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loonychune
Old 02-07-2009, 03:20 AM     Post subject: Wise Words #1 #1 (permalink)  
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When an extremely-loose-passive player limp-calls, and then another extremely-loose-passive player 3-bets (after limping), and the original limp-caller then 5-bets your 4-bet, QQ is no good.
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Illfavor
Old 02-07-2009, 03:22 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Isn't this note "when passive players 3bet....QQ is no good" ?
Ich grolle nicht...
 
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loonychune
Old 02-07-2009, 03:35 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I didn't describe my opponents very well actually. Probably didn't have enough hands on them either.

I decided i'd just put MP2 all-in since, well, he hadn't been at the table ages but had over-valued every one of the 50% of hands he'd played. Just really didn't expect utg+1 to 5-bet, n then felt priced in.

The more I look at this, the more stupid I feel for ranting at FTR without giving proper information and for actually playing the hand this way.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (CO) ($10.30)
Button ($9.85)
SB ($9.90)
BB ($7.05)
UTG ($32.40)
UTG+1 ($20.55)
MP1 ($38.95)
MP2 ($4.60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP1 calls $0.10, MP2 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.70, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.60, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $1.30, Hero raises to $4.85, UTG+1 raises to $20.55 (All-In), MP2 calls $3.30 (All-In), Hero calls $5.45 (All-In)

Flop: ($25.45) 10, A, A (3 players, 3 all-in)

Turn: ($25.45) 5 (3 players, 3 all-in)

River: ($25.45) 6 (3 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: $25.45 | Rake: $2

MP2 had JJ. I just felt he'd limp re-raise with AT+ here thinking it to be the dog's bollocks.
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Robb
Old 02-07-2009, 03:36 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 Don't care much for "always" and "never" kinda statements about poker, but nearly every time someone has 5-bet in one of my games, QQ was no good.
My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against
 
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Old 02-07-2009, 06:02 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Robb
Don't care much for "always" and "never" kinda statements about poker, but nearly every time someone has 5-bet in one of my games, QQ was no good.
Seems like I should be doing a lot of 5b bluffing against you
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animal_chin
Old 02-07-2009, 06:17 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Don't care much for "always" and "never" kinda statements about poker, but nearly every time someone has 5-bet in one of my games, QQ was no good.
Seems like I should be doing a lot of 5b bluffing against you
You are dumb. 2/3 of the time he will have AA or KK (assuming he only 4bs AA,KK,QQ which it sounds like he does).
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swiggidy
Old 02-07-2009, 06:20 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Don't care much for "always" and "never" kinda statements about poker, but nearly every time someone has 5-bet in one of my games, QQ was no good.
Seems like I should be doing a lot of 5b bluffing against you
Can you just never post in the BC please?
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Old 02-07-2009, 09:31 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by animal_chin
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Don't care much for "always" and "never" kinda statements about poker, but nearly every time someone has 5-bet in one of my games, QQ was no good.
Seems like I should be doing a lot of 5b bluffing against you
You are dumb. 2/3 of the time he will have AA or KK (assuming he only 4bs AA,KK,QQ which it sounds like he does).
well I assumed he'd 4b AK
let's see, say I 3b to 12BB and he 4b to 32BB
if I shove for 100 BB, I'll win a 200BB pot when I win putting in 88BB additionally
I'll also win a 132BB pot with 88 of which is mine when he folds
I win 0 when he calls and I lose

say my hand is 44 which I chose to bluff with
first outcome is 18.8% chance of happening against the range KK+ when he calls so it's worth 37.6BB
second outcome is when he folds
I need to make up 50.4BB to make the bluff profitable
which means he needs to fold 38.2% of the time for the bluff to be break-even

if he 4b AK, QQ+
he has 16 comboes of AK
6 comboes of QQ
12 comboes of KK+
22 out of 34 is 64.7%

but of course if he doesn't 4b AK I'm fucked
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Illfavor
Old 02-07-2009, 09:32 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swiggidy
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Don't care much for "always" and "never" kinda statements about poker, but nearly every time someone has 5-bet in one of my games, QQ was no good.
Seems like I should be doing a lot of 5b bluffing against you
Can you just never post in the BC please?
Ich grolle nicht...
 
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Robb
Old 02-07-2009, 09:35 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
if he doesn't 4b AK all the time I'm fucked
fyp
My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against
 
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Old 02-07-2009, 10:20 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
if he doesn't 4b AK all the time I'm fucked
fyp
you only need to fold 38.2% of the time
if AK is like 10% of your 4b range, I can already profitably 5b bluff you since 30% would be QQ and 10% would be AK making you fold 40% of the time
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loonychune
Old 02-07-2009, 11:22 PM #12 (permalink)  
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I'm surprised people contributed to this post. I get carried away with my HUD sometimes n think like, HE'S TERRIBLE, I'M NOT LETTING HIM HAVE THIS ONE, or something to that effect.

I'm HUDless for a while now anyway.
 
