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Why I hate donk bets.

  
 
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Carroters
Old 09-24-2009, 06:53 PM     Post subject: Why I hate donk bets. #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is a 25NL reg and defo one of the better players I've came across preflop. I haven't noted a whole lot about his post flop game.

He runs 24/20/7.5AF over 120 hands with a 7.5 3Bet%. He folds BB to steal 88%, but views me as opening a wide range on the button.

I'd expect him to 3bet nut hands and low pairs/suited connectors/other bluffs a lot of the time. When he flats preflop his range is probably mid pairs and AJ ATs KQ type hands that are comfortably ahead of my range and my J9s.

His range on the flop probably contains some air, some draws and pair+ draws, and worse pairs.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($33.85)
UTG ($4.05)
MP ($27.20)
Hero (Button) ($25)
SB ($27.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, J
2 folds, Hero bets $0.85, 1 fold, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 3, 7, 9 (2 players)
BB bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.30) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $3.50, Hero?

 
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Old 09-24-2009, 07:22 PM #2 (permalink)  
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fowd because of weverze impwied oddz.
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Old 09-24-2009, 07:25 PM #3 (permalink)  
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99% of people have very unbalanced donk leading ranges, hence it´s one of the easiest lines to figure out. What people are donking with is prob the single most note I have on the people I play with.

That being said and with no reads on him I just muck it on this turn. His hand either improved or else he´d give up with a 66/A9ish hand that bet flop to see where he´s at.
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Old 09-24-2009, 07:30 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Old 09-24-2009, 07:35 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 this is a pretty interesting hand (at least for the BC), and i don't know exactly what to do either, but here are my thoughts on the hand:

-described villain is prolly 3b'ing JJ+ (and prolly TT, too)

-it's bad for villain to donk here with 9x (maybe i'm wrong about this, but it seems bad to me)

-obv a butt ton of his draws completed and since he doesn't have overpairs too often, his range seems really strong right now (since i think his donk on the flop is polarized between draws and 2 pair+ hands). i lead here with missed broadways sometimes too, though, and this isn't a bad card to barrel, so i don't know.

i do think that HERE it's a fold because all the draws completed, but i wanted to write my thoughts out to see if i'm thinking correctly about what I should be leading with if i'm villain and thinking correctly about HIS range

basically, i tend to do it with a lot of my A range a solid percentage of the time, and with a lot of my D range that has overs, with vulnerable parts of my B range (like overpairs, but not so much of my B range so that i'm susceptible to being raised), and i usually just c/r with most my C range
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