Winning?

**gotigers1234** · 05-15-2012 08:52 PM

How Many hands do you need to calculate winrate at a level?? This month I have 10k hands and 4.8bb/100. I know about variance a little but can I assume I am beating this level?

**kickass** · 05-15-2012 08:57 PM

shaw

**supa** · 05-15-2012 11:32 PM

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ou-167253.html

**Alexos** · 05-16-2012 01:07 AM

100k is decent, 500k is legit but by then the games evolved quite a bit that you can't be sure anymore. 10k is nothing.

**Imthenewfish** · 05-16-2012 01:41 AM

Originally Posted by Alexos

100k is decent, 500k is legit but by then the games evolved quite a bit that you can't be sure anymore. 10k is nothing.

is that for knowing if you're winning/losing or trying to get an accurate idea of your winrate?

**rpm** · 05-18-2012 03:39 AM

Originally Posted by gotigers1234

This month I have 10k hands and 4.8bb/100. I know about variance a little but can I assume I am beating this level?

i have no proof. but my best guess would be no. if you are still running at 4.8bb over 50k then i'd feel safer about it.

have a play around with this thing if you are interested in learning more about variance. ev++ Poker Tools :: Poker Variance Simulator

**daven** · 05-18-2012 05:45 AM

this winrate over this sample means that it is much more likely that you are a winning player than that you are a losing player at these stakes.

**chatzilla** · 05-18-2012 10:11 AM

Originally Posted by daven

this winrate over this sample means that it is much more likely that you are a winning player than that you are a losing player at these stakes.

This.

**Icanhastreebet** · 05-18-2012 03:02 PM

It doesn't mean he's MUCH more likely to be anything.

95% confidence interval over 10k hands spans about 28bb

edit: Using 90bb/100 standard deviation

**Luco** · 05-18-2012 03:20 PM

At the minstakes, by the time you've got enough hands for a good sample you've probably already moved up. Twice.

Having said that, what daven said.

**MadMojoMonkey** · 05-18-2012 04:04 PM

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

It doesn't mean he's MUCH more likely to be anything. 40.6% chance he's a winner.

95% confidence interval over 10k hands spans about 28bb

edit: Using 90bb/100 standard deviation

The sample mean is positive. How can the % chance the true mean is positive be less than 50%?

x = (4.8 +/- 28) bb/100 :: (-23.2 < x < 32.8) bb/100

This contains more positive values than negative values, so what am I missing?

**gotigers1234** · 05-18-2012 04:47 PM

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

The sample mean is positive. How can the % chance the true mean is positive be less than 50%?

x = (4.8 +/- 28) bb/100 :: (-23.2 < x < 32.8) bb/100

This contains more positive values than negative values, so what am I missing?

how did you come up with the formula mojo what do the numbers represent?

**Icanhastreebet** · 05-18-2012 06:42 PM

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

The sample mean is positive. How can the % chance the true mean is positive be less than 50%?

x = (4.8 +/- 28) bb/100 :: (-23.2 < x < 32.8) bb/100

This contains more positive values than negative values, so what am I missing?

I meant 40.6% confidence his winrate falls from 0-9.6bb/100 which is obviously pretty useless so I erased it from my post

.

**Icanhastreebet** · 05-18-2012 06:46 PM

Originally Posted by gotigers1234

how did you come up with the formula mojo what do the numbers represent?

The numbers represent what your possible winrate is at 95% confidence, it's really hard to tell your true winrate over ANY sample, let alone one this small. I mean for example over 100k hands at 4.8bb/100 with std deviation 90bb/100 you can be 95% confident your winrate falls between 5.19bb/100 and -0.39bb/100 so even with this winrate over 100k hands you can't REALLY know you are a winner.

FYI: It takes about 200k hands at 90bb/100 std deviation to estimate your winrate with 95% confidence to + or - 2bb/100.

edit: It's supposed to be 10.38bb/100 and -.78bb/100(or read as BB/100

). My bad! I was in a rush when I made this post, the 2nd part is still correct though.

**Micro2Macro** · 05-18-2012 09:47 PM

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

The numbers represent what your possible winrate is at 95% confidence, it's really hard to tell your true winrate over ANY sample, let alone one this small. I mean for example over 100k hands at 4.8bb/100 with std deviation 90bb/100 you can be 95% confident your winrate falls between 5.19bb/100 and -0.39bb/100 so even with this winrate over 100k hands you can't REALLY know you are a winner.

FYI: It takes about 200k hands at 90bb/100 std deviation to estimate your winrate with 95% confidence to + or - 2bb/100.

.

05-15-2012 08:52 PM #1
gotigers1234 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2010 Posts 193 Location Looking at Mold	Winning? How Many hands do you need to calculate winrate at a level?? This month I have 10k hands and 4.8bb/100. I know about variance a little but can I assume I am beating this level?

