Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

REGISTER
Subscribe to FTR web feed
Already Registered?      Username:    Password:   Remember      Forgot Password

Poker Forum

  > 

Beginners Circle

  > 

Who's the sucker?

  
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
caddie444
Old 09-27-2010, 05:03 AM     Post subject: Who's the sucker? #1 (permalink)  
caddie444's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: constantly UTG
Posts: 723
caddie444 will become famous soon enough
 Let's say you have a friend named 'Spoon' (unlikely I know ) who suggests a game. In this game, to start, Spoon removes the 4 Kings and 4 Aces from a deck of cards. He says he will give you 2 of the kings, and that you may keep them as your hole-cards. He will then place the other 6 cards (the 4 aces and the remaining 2 kings) face down on a table, and mix them up.

He will then choose at random 2 of the face-down cards which will become his hole-cards. Once he picks 2 of the remaining cards, he puts the 4 unpicked face-down cards back into the deck, and shuffles. At this point he turns over his hand, you deal out a flop, turn, and river, and whoever wins at showdown between your pocket kings and his hand wins $100 from the other player.

Who's the sucker in this game, you or Spoony?


Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
 
Reply With Quote

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
Imthenewfish
Old 09-27-2010, 05:14 AM #2 (permalink)  
Full House

Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: sites im allowed to play on
Posts: 945
Imthenewfish is on a distinguished road
Send a message via MSN to Imthenewfish
I think im missing something here. there are 4 kings and 4 aces, we get 2 kings, and spoon gets 2 other cards. This leaves 4 cards left? how do we deal out a river?
Reply With Quote
caddie444
Old 09-27-2010, 05:35 AM #3 (permalink)  
caddie444's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: constantly UTG
Posts: 723
caddie444 will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by Imthenewfish View Post
I think im missing something here. there are 4 kings and 4 aces, we get 2 kings, and spoon gets 2 other cards. This leaves 4 cards left? how do we deal out a river?
The remaining 4 cards get put back into the original 52 card deck and shuffled before dealing the flop, turn, and river.


Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
 
Reply With Quote
philly and the phanatics
Old 09-27-2010, 06:05 AM #4 (permalink)  
philly and the phanatics's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 1,109
philly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the rough
Quote:
Originally Posted by caddie444 View Post
The remaining 4 cards get put back into the deck and shuffled before dealing the flop, turn, and river.

with 4 aces and 2 kings left over

6 combos of AA, 8 combos of AK, and 1 combo of KK so i guess hes the sucker cause its more likely for you to be dominating him (KK>AK) than him dominating you (KK<AA)
Reply With Quote
Icanhastreebet
Old 09-27-2010, 06:07 AM #5 (permalink)  
Full House

Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: In the big blind, cold calling your opens, making you tilt.
Posts: 995
Icanhastreebet will become famous soon enough
Send a message via MSN to Icanhastreebet Send a message via Skype™ to Icanhastreebet
 wat, if people have trouble wif this I'm leaving the forum.
Reply With Quote
jyms
Old 09-27-2010, 06:19 AM #6 (permalink)  
jyms's Avatar
Tilting Mod

Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
jyms has a spectacular aura aboutjyms has a spectacular aura aboutjyms has a spectacular aura about
 your the sucker, because your dealing the flop, turn and river
YouTube - Classified - "Oh... Canada" [Official Video]
 
Reply With Quote
L_Clan_Sup3rMaN
Old 09-27-2010, 08:10 AM #7 (permalink)  
L_Clan_Sup3rMaN's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 833
L_Clan_Sup3rMaN is on a distinguished road
 Spoon is...cuz his fkin name is spoon!
Reply With Quote
ButtonMash
Old 09-27-2010, 08:24 AM #8 (permalink)  
One Pair

Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 18
ButtonMash is on a distinguished road
 His hole cards are chosen from AAAAKK.
Chances of AA are 4/6 x 3/5 = 12/30 = 40%
Chances of KK are 2/6 x 1/5 = 2/30 = 10%
Remainder of times he has AK.
Ignoring straights and flushes for now, he needs an A to win with AK
Chances of hitting an ace on F,T, or R are 3/48 x 5 = 31.25%.
So chances of hitting an A when he has AK are 50% of 31.25 % = 15.625%
So far he wins 40% with AA and 15.625 with AK = 55.625%.
Add a bit more for straights and flushes and he is a clear winner.
Sets will cancel out except when 'set over set' giving him a further edge.
By my reckoning Spoon is not the sucker. Even if I'm mathematically wrong I'm politcally correct.
Reply With Quote
L_Clan_Sup3rMaN
Old 09-27-2010, 08:25 AM #9 (permalink)  
L_Clan_Sup3rMaN's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 833
L_Clan_Sup3rMaN is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics View Post
with 4 aces and 2 kings left over

6 combos of AA, 8 combos of AK, and 1 combo of KK so i guess hes the sucker cause its more likely for you to be dominating him (KK>AK) than him dominating you (KK<AA)
(6/15*0.82)+(8/15*0.31)+(1/15*0.5)
Reply With Quote
chatzilla
Old 09-27-2010, 08:43 AM #10 (permalink)  
chatzilla's Avatar
Flush

Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 360
chatzilla is an unknown quantity at this point
 I'll have a go

6 combos of AA, 8 combos of AK and 1 combo of KK

I'm gonna say spoon dealt me KcKs so we can keep track of the suits

so all spoons combos are
AdAc,AhAc,AsAc,AhAd,AsAd,AsAh,KdKh,AdKd,AhKh,AcKd, AcKh,AdKh,AhKd,AsKd,AsKh

so I'm the sucker because spoon has 52.707% equity
Reply With Quote
mbiz
Old 09-27-2010, 09:24 AM #11 (permalink)  
mbiz's Avatar
Straight

Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Orstraya
Posts: 178
mbiz is an unknown quantity at this point
 stoved it, spoon wins
Reply With Quote
Tasha
Old 09-27-2010, 09:58 AM #12 (permalink)  
Tasha's Avatar
Flush

Join Date: May 2010
Location: At the far end of the table
Posts: 262
Tasha is on a distinguished road
 "I am now going to stake you some very valuable advice. One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to come to you and show you a nice, brand new deck of cards on which the seal has not yet been broken. This man is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of the deck and squirt cider in your ear. Now son, do not bet this man, for as sure as you stand there, you are going to wind up with an earful of cider" - Guys and Dolls
Reply With Quote
oskar
Old 09-27-2010, 10:47 AM #13 (permalink)  
oskar's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
oskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura about
 He has:

8 * AK with 0.31 equity
6 * AA with 0.81
1 * KK with 0.5

[8*(0.31*100 - 0.69*100) + 6*(0.81*100 - 0.19*100) + (0)]/15 =
[-304 + 372 + 0]/15 = 4.53
Spoon wins $4.53 each game.
Unsuprisingly, you are the sucker.

Buttonmash - it's easier to just use some Monte Carlo program to figure out post flop odds (ie pokerstove). You are ignoring straights and flushes. Plus you can't just multiply odds and hope the number will be close.

The chance of hitting one ace is not 3/48*5, it's:
[3/48 * 45/47 * 44/46 * 43/45 * 42/44] * 5
Which means you were somewhat close, but still completely wrong. If you were to play a board with 25 streets - with your math you would be 156% to hit an ace... which is not possible. Unless you are a baseball coach or something.

Then there's the chance you flop two aces, or the times you hit an ace and he hits a king, etc. Too much work. Just stove it.
The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
 
Reply With Quote
StarGrinder
Old 09-27-2010, 01:02 PM #14 (permalink)  
StarGrinder's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: UTG (aka USA)
Posts: 683
StarGrinder is infamous around these parts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet View Post
wat, if people have trouble wif this I'm leaving the forum.
LOL, see ya then. Some of the n00b BCers probably don't even know how to spell pokerstove. No offense.
 
Reply With Quote
oskar
Old 09-27-2010, 02:10 PM #15 (permalink)  
oskar's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
oskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura about
 If noone had told you, you wouldn't know either.

