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Why draws are so sexy

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Outlaw

09-17-2008, 04:15 AM Post subject: Why draws are so sexy

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Nov 2007

Posts: 1,033

I have recently gotten a lot more agressive with draws (and any hand for that matter).. I am finding most players wilt under a double and triple barrel and run away from your table with their tail between their legs after a few rounds with you. I tried experimenting with ramped up aggression a few days ago just to "see how it goes" and was really surprised. I was betting, raising, reraising (and sometimes having to fold when I felt I was beat) After about 30 minutes of play, I hadn't really hit any hands.. hadn't stacked anyone and had in fact been stacked once myself with set over set. I took a pause and checked my stats thus far in the session.. my AF was 11.0. I was shocked to see I was actually UP a buy-in!

While its true, maybe I did get a bit lucky.. but it makes one wonder...

Here is a typical scenario we face all the time. Imagine playing this more passively? I shudder to think..

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($11.65)
UTG ($8.45)
Button ($11.45)
Hero (SB) ($13.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q

, A

UTG raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.90) J

, 9

, 3

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, UTG calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.90) 10

(2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, UTG calls $1.50

River: ($4.90) 6

(2 players)
Hero bets $3, 1 fold

Total pot: $4.90 | Rake: $0.20

Results in white below:
Hero didn't show Q

, A

(high card, Ace).
Outcome: Hero won $4.70

The villain was running 18/4.. I like to donk lead on big draws usually because it defines your hand so well. If he raises me I know he has TP or an overpair.. because he flatted I know he either has AK, a flush draw, a mid pair, or a set.. all of which I have a shot of outdrawing. Also it guarantees the pot to be built and adds some fold equity. A ton of the time he folds here!

I figure he has me on something like Kj since at this level most people don't bet draws. So if he did have a big hand and I hit my nut flush, I am definately getting paid off.

I actually thought he was calling on a draw.. probably had KQ of diamonds, possibly AK and hated to give it up, or a scared pocket pair like 1010, 88, etc. The beauty of firing a barrel on every street is that better hands will fold and if you do hit, its value city. Also, you have to look at boards like this as very drawy.. odds are he is after a draw too.. I'd say like 40% of the time you have opponents calling on draws.. and if you do fire that 3rd barrel on the river, you will get a fold a ton of the time. A hand like kj or qj might even fold under such pressure.

Boards like this are great to bluff at! Even if I didn't have anything and I was pretty sure he was drawing.. I could profitably bet every street knowing that most people that run with numbers like his do not like a lot of pressure and will likely give up unless they have two pair or better.

Moral of the story.. don't be afraid to bet and bet big. Even if the guy pushes on you on the river, you can still get away having only lost $5.. 40% of the time you will hit your draw and win.. 40% of the time he will fold by the river and the rest of the time you can still get away on the river= hugely profitable to be aggressive against the right type of player. This is the power of aggression. Make sure you are the one betting! Do not be a calling station, its losing poker.

Its this kind of play that keeps your stack constantly moving forward.. then you get the nuts and boom.. you leap way forward.

I'm sure you guys can post better hands to illustrate this.. feel free to outdo me.

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09-17-2008, 04:27 AM

#2 (permalink)

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This doesn't really pay off in NL10
A lot of people will call a third barrel with a mid pp because they think you're bluffing

so you can be "running good" by having opponents fold more than they usually do
I've lost 4 buy-ins doing this in the past in NL10 for several thousand hands

ABC TAG poker is definitely a bigger winner at these stakes

settecba

09-17-2008, 06:15 AM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2008

Location: stealing blinds from UTG

Posts: 326

i like the agressive aproach...actually i do it every time i feel it is right, and when i hit my draws i am paid big. I know a lot of you will disagree, maybe im wrong, but i liked this post.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISF

Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.

09-17-2008, 06:39 AM

#4 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

I only do it by hand reading, if I feel like they have a draw that missed and they don't know I missed too, etc.