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05-15-2012 08:57 PM #2
kickass View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Nov 2010 Posts 887 Location St. Shawshanks Infant School	shaw
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05-15-2012 11:32 PM #3
supa View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Feb 2010 Posts 3,334 Location At the bar drinking whisky with an "e"	http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ou-167253.html
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05-16-2012 01:07 AM #4
Alexos View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Visit Homepage Join Date Aug 2006 Posts 3,193 Location Montreal	100k is decent, 500k is legit but by then the games evolved quite a bit that you can't be sure anymore. 10k is nothing.
	Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot // Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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05-16-2012 01:41 AM #5
Imthenewfish View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Apr 2010 Posts 1,107	Originally Posted by Alexos 100k is decent, 500k is legit but by then the games evolved quite a bit that you can't be sure anymore. 10k is nothing. is that for knowing if you're winning/losing or trying to get an accurate idea of your winrate?

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05-18-2012 03:39 AM #6
rpm View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2009 Posts 2,839 Location maaaaaaaaaaate	Originally Posted by gotigers1234 This month I have 10k hands and 4.8bb/100. I know about variance a little but can I assume I am beating this level? i have no proof. but my best guess would be no. if you are still running at 4.8bb over 50k then i'd feel safer about it. have a play around with this thing if you are interested in learning more about variance. ev++ Poker Tools :: Poker Variance Simulator

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05-18-2012 05:45 AM #7
daven View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message trolling freetrollers Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 7,089 Location soaking up ethanol, moving on up	this winrate over this sample means that it is much more likely that you are a winning player than that you are a losing player at these stakes.
	don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit allin, reload, repeat please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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05-18-2012 10:11 AM #8
chatzilla View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2009 Posts 364 Location Melbourne, Australia	Originally Posted by daven this winrate over this sample means that it is much more likely that you are a winning player than that you are a losing player at these stakes. This.

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05-18-2012 03:02 PM #9
Icanhastreebet View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Dec 2009 Posts 1,410 Location IRC, Come join me!	It doesn't mean he's MUCH more likely to be anything. 95% confidence interval over 10k hands spans about 28bb edit: Using 90bb/100 standard deviation
	Last edited by Icanhastreebet; 05-18-2012 at 06:41 PM.
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05-18-2012 03:20 PM #10
Luco View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Still a fish Join Date Mar 2009 Posts 2,296	At the minstakes, by the time you've got enough hands for a good sample you've probably already moved up. Twice. Having said that, what daven said.
	Originally Posted by spoonitnow Worse doesn't call, better doesn't fold, blah blah same shit different day.
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05-18-2012 04:04 PM #11
MadMojoMonkey View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Apr 2012 Posts 1,229 Location St Louis, MO	Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet It doesn't mean he's MUCH more likely to be anything. 40.6% chance he's a winner. 95% confidence interval over 10k hands spans about 28bb edit: Using 90bb/100 standard deviation The sample mean is positive. How can the % chance the true mean is positive be less than 50%? x = (4.8 +/- 28) bb/100 :: (-23.2 < x < 32.8) bb/100 This contains more positive values than negative values, so what am I missing?

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05-18-2012 04:47 PM #12
gotigers1234 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2010 Posts 193 Location Looking at Mold	Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey The sample mean is positive. How can the % chance the true mean is positive be less than 50%? x = (4.8 +/- 28) bb/100 :: (-23.2 < x < 32.8) bb/100 This contains more positive values than negative values, so what am I missing? how did you come up with the formula mojo what do the numbers represent?

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05-18-2012 06:42 PM #13
Icanhastreebet View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Dec 2009 Posts 1,410 Location IRC, Come join me!	Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey The sample mean is positive. How can the % chance the true mean is positive be less than 50%? x = (4.8 +/- 28) bb/100 :: (-23.2 < x < 32.8) bb/100 This contains more positive values than negative values, so what am I missing? I meant 40.6% confidence his winrate falls from 0-9.6bb/100 which is obviously pretty useless so I erased it from my post .

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05-18-2012 06:46 PM #14
Icanhastreebet View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Dec 2009 Posts 1,410 Location IRC, Come join me!	Originally Posted by gotigers1234 how did you come up with the formula mojo what do the numbers represent? The numbers represent what your possible winrate is at 95% confidence, it's really hard to tell your true winrate over ANY sample, let alone one this small. I mean for example over 100k hands at 4.8bb/100 with std deviation 90bb/100 you can be 95% confident your winrate falls between 5.19bb/100 and -0.39bb/100 so even with this winrate over 100k hands you can't REALLY know you are a winner. FYI: It takes about 200k hands at 90bb/100 std deviation to estimate your winrate with 95% confidence to + or - 2bb/100. edit: It's supposed to be 10.38bb/100 and -.78bb/100(or read as BB/100 ). My bad! I was in a rush when I made this post, the 2nd part is still correct though.
	Last edited by Icanhastreebet; 05-21-2012 at 02:49 PM.
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05-18-2012 09:47 PM #15
Micro2Macro View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jan 2009 Posts 5,038 Location No structure	Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet The numbers represent what your possible winrate is at 95% confidence, it's really hard to tell your true winrate over ANY sample, let alone one this small. I mean for example over 100k hands at 4.8bb/100 with std deviation 90bb/100 you can be 95% confident your winrate falls between 5.19bb/100 and -0.39bb/100 so even with this winrate over 100k hands you can't REALLY know you are a winner. FYI: It takes about 200k hands at 90bb/100 std deviation to estimate your winrate with 95% confidence to + or - 2bb/100. .

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