But whatever makes you feel better than everyone else... knock yourselves out guys.
The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
 
Reply With Quote
OngBonga
Old 09-27-2010, 02:17 PM #16 (permalink)  
OngBonga's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: England
Posts: 1,053
OngBonga can only hope to improve
 kkaaaa

hc1... a 10/15 k 5/15
hc2... (a) a 9/15 k 6/15 (k) a 12/15 k 3/15

aa - 10/15 * 9/15 = 6/15
kk - 5/15 * 3/15 = 1/15
thus... ak 8/15

so...
Spoon has AK 8 times in 15, or 80 times in 150.
Of these 80 hands, we win 55 times, spoon 25 times. We're 30 wins up.

Spoon has AA 60 times in this sample of 150, he wins 49 times and we win 11 times. He's 38 wins up.

KK vs KK is obviously equal equity.

So, in a sample of 150 hands, it seems spoon is taking $800.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
ongies gonna ong
 
Reply With Quote
OngBonga
Old 09-27-2010, 02:19 PM #17 (permalink)  
OngBonga's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: England
Posts: 1,053
OngBonga can only hope to improve
 Sorry for deleting then reposting, I thought my maths was flawed, but it seems good after all!
Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
ongies gonna ong
 
Reply With Quote
oskar
Old 09-27-2010, 02:21 PM #18 (permalink)  
oskar's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
oskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura about
 It's slightly confusing, but it works. One of us went wrong somewhere tho cuz we're almost 20% apart. Could easily be me.
The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
 
Reply With Quote
OngBonga
Old 09-27-2010, 02:33 PM #19 (permalink)  
OngBonga's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: England
Posts: 1,053
OngBonga can only hope to improve
 I didn't see anyone else's solution before I had a go, I didn't want to be influenced. We're not worlds apart, something like $120 over 150 hands. I think mine is an approximation, I was expecting a margin of error of around $20 or so, but it might be more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
ongies gonna ong
 
Reply With Quote
StarGrinder
Old 09-27-2010, 02:33 PM #20 (permalink)  
StarGrinder's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: UTG (aka USA)
Posts: 683
StarGrinder is infamous around these parts
Quote:
Originally Posted by oskar View Post
If noone had told you, you wouldn't know either.

But whatever makes you feel better than everyone else... knock yourselves out guys.
LOL wat? I suck just as much as everyone else around here but I don't understand how is this even remotely difficult?
 
Reply With Quote
spoonitnow
Old 09-27-2010, 03:03 PM #21 (permalink)  
spoonitnow's Avatar
Straight Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
spoonitnow is on a distinguished road
Send a message via AIM to spoonitnow Send a message via MSN to spoonitnow Send a message via Yahoo to spoonitnow Send a message via Skype™ to spoonitnow
 154,107,360 games 0.125 secs 1,232,858,880 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
Reply With Quote
philly and the phanatics
Old 09-27-2010, 03:11 PM #22 (permalink)  
philly and the phanatics's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 1,109
philly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the rough
 lol blast, weird how we can be beating more of his combos but i guess cause we are more crushed when behind than he is when hes behind that it makes up for the few more times he has AK when we have KK
Reply With Quote
oskar
Old 09-27-2010, 04:05 PM #23 (permalink)  
oskar's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
oskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by StarGrinder View Post
LOL wat? I suck just as much as everyone else around here but I don't understand how is this even remotely difficult?
It was more directed towards yaawn. But you jumped on the bandwagon.
This is difficult if you've never done this before. Even if you know how to do it, it's really good practice, and I'd like to see more of these threads in the BC. This is not going to happen if you windowlickers keep spamming these threads with derogatory babble. Either participate or stfu and gtfo, please.
The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
 
Reply With Quote
StarGrinder
Old 09-27-2010, 04:09 PM #24 (permalink)  
StarGrinder's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: UTG (aka USA)
Posts: 683
StarGrinder is infamous around these parts
 Ok the windowlicker reference made me LOL irl

Quote:
154,107,360 games

Hand 0: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Are we just gambling once or is this a 'best of' series?
 
Reply With Quote
spoonitnow
Old 09-27-2010, 09:37 PM #25 (permalink)  
spoonitnow's Avatar
Straight Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
spoonitnow is on a distinguished road
Send a message via AIM to spoonitnow Send a message via MSN to spoonitnow Send a message via Yahoo to spoonitnow Send a message via Skype™ to spoonitnow
Quote:
Originally Posted by StarGrinder View Post
Ok the windowlicker reference made me LOL irl



Are we just gambling once or is this a 'best of' series?
It doesn't matter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
Reply With Quote
StarGrinder
Old 09-27-2010, 10:06 PM #26 (permalink)  
StarGrinder's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: UTG (aka USA)
Posts: 683
StarGrinder is infamous around these parts
 That sir spoon, was a joke.