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Old 02-08-2009, 05:18 AM #13 (permalink)  
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fuck I did my calculations wrong he has to fold a bit more than I calculated
also Axs is better for 5b bluffing when called, but he'll have less AK in his range
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dev
Old 02-08-2009, 07:52 AM #14 (permalink)  
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5b bluffing? Are you guys fucking serious? If this belongs in any serious discussion, it belongs in high stakes. Bring it there at your own peril...
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Robb
Old 02-08-2009, 01:19 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
fuck I did my calculations wrong he has to fold a bit more than I calculated
really?

Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
also Axs is better for 5b bluffing when called, but he'll have less AK in his range
when you comin' back to 50nl FR at Full Tilt?
My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against
 
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Old 02-08-2009, 03:41 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
fuck I did my calculations wrong he has to fold a bit more than I calculated
really?

Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
also Axs is better for 5b bluffing when called, but he'll have less AK in his range
when you comin' back to 50nl FR at Full Tilt?
5b bluffing with A5s is better because of blockers
(call chance) * (200BB * 26.6% = 52.3BB) is our value for getting called
(1 - call chance) * (132BB) is our folding equity

(132BB - 132BB*C) + 52.3BB*C = 88BB is the breakeven point
44BB = 79.7BB*C
call chance has to be more than 55.2% for the shove to be unprofitable
so someone has to fold to our shove more than 44.8% of the time

say you 4b AK, QQ+ and call KK+
if I am holding A5s, you have 12 AK, 6 QQ, 6 KK, 3 AA
you'll be folding 66% of the time

conclusion: it's retarded to 4b and fold good hands if your opponent can 5b bluff you
I'd say if you're 4b AK and QQ, you should call a shove or maybe reconsidering 4betting

and Robb, you're welcome to sit at my 50 NL HU table any time
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Robb
Old 02-08-2009, 05:54 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by iopq
and Robb, you're welcome to sit at my 50 NL HU table any time
No thanks. I suck at HU, and would get pwn'd. But I was hoping you'd come back to the Full Tilt 50nl FR nit-fest, show a few of those 5b bluffs down, and teach the regs there how gambooooool.
My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against
 
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Outlaw
Old 02-08-2009, 06:37 PM #18 (permalink)  
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I ain't good at math, but how much are the 3bet/4bets? minraises? It seems to me by the 4bet almost everyone's money would be in there already and you'd be getting like 6-1 to call a 5bet shove? Post the hand plz so we can see this fiasco. lol
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dev
Old 02-08-2009, 06:56 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Outlaw
I ain't good at math, but how much are the 3bet/4bets? minraises? It seems to me by the 4bet almost everyone's money would be in there already and you'd be getting like 6-1 to call a 5bet shove? Post the hand plz so we can see this fiasco. lol
This is all theoretical, and you're right. This is absurd.

The only time I can think of where you can make an argument for a 5 bet bluff is 200+bbs deep vs. a villain you have LOTS of history with. And this shouldn't be anywhere near BC.
Check out my self-deprecation here!
 
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Old 02-09-2009, 01:10 AM #20 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Outlaw
I ain't good at math, but how much are the 3bet/4bets? minraises? It seems to me by the 4bet almost everyone's money would be in there already and you'd be getting like 6-1 to call a 5bet shove? Post the hand plz so we can see this fiasco. lol
I already posted the bet sizing
someone opens for 4xBB which is standard
I 3b for 12x which is arguable, some people 3b like 3.5x the original raise but fuck those people. 12x is fine too especially if I'm 3b light a lot I'd like to be putting a smaller amount into the pot
to my surprise, the player 4b to 32BB although maybe 30BB is standard (2.5x the original raise) since the SPR is going to be very low even if you 4b small
and I shove for 100BB

notice that he doesn't have odds to call my shove if he thinks I have the goods
he's putting in an additional 68BB to win a 200BB pot which is 32%
so if he has QQ and puts me on KK+ he only has 18% equity and has to fold
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Robb
Old 02-09-2009, 02:49 AM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
Originally Posted by Outlaw
I ain't good at math, but how much are the 3bet/4bets? minraises? It seems to me by the 4bet almost everyone's money would be in there already and you'd be getting like 6-1 to call a 5bet shove? Post the hand plz so we can see this fiasco. lol
I already posted the bet sizing
someone opens for 4xBB which is standard
I 3b for 12x which is arguable, some people 3b like 3.5x the original raise but fuck those people. 12x is fine too especially if I'm 3b light a lot I'd like to be putting a smaller amount into the pot
to my surprise, the player 4b to 32BB although maybe 30BB is standard (2.5x the original raise) since the SPR is going to be very low even if you 4b small
and I shove for 100BB

notice that he doesn't have odds to call my shove if he thinks I have the goods
he's putting in an additional 68BB to win a 200BB pot which is 32%
so if he has QQ and puts me on KK+ he only has 18% equity and has to fold
1. When he flats your 3bet, he's way ahead. You stand to lose a big pot and win small ones since your hand is dominated.
2. When he 4bet shoves you have to fold.
3. If he thinks enough to both 4bet QQ and fold it to a 5b shove, he'll get a read on you, and sooner or later will just flat your 3bets or 4bet shove over them, whichever seems more +EV. Both suck for your hand.
4. You need GOOD players for this to work, someone who can make a big laydown. Against the donks, the multitabling nits, and the TAGG regs, this bluff works next to never, and even less if you ever show down A5s after you 5bet and get called by AA.
My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against
 
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