla

06-07-2005, 11:58 PM

#11 (permalink)

JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

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Well, I'm not playin Q8s into a big pot anyway. So the river pot is going to be like 14 BB if there's even been a little action. If I flopped two pair and he makes two pair on the turn, river action is inconsquential.

But assuming action has gotten to the river with enough money behind to bluff at this pot, then yes. You've found a situation where you should be to win.

I still don't agree with it becuase there's a minefield of better hands you're just betting into.

Your opponent holds: Qc Jd
You hold: Qh 8h
Community: 9c Qs 8s 10c 2s

Action will play the same and you're getting punked on the river 7/10 against the normal opponent.

Even with your scenario, I don't think you're folding out you're opponent enough to justify the amazing risk.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

Staple Gun

06-08-2005, 03:49 AM

#12 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: Gamblers Anonymous

Posts: 812

Would the following hand be considered part of this theory?

rwle34: -- --
worm007: -- --
coachchadwick: -- --
blueboy22s: -- --
JJ Evans: -- --
flip27: -- --
toml_8: Kc Qh
Sapient: -- --

Pre-flop:

blueboy22s folds. JJ Evans folds. flip27 folds.
toml_8 calls. Sapient calls. rwle34 calls.
worm007 calls. coachchadwick checks.

Flop (board: 6d Kd 8h):

worm007 checks. coachchadwick checks. toml_8 bets
$2.50. Sapient folds. rwle34 folds. worm007
folds. coachchadwick calls.

Turn (board: 6d Kd 8h Tc):

coachchadwick checks. toml_8 bets $4. coachchadwick
calls.

River (board: 6d Kd 8h Tc 8c):

coachchadwick checks. toml_8 checks.

I had put him on a draw, so I figured my bet wouldnt get called if he was and missed. I dont think he would call any sizeable bet with any hand other than maybe KJ. Therefore by betting I would give him a chance to reraise if for some reason he had an 8, or was slowplaying something better.

My Poker Story

a500lbgorilla

06-08-2005, 01:55 PM

#13 (permalink)

JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

Join Date: Sep 2004

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Posts: 8,379

Yup, better hands are calling, worse are folding.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

Rondavu

06-08-2005, 06:52 PM

#14 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2005

Posts: 3,053

What the hell. I'll agree to disagree.

It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.

arkana

06-08-2005, 07:07 PM

#15 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 1,109

Rondavu the key is if the bet isnt big enough to make better hands fold.

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