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When should you fold a set with no flush or straight posible

  
 
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deadgoat
Old 08-04-2006, 04:06 PM     Post subject: When should you fold a set with no flush or straight posible #1 (permalink)  
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When should you fold a set with no flush or straight possible?

Last night at the same table I lost to set vs set twice when set vs set is suppose to happen 1 out of 100 times.

So I went back for the last couple of weeks to look at the odds.

Do you ever fold a set when there is no flush or straight possible on the board?

In the last couple weeks in pokerroom

AA - set 5 times
KK - set 8 times
QQ - set 10 times -> Lost Set vs Set
JJ - set 6 times
1010 - set 1 times
99 - set 13 times
88 - set 4 times -> Won Set vs Set
77 - set 8 times
66 - set 7 times
55 - set 11 times
44 - set 6 times
33 - set 5 times -> Lost Set vs Set
22 - set 6 times

set vs set 3 times out of 90. Maybe just lucky?
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Warpe
Old 08-04-2006, 04:16 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 How about never? 90 hands is a small sample, statistically speaking.



 
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deadgoat
Old 08-04-2006, 04:24 PM #3 (permalink)  
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My thoughts exactly, just had to ask
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Miffed22001
Old 08-04-2006, 04:34 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Pyroxene
Old 08-04-2006, 06:25 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deadgoat
Last night at the same table I lost to set vs set twice when set vs set is suppose to happen 1 out of 100 times.
This is one of those vague numbers that people hear and it starts to stick, but it has no basis in fact.

Obviously, the chance of an overset on the flop is very dependent on what set you hold. If you hold AA, then there is no chance. If you hold 22 then any other set will be an overset.

Consider:
1) You are at a 10 man table and you are dealt 22.
2) There are 50 unknown cards and 48 of them are higher than 2 (and the 2 other 2s make 50). So, a player must be dealt 1 of the 48 out of 50 cards to have a possibility of a higher PP.
3) Then the player must be dealt 1 of the 3 other cards of that rank to have that PP.
4) So, the player on your left has a (48*3)/(50*49) chance of being dealt a higher pocket pair than 2's. That is a 5.8776% chance. (Quick check for sanity, in a 52 card deck the chance of being dealt a pair is 1/17. Our number should be close to that because we are saying all pairs except 2's and 2 of the 2's are already gone. 1/17 = 5.8824%. So everything looks good so far.)
5) And, in fact, each of the other 8 players at that table has exactly the same chance. So, the total chance of at least one person at that table having a higher PP is 1- ((1-0.058824)^9) = 42.0521%. (Quick sanity check, odds of being dealt a PP are 1/17. So the odds of 9 people all not getting one would be roughly 1-(16/17)^9 = 42.0518%. So everything looks good so far.) [And I realize this number is not exact, as it is not an entirely independent equation (if someone is not dealt a PP, the odds of the next person not getting a PP have changed a little due to the previous non-PP skewing the card distribution), but it is easily close enough.]

So . . . when you are dealt pocket 2s, there is a 42.0521% chance that at least one person at a 10 man table was dealt a higher pocket pair.

6) It is a given that you have flopped EXACTLY a set.
7) There are two other cards on the board and both will be higher than 2s. What are the odds that they do not give the higher PP a set? Well, we know 5 cards, your PP, his PP, and the other 2 for your set. So there are 47 cards to be concerned about and there are exactly 2 we do not want to see (the two that match his PP). So 45 of the 47 cards are okay for the 2nd card on the flop and 44 of the 46 are okay for the 3rd card on the flop. (44*45)/(47*46) = 91.5819%. So there is a 91.5819% chance that they missed, which means there is a 8.4181% chance that they hit a set or quads.
8) So, first someone has to have a higher PP (42.0521%) and then they have to hit the higher set when you do (8.4181%). 0.420521 * 0.84181 = 3.54%.

Did I forget anything? Yes, I did. There is of course the chance that there are multiple higher PPs out there which mean that it is even more likely that the other 2 cards match someone. But I am not going to worry about that right now. Because I can say with confidence that when your 22's hit a EXACTLY a set on a 10 man table, someone else would have hit a higher set (or quads) AT LEAST 3.54% of the time if they stayed in with their PP.

This is obviously much more likely than 1 in 100.

How do 8's hold up?

Chance of the guy to your left have 99+ = (24*3)/(50*49) = 2.9388%
Chance of any of the other 9 players having 99+ = 23.5439%
Chance of them hitting their set (or quads) when you hit yours (on the flop) is the same 8.4181%.
Chance of it all happening at once: 0.235439 * 0.084181 = 1.982%

So, even 8s are going to be cracked around 2 in 100.

How about Queens? 0.7137%

Kings? 0.354%

And remember that all of my numbers are a bit on the low side because I do not account for multiple over PPs. Could we get more exact numbers? Sure, I would need to compute the exact chances for 1 to 9 over pairs (with each additional PP being more unlikely) and multiple those by the chance that someone hit one of the other two cards on the flop (with each additional PP making it more likely). But this math should give you a pretty good rough estimate.
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Renton
Old 08-04-2006, 06:44 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 almost never
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LeFou
Old 08-04-2006, 07:02 PM #7 (permalink)  
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You could maybe fold a set of queens if there was a lot of PF reraising and there was an A or K onboard and there's lots of postflop reraising. Otherwise don't.
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deadgoat
Old 08-05-2006, 07:35 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Now set vs set is upto 5 with less then 100 sets seen.

