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winning at NL100, losing at NL200?

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missmisery

12-31-2005, 03:37 AM Post subject: winning at NL100, losing at NL200?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 31

Hi guys,

I need your input on something that has been bothering me for a few days.

I started playing in March 2005 with 50$ and turned it in 11K on December 1st playing NL25 to NL100 (and a bit of NL200) and some MTTs (actually won 4K in late november playing mtts). I'm not an exceptional poker player, but I think I play pretty well.

In December, I decided to play only NL200.. With a 11K bankroll, my goal was to play enough hands at NL200 to make sure I can beat the game and then move to NL400 and stay there for a while.

The problem is that I'm doing very well at NL100, but I'm losing at NL200. My play is pretty much the same.. I'm not scared at all playing NL200. I'm on a very bad streak currently... all my pocket pairs get cracked by sets (and I have some problems laying AA-KK post-flop on a non-scary board), I miss the flop 99.999% of the time, and when I hit it, someone will draw out on me. I also made a few really bad plays that I rarely do (kind of a semi-tilt.. calling even if I feel I'm beat just because I've put too many chips in the pot, etc.) , and I'm losing big time. Also, my big hands are not paid off like they used to at NL100. And on top of that, it seems like most of my c-bet and bluffs are called.

40K hands at NL100: PTBB/100 = 6.50
7K hands at NL200: PTBB/100 = -3.13 ( I was at +2BB after 2-3K and then things started to go wrong)

All the other stats are the same (PFR, VP$IP, etc)

My question is: At long term, can I really be losing at NL200 if I can beat NL100 hands down?? I feel like I belong at NL200 tables but I just don't want to keep loosing my hard-earned money... I lost almost 2000$ since my xmas break (and my goal was to make 2000$.. lol). 2K is a lot to me and I'm quite pissed that I lost that even if I know I should be able to earn it back. December is my first losing month too.. -800$ while I averaged 2K the 4 previous months. I even took 1 day off and came back top shape, only to lose 600$ that night.

I did a little test tonight.. 2-table NL100 and 2-table NL200 at the same time. The results:
NL200: -250$
NL100: +125$

Some advices would be welcomed!! Should I stay my whole life at NL100 or keep trying to win at NL200? I really don't know If it is just a downswing or if I'm not good enough to beat the NL200 players (and I don't want to waste another 2K to figure that out)
I could take a break but I don't like that because I know I can be making money playing poker.

Thanks
a frustrated poker player

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DaHorror

12-31-2005, 04:19 AM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 616

Sounds like you should stick to NL $100, make your 2K back again, and then try NL $200 again.
Obviously pooring some time into analyzing your losses at NL $200 would be well worth it in the meantime - were they primarily bad beats or bad calls etc.

Congrats on the incredible winnings $50 to $11k in 9 months...embarrassing really lol - I've been at it 6 months and I'm still at about $700 from my $50 starting deposit. But I only 2-3 table NL $10...and I'm likely an overly conservative player.

pgil

12-31-2005, 04:26 AM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 1,103

i dont play at nearly those stakes, but it might be the case that you are still trying to play as though it were a 100nl table. making the standard 100nl moves may not be as effective at 200nl. the players that you are up against at 200nl have probably also crushed 100nl before moving up (for the most part). you may need to alter your play; less c-betting, fewer moves, more straightforward poker; until you get a better feel for the way the game is played at that level. then you can start to open things up more. this tightness will have the added benefit of reducing losses while getting used to the new level.

"If you can't say f*ck, you can't say f*ck the government" - Lenny Bruce

bearcats05

12-31-2005, 04:46 AM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Nov 2005

Posts: 336

i bet very few of the 200nl players crushed 100nl...

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Checkways

12-31-2005, 04:58 AM Post subject: Re: winning at NL100, losing at NL200?

#5 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 249

First off, congrats on your success. As for you question, you mentioned this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by missmisery

... all my pocket pairs get cracked by sets (and I have some problems laying AA-KK post-flop on a non-scary board), I miss the flop 99.999% of the time, and when I hit it, someone will draw out on me. I also made a few really bad plays that I rarely do (kind of a semi-tilt.. calling even if I feel I'm beat just because I've put too many chips in the pot, etc.) , and I'm losing big time. Also, my big hands are not paid off like they used to at NL100. And on top of that, it seems like most of my c-bet and bluffs are called.

Honestly, it sounds like you're a little over your head right now. It's good that you've recognized why (c-bets getting called, not getting payed off, etc). It looks the competition is just a lot better than what you faced before.

However, to think that you must stay at 100NL for the rest of your life is saying that you don't ever think you'll improve. You should definitely stay at it until your bankroll can't handle it anymore. Emphasize learning while trying to at least break even (sounds like you're running bad, so you should be able to handle this when you're running normal). If you're still playing badly lik e you said you were, then drop down and get your confidence back at the 100NL tables. Then try it again.

Good luck!

Lukie

12-31-2005, 05:06 AM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: back with a vengeance

Posts: 3,307

Hmm... your success (or lack of success) at NL200 compared to NL100 can be attributed to one of two things. The difference in skill between the two levels or just variance. 7k hands really isn't that significant in determining your win rate at any given level. Truthfully, it's probably a combonation of the two.

If I was in your situation, I would continue playing NL100. It always amazes me how quickly people like jumping up to the next level. But if you can't beat the game, you are only costing yourself money. I would just continue to make money while learning the game at NL100 until you are ready to make the jump. It should be at a time when you know you are a better player and you are financially/emotionally prepared to drop a few buyins at the higher level.

12-31-2005, 06:38 AM

#7 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Jan 2005

Posts: 1,855

It could be that you're just on a bad run, too. I was absolutely destroying my NL100 game but lately everything has gone wrong. My big pairs are getting cracked by sets, I have a *great* second-best hand a lot, I've slow-played monsters into people turning/rivering bigger monsters, my bluffs aren't working, etc...

Shit happens. Either stick with it or go back down and destroy the NL100 game and then try again...

finky

12-31-2005, 03:03 PM

#8 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Oct 2005

Location: London

Posts: 270

Dude, I feel your pain. There definatly seems to be a big difference at play at these two levels. I played the same style at both and look at these graphs.

NL100

mmmn nice smoth profit

NL200

WTF??

The only thing I can think of for this varience is that players tend to be more aggressive at NL200. Unfortunatly theres not much you can do to counter that as players are often more aware of pure nut peddling.

Putting more effort and trust in reads helps a bit but try changing sites, I've play semi TAG and have had more success on passive sites like the ones on the iPoker network (no Pokertracker support but maybe thats a good thing). Also a good rakeback deal will pay more at this level and go some way to easing the pain.

Don't give up though, playing against good players, although expensive in the short term, is the best way of improving your own game. Think of it as tuition fees

Miffed22001

12-31-2005, 03:43 PM

#9 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!

Posts: 8,181

It honestly just looks like a bad run of varience. If you're killing 100NL stay there and kill it. Then periodically keep moving up to 200nl and try it. If you keep losing money from hands other than bad beats then you maybe need to introduce new concepts to your game. But i think that wont be the case in this instance.

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winning at NL100, losing at NL200?

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