But, wait... what if villain spots us a $100 and we go best of 7? Watchya, whatchya, whatchya gonna do?


Edit: Sorry, I've been drinking and should probably head on over to the commune.
 
Reply With Quote
Johnny Cashout
Old 09-27-2010, 10:09 PM #27 (permalink)  
Johnny Cashout's Avatar
3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 71
Johnny Cashout is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by L_Clan_Sup3rMaN View Post
Spoon is...cuz his fkin name is spoon!
lol
Current Goal: Breaking 50NL
Wish me luck!!!

Check my profile for my personal poker blog!
Constructive criticism welcome!
-looking for comments as I post my daily battles/struggles through 50NL full ring cash games!

Johnnycashout()com
 
Reply With Quote
spoonitnow
Old 09-27-2010, 11:57 PM #28 (permalink)  
spoonitnow's Avatar
Straight Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
spoonitnow is on a distinguished road
Send a message via AIM to spoonitnow Send a message via MSN to spoonitnow Send a message via Yahoo to spoonitnow Send a message via Skype™ to spoonitnow
Quote:
Originally Posted by StarGrinder View Post
That sir spoon, was a joke.

But, wait... what if villain spots us a $100 and we go best of 7? Watchya, whatchya, whatchya gonna do?


Edit: Sorry, I've been drinking and should probably head on over to the commune.
My bad. No offense but all of the random BC names run together unless I talk to you regularly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
Reply With Quote
supa
Old 09-28-2010, 12:11 AM #29 (permalink)  
supa's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 986
supa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of lightsupa is a glorious beacon of light
Quote:
Originally Posted by StarGrinder View Post
LOL, see ya then. Some of the n00b BCers probably don't even know how to spell pokerstove. No offense.
Is that like a pizza oven?

Anyway, I sux at the maths so I'll practice on oscars formula a bit. Obviously the stove numbers tell the story so I must be the sucker. Sucka.
“Right thoughts produce right actions and right actions produce work which will be a material reflection for others to see of the serenity at the center of it all”

Put hero on a goddamn range part II- The 6max years

Quote:
Originally Posted by d0zer View Post
start using your brain more and vagina less
 
Reply With Quote
caddie444
Old 09-28-2010, 04:48 AM #30 (permalink)  
caddie444's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: constantly UTG
Posts: 723
caddie444 will become famous soon enough
 Yah Spoon's obv not the Sucker.

The point of this post was threefold:

A) It's a good math lesson for noob's

B) About pokerstove:

Quote:
Originally Posted by oskar View Post
If noone had told you, you wouldn't know either...This is difficult if you've never done this before. Even if you know how to do it, it's really good practice

C) To show that KK is actually behind in equity vs a range of KK+, AKo, AKs

Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
154,107,360 games 0.125 secs 1,232,858,880 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Quote:
Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics View Post
weird how we can be beating more of his combos but i guess cause we are more crushed when behind than he is when hes behind that it makes up for the few more times he has AK when we have KK
Oh and to show that anyone who participates in a game Spoon suggests/creates is obv a sucka


Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
 
Reply With Quote
ButtonMash
Old 09-28-2010, 06:11 PM #31 (permalink)  
One Pair

Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 18
ButtonMash is on a distinguished road
 I wanna thank OP and all those who take the time to post this type of question. It is much appreciated.
Reply With Quote
Reply
Latest Poker News
KoRnholio Old 05-26-2012, 03:08 PM    Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ...

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »
Thread Tools
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


All times are GMT. The time now is 02:45 AM.

Contact Us - Archive - Top

FTR Testimonials

All content
© FlopTurnRiver.com 		Advertising  |   Partners  |   Testimonials  |   T&C  |   Contact Us  |   FTR News & Press  |   Site Map  |   Search FTR

Full Tilt  |   Titan Poker  |   UltimateBet  |   Poker Stars  |   Ladbrokes Bonus  |   Sportsbook  |   Cake Poker  

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum
This is not a gambling website.