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rowhousepd
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08-18-2009, 09:30 PM
Post subject: why are cbet opportunities so low?
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Posts: 213
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I'm looking how often I Cbet the flop out of how many opportunities I have. (I'm using Poker Tracker, btw). I did by filtering out Cont Bets Opps on the flop. And out of 10k hands at the limit I'm looking at now, apparently there are only about 350 total opportunities. (Keep in mind that I'm a somewhat Tight-Agr/Arg player -- 19 VP$P, 9 PFR, and 3.5 AF -- so I was surprised to see how few there were.)
Though I know it's a very good stat for looking at your own leaks, I'm asking here mostly because of how I'd specifically use this on the HUD. With say 300 hands played against someone (which I consider enough hands to at least start getting a sence of some of their betting habits), that means I'm often seeing the flop cbet % based on maybe measly 10 hands. This just doesn't seem right.
Maybe I'm missing something here, but wouldn't you need to have a sh*tload of hands on a opponent before the cbet flop stat actually becomes relevant?? I know a lot of people out there have that stat on their HUD, so how it is even meaningful for looking at most villains you encounter?
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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It's because you're a nit preflop and rarely open raise.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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You only raised 900 hands in 10K. 9PFR =900 hands and if you see a flop you need to bet. seems pretty right to me. Your stats suck. Your AF is so high becaue you only raise premiums and of course your going to be aggressive. Do you find nobody pays off your good hands and at showdowns they always seem to have it
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AFchung
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: UCLA
Posts: 1,179
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19/9 ?
stop limping and raise
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nish81
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 295
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er, I'm 11/7 over 7k hands, does this make me even worse? or is the problem that his VPIP is too high but his pfr isnt high enough?
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<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.
JR: lets do it JUAN
JR: mono e mono
JR: man to man
JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds
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Vinland
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Between a couple of points.
Posts: 610
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Nish: having 11 VPIP in full ring is fine imo....
the 7 PRF is a bit low. If you are only playing approx 11% of your hands, much of that range can be raised for value and you are probably missing these opportunities with a PFR of 7. Its not terrible but a lot of stats I have seen here are probably more like 11/8+... Thats only 1 point up from you but that constitutes some strong hands that you are likely limping behind and losing value on.
You have to remember that they are limping a wide range at 2nl, very wide, so raising your A9o from the BTN with 2 limpers in front will be well ahead of their range except for small PP that they will limp.
Having said that, you're only talking 7K hands...not a lot.
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I confess in quicksand
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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100 hands is a big enough same to spot a 11/7 nit. if someone plays 100 hands like that itll be the same stats when they have 10,000 hands
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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Vinland
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Between a couple of points.
Posts: 610
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Well yeah a nit is a nit but idk about you're hand sample arguement.
I usually 2 table and have run 4/4 over 100 hands at one table (getting crap cards and not many raising or blind stealing opportunities) and another table running 11/9 which is where I like to be in FR.
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I confess in quicksand
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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a nit is a nit, u can tell over 100 hand sampe usually what your gonna expect of opp. you ran 4/4 over 100 thus a nit, u also run 11/9 which is fairly nitty too.
whats considered a lag a FR?? 18/15? If I was at FR id be playing that style for sure.
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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Vinland
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Between a couple of points.
Posts: 610
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So if a nit is 11/9 and a lag is 18/15, where would you place a TAG (approx stats)? I'm playing at 5nl....
I was under the impression that 11/9 would be considered Tag in the low micros...maybe I'm missing opportunites to play/raise....
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I confess in quicksand
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BooG690
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 1,439
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You begin to widen your range as you get comfortable at the table...or at least you should.
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That's how winners play; we convince the other guy he's making all the right moves.
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jyms
You only raised 900 hands in 10K. 9PFR =900 hands and if you see a flop you need to bet. seems pretty right to me. Your stats suck. Your AF is so high becaue you only raise premiums and of course your going to be aggressive. Do you find nobody pays off your good hands and at showdowns they always seem to have it
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Well said
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Vinland
So if a nit is 11/9 and a lag is 18/15, where would you place a TAG (approx stats)? I'm playing at 5nl....
I was under the impression that 11/9 would be considered Tag in the low micros...maybe I'm missing opportunites to play/raise....
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i was just using estimates as my numbers. 12/10 is probably standard tag at full ring though dont quote me. i would still call a 12/10 a nit though for fun.
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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Any time your PFR and your VPIP moves more than 5% apart without a good reason, you're probably calling too much PF. General rule, there are exceptions but they normally only exist on a specific table v's specific villains and average out over time.
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Just playing to improve.
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