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angrystoc
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10-23-2009, 05:00 PM
Post subject: When to drop down stakes
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 35
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After a 10 BI downswing over the last 3 weeks, I'm now just under 15 BI for my current level. Previous to the downswing, I was running 8 BB/100 for about 17k hands.
I'm still confident in my game, although I do plan to take a break just to make sure my head is on straight when I do sit back down. My question is simply, if I continue to run bad at what point should I be looking to drop down? I'm currently rolled for about 35 BI at the lower level.
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WeaselT
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Flush
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Winter Park
Posts: 300
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http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ou-t81658.html
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Jason
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: TN
Posts: 883
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I say drop when you reach 20 buy-ins @ no limit - 15 is way too few, especially in today's environment no matter how well or poor you are playing.
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- Jason
 
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XTR1000
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10-23-2009, 05:50 PM
Post subject: Re: When to drop down stakes
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#4 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Location: surfing in a room
Posts: 2,188
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by angrystoc
After a 10 BI downswing over the last 3 weeks, I'm now just under 15 BI for my current level. Previous to the downswing, I was running 8 BB/100 for about 17k hands.
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How come so many people actually exclude so called "downswings" when it comes to their winrate?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
xtr stand for exotic tranny retards
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yo
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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It's called denial XTR, its where our money comes from.
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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hangchiong
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10-23-2009, 06:22 PM
Post subject: Re: When to drop down stakes
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#6 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 359
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by angrystoc
After a 10 BI downswing over the last 3 weeks, I'm now just under 15 BI for my current level. Previous to the downswing, I was running 8 BB/100 for about 17k hands.
I'm still confident in my game, although I do plan to take a break just to make sure my head is on straight when I do sit back down. My question is simply, if I continue to run bad at what point should I be looking to drop down? I'm currently rolled for about 35 BI at the lower level.
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35BI is more than enough for the lower level.
i think 15BI is a bit too little for a certain level,so drop down a bit,grind and then take a shot again.
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sarbox68
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10-23-2009, 06:28 PM
Post subject: Re: When to drop down stakes
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#7 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by angrystoc
After am 8 BB/100 heater for about 17k hands, I lost 10 BIs based on my normal level of play. I'm now just under 15 BI for my current level.
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FYP.
Not saying that it's for sure what happened... just saying it's worth considering.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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You should probably have dropped down by now. Further, if you were winning for 17K hands, and you only got to 25 buyins you probably started pretty underrolled.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Arjonius
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 122
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It depends what level you're playing at and what your full bankroll / funding situation is.
For example, if you're playing NL 5 and your roll is $75, you could drop down to NL 2. However, if you're willing to add say $50 that's currently in your e-wallet , bank account or pocket, that may change the picture. Your effective roll is actually $125, so if you're using a 20x guideline, you can still play NL 5.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Arjonius
It depends what level you're playing at and what your full bankroll / funding situation is.
For example, if you're playing NL 5 and your roll is $75, you could drop down to NL 2. However, if you're willing to add say $50 that's currently in your e-wallet , bank account or pocket, that may change the picture. Your effective roll is actually $125, so if you're using a 20x guideline, you can still play NL 5.
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If youve lost 10 buyins at any stake and it doesnt include losing more than your share of coinflips or getting 2 outered a few times you probably need to think about dropping down and reevaluating bits of your game. Its possible to be playing a winning game and lose 10 buyins, but when it happens (and especially when it happens to a pretty new player) the chances are theres something wrong with your game.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Monty3038
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10-23-2009, 08:25 PM
Post subject: Re: When to drop down stakes
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#11 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Ohio
Posts: 788
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by angrystoc
After a 10 BI downswing over the last 3 weeks, I'm now just under 15 BI for my current level. Previous to the downswing, I was running 8 BB/100 for about 17k hands.
I'm still confident in my game, although I do plan to take a break just to make sure my head is on straight when I do sit back down. My question is simply, if I continue to run bad at what point should I be looking to drop down? I'm currently rolled for about 35 BI at the lower level.
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I'm going to throw something out here that may be total crap, but here is my initial thought on your post...
If you are uncomfortable enough to ask, you should drop down. If you don't, and play where you remain uncomfortable, it will affect your play.
But I'm not a great player, so I may be full of crap.
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angrystoc
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10-23-2009, 09:15 PM
Post subject: Re: When to drop down stakes
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#12 (permalink)
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 35
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Monty3038
If you are uncomfortable enough to ask, you should drop down. If you don't, and play where you remain uncomfortable, it will affect your play.
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Yeah, that was my thought too. It's just so depressing to think of grinding back to 20-ish buy-ins at the lower level.
Also, the reason I say it's running bad, and not just coming off some statistically improbable heater, is that for the last week HEM shows my expected All-In EV at +2 BI and my Cash Winnings at -9.5 BI. I've reviewed all the big losses, written down ranges, ran them in poker stove, and being results oriented sometimes I see where I could adjust my range. I realize I should drop down... just don't want to, that's why I posted. However, I will.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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It's not that your running bad that he was debating, it's that nobody counts the running good as separate from there winrate like they do the downswings. Imagine someone saying "I was an 8BB/100 winner until I had that heater and won 16 BI's in 6K hands". Both heaters and downswings are all part of the same winrate, so to think your an 8BB/100 winner and not count the downswings is just ridiculous and sets you up for a fail when your thinking you are actually able to beat a limit underrolled.