09-17-2008, 01:14 PM

#5 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

Bumping up the aggression level at a weak tight table should be fundamental. However, getting too maniacal with it can often lead to some big swings though. Just gotta be ready for it. Anything $25NL and below will probably get you into more trouble than it's worth. Like the poster above said, ABC Tag style poker is best at the micros.

As for the HH, it would have been nice to get that river heart to see if he was chasing the same draw. We'll take that pot all day long though. I put villain on AK by the way.

STHollywood

09-17-2008, 05:27 PM

#6 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Dec 2007

Location: New York

Posts: 107

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

I only do it by hand reading, if I feel like they have a draw that missed and they don't know I missed too, etc.

I agree. I think at low stakes you will find that you get called here more than folded. People for the most part all calling stations at low stakes which means being overly aggressive with bad hands wont pay in the long run. Although it is a good way to learn because being super agro can be a good starting point to tone down in the right places

kmind

09-17-2008, 07:29 PM

#7 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Oct 2006

Location: Not Giving In

Posts: 4,240

No one folds preflop?

STHollywood

09-17-2008, 09:53 PM

#8 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Dec 2007

Location: New York

Posts: 107

Quote:

Originally Posted by kmind

No one folds preflop?

what is this in reference to?

kmind

09-17-2008, 11:21 PM

#9 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Oct 2006

Location: Not Giving In

Posts: 4,240

The preflop play ld0. I disagree with the whole hand and written that to him earlier but wanted to see responses first.

"Ok first thoughts about preflop. He's running 18/4 so he NEVER bluffs preflop when he raises. AQs vs. his preflop raising range doesn't have that great of equity at all (PokerStove this please if you have it...which you should!). Not only this but we are OOP postflop. This is what leads me to actually fold preflop unless there are like barely any hands on him at all. You obviously flop the nuts but let's evaluate what donking this flop does as opposed to c/r or even just c/c. When we bet at this level, villains get rid of ALL their bluffs. By checking, we can get a bet out of his bluffs. Remember his tight range preflop? Well this flop seems to hit all his hands semi hard. It's all a matter of if you think he actually continues with AK or AQ. We never want to bet/raise against a tight range as a bluff/semi-bluff. I think c/r is better on the flop since we get value from AK and AQ. On turn, his range is still hit really hard and I'd lead because he didn't reship on the flop which leads me to believe he can be drawing or has a weak mid/under pp who's just being stubborn, but so many of his hands have good equity on the board which includes monsters in which we can ship against on river (this is an edit from original PM). River I'd just give up because his range is soooo tight that we get called a lot. Arguing is great in poker."

09-18-2008, 01:31 AM

#10 (permalink)

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yeah, I wouldn't donk here actually
I only donk in weird spots where my opponent least expects it and will probably fold the flop

CBAT

09-18-2008, 02:36 AM

#11 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: NY

Posts: 831

Welcome to my style of play!

I'm currently running with AF at 5.11 over 15K hands at this level ($10NL FR) and I am getting payed about 11.5BB/100.

I love the aggressive game. Makes it MUCH more interesting and really pays off when you hit it.

CBat's Poker Blog

Outlaw

09-18-2008, 03:12 AM

#12 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Nov 2007

Posts: 1,033

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

There actually are people at 10NL that can fold.. I wouldn't try this against everyone. This works best against the ABC TAGs you are talking about. This guy was a bit on the passive side, but he was definately on the ABC side.

In the posted hand, against some players I fold preflop.. against others I raise preflop.. against others I check/raise (favorite play) on the flop.. and yet against others, I check/fold the flop.

There was some history on this guy that I should have mentioned in my post.. I had seen him relenquish quiet a few pots after pressure was applied to him. He never seemed to go three streets unless he had the nuts or near nuts.

Overall, think that at no matter the stakes you are much better off erring on the aggressive side in all situations. The times your river bluff is called after 2 semi bluffs is not high enough to make the play unprofitable.

Now imagine I had checked the flop.. he bets, I call.. the turn goes check check, then I bluff the river there.. think he will fold more often than if I had fired 3 streets? Remember, even though the money is greater by the river if we fire 3 bullets, that really doesn't matter.. the passive play gets our bluffs picked off a lot more if for no other reason than it is cheaper for the villain..