1 in 100 now at 5 in 100? Weird anyone else have data?
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Renton
Old 08-05-2006, 07:42 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deadgoat
1 in 100 now at 5 in 100? Weird anyone else have data?
Its irrelevant. Precise odds calculation in no limit holdem is completely irrelevant.
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Lukie
Old 08-05-2006, 07:57 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
almost never
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jackvance
Old 08-05-2006, 08:38 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 I had a set of 9s lose to overset twice in the span of 5 minutes for a total of -$100 (two buyins at 50NL) once.. sucks but happens I suppose.
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deadgoat
Old 08-06-2006, 01:47 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Pyroxene im just look for the odds that a set vs set will occur.

So what are the odds when you hit a set some else will hit a set.

Thanks in advance
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The Izebox
Old 08-06-2006, 04:44 AM     Post subject: set/set #13 (permalink)  
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Who cares?

Youre going to lose set vs set once in a while, theres no point beating yourself up about it. I would never EVER fold a set with no flush/str8 possibilities. EVER.

And if you do lose a stack on a set just reload and keep playing. As lng as you played the hand correctly theres nothing to worry about. And believe me the correct play is to get it all in when you have flopped a set.
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Lukie
Old 08-06-2006, 08:29 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deadgoat
Pyroxene im just look for the odds that a set vs set will occur.

So what are the odds when you hit a set some else will hit a set.

Thanks in advance
he's going to need more info then that.

If 2 players are both dealt PP's, the probability that they both hit a set is approximately 1/100.

If 2 players are both dealt PP's, and you hit a set, the probability that the other guy also hits a set is approximately 1/12.

Hope that helps. If you have a pair and he has 2 random cards in his range............. thats when it obviously gets much trickier.
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deadgoat
Old 08-06-2006, 04:06 PM #15 (permalink)  
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I really enjoy statistics. Everything points to 1 in 100. If that is true at a full ring table as of yesterday in Pokerroom skin is running about 5 in 100. It is abnormal high. I've never really believed any poker room in rigid but I'm interested in tracking this.
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Miffed22001
Old 08-06-2006, 04:12 PM #16 (permalink)  
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 i havent flopped anywhere near my statistically suggested number of sets, never mind set over set.

So dont feel sorry you lost a few.
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deadgoat
Old 08-06-2006, 06:06 PM #17 (permalink)  
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love your pics miff
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Miffed22001
Old 08-06-2006, 07:09 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deadgoat
love your pics miff
ha!

i was bored :P
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jackvance
Old 08-06-2006, 08:08 PM     Post subject: Re: When should you fold a set with no flush or straight pos #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deadgoat
AA - set 5 times
KK - set 8 times
QQ - set 10 times -> Lost Set vs Set
JJ - set 6 times
1010 - set 1 times
99 - set 13 times
88 - set 4 times -> Won Set vs Set
77 - set 8 times
66 - set 7 times
55 - set 11 times
44 - set 6 times
33 - set 5 times -> Lost Set vs Set
22 - set 6 times

set vs set 3 times out of 90. Maybe just lucky?
Deadgoat, your math is off. If you get a pp, and your opp also has a pp, then both of you will flop a set (btw I assume you're talking about hitting both sets on the flop right? not turn or river?) is..

2/48*2/47*44/46*6=0.01%

But if you flop a set and your opp has a pp, the chance that he flops a set too is..

2/47*44/46*2=8.14%

So if you flop a set and your opp has a pp, it'll be a set-overset situation 1/12th of the time. That means that the real question is.. how often do your opponents have a pp when you flop a set? This isn't that easy to answer because there is predisposition.. some people might have pps as a larger part of their range than others to see a flop with, etc.
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lonnie
Old 08-07-2006, 02:51 AM #20 (permalink)  
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I'd say that if you are able to fold an underset on a board with no flush/straight....you are probably playing at too high of stakes for your comfort level or bankroll. There are too many times people will make the same bet with top two pair, TPTK, running a bluff on a busted draw, etc.
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Turska
Old 08-07-2006, 09:43 AM #21 (permalink)  
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I would not fold set in any circumstances when there
is not obvious str/fl possibilities. You will lose sometimes
but u will win most of the time. You will lose boat under
boat too sometimes.

I guess i can remember about 5 set under set losses for
last 3 months. I guess win rate is more than 95%.
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deadgoat
Old 08-09-2006, 01:13 AM #22 (permalink)  
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Thanks jackvance, 1 in 100 was not correct then 1/12 seems to fit what I'm seeing then.
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Rockymv
Old 08-09-2006, 06:03 AM #23 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deadgoat
Thanks jackvance, 1 in 100 was not correct then 1/12 seems to fit what I'm seeing then.
I think you might be getting the wrong idea. It's not that when you flop a set you're in a set over set situation 1/12th of the time. That would only be the case if your opponent only saw the flop against you with pocket pairs. Obviously your opponent's range will usually be much wider than this, so the number you're looking for is a good deal lower than 1/12.
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Renton
Old 08-09-2006, 06:07 AM #24 (permalink)  
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 odds calculations for unfortunate situations aren't in any way relevant, or more importantly, applicable to playing a solid game.
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Rockymv
Old 08-09-2006, 06:54 AM #25 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
odds calculations for unfortunate situations aren't in any way relevant, or more importantly, applicable to playing a solid game.
no argument there...
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deadgoat
Old 08-09-2006, 05:53 PM #26 (permalink)  
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Again, I was just exploring the fact that Set VS Set might be artifically inflated. But it appears to be relatively accurate.
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givememyleg
Old 08-09-2006, 05:59 PM #27 (permalink)  
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 All this talk of set under set... that's no fun...

Let's change the subject to something everyone can enjoy... Set over set!

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martindcx1e
Old 08-09-2006, 06:08 PM #28 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by givememyleg
All this talk of set under set... that's no fun...

Let's change the subject to something everyone can enjoy... Set over set!
how often will i get set over set?
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
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