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sarbox68
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
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A statistically improbable heater is about as likely as a statistically improbable cooler. All this being said... 20K or so sample really isn't much either way. I wouldn't put too much stock in the All-in EV stat, 'cause as I understand it, it only measures the EV when the final money went in... not the EV vs a range of all the decisions that preceded it. Plus it's based on you knowing exactly what villain had... which you don't... so I'm not even really sure that it's worth much of anything outside of entertainment value....
But you're doing the right things... reviewing big hands, etc. So be brutally honest w/ your game and, if you're feeling off kilter, dropping down to get some confidence back isn't the worse thing you could do by any stretch...
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angrystoc
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 35
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I switched sites, and don't know how to combine the graphs in HEM.
(And yes, I realize that switching sites could definitely affect my win rate. However, I considered that, and decided that if that were the case, HEM wouldn't show my EV as positive still.)
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angrystoc
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 35
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sarbox68
A statistically improbable heater is about as likely as a statistically improbable cooler. All this being said... 20K or so sample really isn't much either way. I wouldn't put too much stock in the All-in EV stat, 'cause as I understand it, it only measures the EV when the final money went in... not the EV vs a range of all the decisions that preceded it. Plus it's based on you knowing exactly what villain had... which you don't... so I'm not even really sure that it's worth much of anything outside of entertainment value....
But you're doing the right things... reviewing big hands, etc. So be brutally honest w/ your game and, if you're feeling off kilter, dropping down to get some confidence back isn't the worse thing you could do by any stretch...
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Sarbox, that's definitely true about EV, but I think it goes both ways. I had a hand against a laggy villain yesterday where I got it all in on the river with the nuts straight, only to have the villain show down with a full house (pocket Aces). Villain was obviously at the tip top of his range, but I got my money in with good equity vs. his range. However, HEM's EV stat will show that as me getting my money in dead.
I'm not at home, or I could post the HH.
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sarbox68
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
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Which is all the more reason why I believe it's a POS stat....
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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Post your stats so we can evaluate it.. you might have an assload of leaks and if so, it does you no good to drop down because the leaks will still be there when you move up again.
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TonyB73
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 414
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drop down
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,072
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by angrystoc
Quote:
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Originally Posted by sarbox68
A statistically improbable heater is about as likely as a statistically improbable cooler. All this being said... 20K or so sample really isn't much either way. I wouldn't put too much stock in the All-in EV stat, 'cause as I understand it, it only measures the EV when the final money went in... not the EV vs a range of all the decisions that preceded it. Plus it's based on you knowing exactly what villain had... which you don't... so I'm not even really sure that it's worth much of anything outside of entertainment value....
But you're doing the right things... reviewing big hands, etc. So be brutally honest w/ your game and, if you're feeling off kilter, dropping down to get some confidence back isn't the worse thing you could do by any stretch...
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Sarbox, that's definitely true about EV, but I think it goes both ways. I had a hand against a laggy villain yesterday where I got it all in on the river with the nuts straight, only to have the villain show down with a full house (pocket Aces). Villain was obviously at the tip top of his range, but I got my money in with good equity vs. his range. However, HEM's EV stat will show that as me getting my money in dead.
I'm not at home, or I could post the HH. |
Coupla things.
1. To combine stats in HEM, you make an alias and put the usernames from both sites into one alias username. Then all your stats get displayed when you look at graphs or reports.
2. HEM has the Sklansky bucks EV stat in the reports, just not in the graphs. You can look at the more standard "Equity EV" stat by customizing your reports to ditch the all-in EV and instead use the Equity EV. Unfortunately, I haven't found a way to reconfigure the graphs to show a useful EV stat.
3. Drop down. If you're a solid winner one level down, 10 BI's (to get you back up to 20 BI for the current stakes) won't take all that long. Your confidence is obviously sketchy right now, or you wouldn't be posting. Even if you only grind out a dozen BI lower down, it will massively change your attitude when you hop back to these stakes in a few weeks.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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Normally a question like this means you know you should drop down, but you dont want to because you're sure its just about to turn around. Just move down.
This limit should be set when you move up. In other words it should already be part of your BRM plan. For me, at micros I moved up at 20 and down at 15. No exceptions. At small stakes I move up at 30 and down at 25. Its personal, but once set it shouldnt change based on whim or feeling.
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Just playing to improve.
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callie
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 3
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hi there..im a beginner..dunno much abt poker but would love to learn..a term i recently came across was pocket rocket..is it relevant to poker
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Dash
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Two Pair
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 36
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Ooh, me first! Me first!
Sometimes I gots da nutz, I weak c-bet to rep a bluff, random donk smells blood and shoves. As I reach for the little slider, I feel a pocket rocket beginning to form.....
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callie
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 3
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Dash, could you be more specific in ur reply..i din get a word of what u said..lol..anyway...thnx
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callie
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 3
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Dash, could you be more specific in ur reply..i din get a word of what u said..lol..anyway...thnx
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