We have to get over worrying about losing a big pot on a bluff.. sure the fewer pots we lose this way will seem extreme in the short term.. but won't the greater number of big pots that we win outweigh this?

Remember each street is exclusive of the other streets as far as betting goes. If you are worried about bet size in relation to your bankroll, you need to move down to a lower level.

In a nutshell.. its all about risk and ratio.. I'd rather play for more money if it means winning 62% of the time rather than playing "safely" for small pots and winning 55% of the time. (arbitrary numbers)

Sure the swings will be greater, but who cares if we make more money over the long term.

Oh, one last thing... this ABC poker thing. What does that mean anyways? Using one school of thought and playing the same way hand in and hand out will keep someone from losing so much money.. heck it may make them a winner at small stakes.

I think we should make an effort to play every player differently, every hand combination differently. I feel an inherent style that "mixes it up".. an ability to change gears at will, is what makes this game fun.. I would get very bored playing as a robot.

I'm not saying we shouldn't strive to play "optimally".. but we also have to think outside the box sometimes and realize that a sub-optimal play may actually be the optimal play in this particular hand at this particular moment and time. The biggest question I ask myself in most hands is.. "now how do I make this guy think I have a different hand than I really do"

People fear the unknown..after you completely fool them a couple of times they will start to fear you.. and then you can pick up even more orphaned pots.. people won't want to face you. Its a great place to be.

09-18-2008, 04:11 AM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by CBAT

So? I'm running just as well using ABC tag poker running 13/8/3

CBAT

09-18-2008, 12:08 PM

#14 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: NY

Posts: 831

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBAT

So? I'm running just as well using ABC tag poker running 13/8/3

Congrats ^_^

I'm just playing the style that I've grown accustom to. I like being tight very aggressive because most people think that you have something, they just don't know how good it actually is. I run at 17/12.5/5.1 and enjoy every minute of it. I'm playing at $10NL and I call many all-ins with TPTK because my play can help tilt people into pushing their TPWK.

Although I bet I have some better sessions than you do, I also bet that I have worse sessions than you do =D

CBat's Poker Blog

09-18-2008, 01:00 PM

#15 (permalink)

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Over how many hands btw

kettleofish

09-18-2008, 01:05 PM

#16 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2007

Location: Helllllo Richard

Posts: 333

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

yeah, I wouldn't donk here actually
I only donk in weird spots where my opponent least expects it and will probably fold the flop

So u only donk as a bluff then, and only against players who are thinking about more than their own cards?

There's only one system. Bet. Lose. Borrow. Steal. Lose. Take the drugs. Lose. Prison. Death.

CBAT

09-18-2008, 01:06 PM

#17 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: NY

Posts: 831

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBAT

Welcome to my style of play!

I'm currently running with AF at 5.11 over 15K hands at this level

So only 15K so far at Full Ring. Played about 15K at 6-max before this with much LESS success. But that was the beginning of my online grinding so I attribute some of my failure to that. Started off with a big heater at 6-max then hit a nice cooler, went from about 15BB/100 to about 2BB/100 and decided to switch to $10NL Full Ring

CBat's Poker Blog

09-18-2008, 01:18 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by kettleofish

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

yeah, I wouldn't donk here actually
I only donk in weird spots where my opponent least expects it and will probably fold the flop

So u only donk as a bluff then, and only against players who are thinking about more than their own cards?

Well, actually it's probably easy to take away the pot on an ace-high board against meh players. As long as they're not terribad they'll fold.

I was thinking it's good to donk small pairs sometimes because you have a hand that probably isn't strong enough to build a big pot by check/raising. But I haven't tried it yet.

Outlaw

09-18-2008, 03:03 PM

#19 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Nov 2007

Posts: 1,033

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBAT

So? I'm running just as well using ABC tag poker running 13/8/3

13/8 is okay at FR.. I play 6max, however, so the thinking is a bit different. I ran 25/22/5.2 for the past 5k hands.. At FR I run about 17/13/3, so we aren't too far off.

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