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When is it correct to make continuation bets?

  
 
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martindcx1e
Old 03-29-2006, 06:16 PM     Post subject: When is it correct to make continuation bets? #1 (permalink)  
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So as a general rule one shouldn't make a bet when it will only be called by a better hand, correct? Say you have AK UTG and raise 4x BB. The CO calls and everyone else folds. Flop is Q 7 2 rainbow. Should you make a c-bet? This is pretty much a drawless board so wouldn't the only call you get from the CO be a made hand? What if there is 2 to a flush? Should you bet hoping they will realize they aren't getting good odds to draw? One other situation is when you are HU in position and your opponent checks the flop and the turn. This usually looks pretty weak correct? Should you bet to try to take down the pot even if you have nothing or will you usually just get called by a better hand? I'd really like to see some discussion on this subject, and someone please correct me if my thinking is off anywhere.
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Old 03-29-2006, 06:22 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Well my thought process is when making a continuation bet of half the pot you only need to win with that bet 1/3 times to make it a break even play.

Of course you should vary your cont. bets to throw people off and disguise when you are value betting. But try to keep it an average of 50% of the pot and its a good move.


Thats my views on a cont. bet at least would like to see others inputs.
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Fnord
Old 03-29-2006, 06:25 PM     Post subject: Re: When is it correct to make continuation bets? #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
So as a general rule one shouldn't make a bet when it will only be called by a better hand, correct?
I LOVE to bet with air. Almost as much as I like to bet with the nuts.

My rule is:
If I would hate to be raised because calling/folding would probably be close then I generally don't re-open the betting.

The exception to this is when you're against players that call way too much and rarely raise. Then you can value bet marginal hands all day and just suck it up and fold to raises (these weak folds are made correct by their tight raises anyway.)

Here is a great example.

Sucker limps, you iso-raise AKo, bb refuses to fold and the flop comes Q T 5 two-tone (matches your Ace.) With a backdoor nut frush draw, 2 overs and a gutshot to the nuts you would really hate to be raised. You might even have the best hand. Also, with 2 broadways on the board there is a good chance the other guy caught so checking behind here is a pretty good play.

It works particularly well when you've been caught bluffing and have pounded the crap out of every hand you've been in. Players will get very suspicous of your check behind and many will slow down.
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Irisheyes
Old 03-29-2006, 06:26 PM #4 (permalink)  
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You are forgetting that he opponent folding is also +EV for you. Think about it, you raise to 4xbb preflop, he calls putting in another 4bb. Then when you bet and he folds we are +4bb for the hand.
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Fnord
Old 03-29-2006, 06:28 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ProZachNation
Well my thought process is when making a continuation bet of half the pot you only need to win with that bet 1/3 times to make it a break even play.
The problem with this play is that 1/2 pot won't induce as many folds as a bigger bet and doesn't build a pot as fast when you want to play a big one.
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martindcx1e
Old 03-29-2006, 06:30 PM     Post subject: Re: When is it correct to make continuation bets? #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
So as a general rule one shouldn't make a bet when it will only be called by a better hand, correct?
I LOVE to bet with air. Almost as much as I like to bet with the nuts.

My rule is:
If I would hate to be raised because calling/folding would probably be close then I generally don't re-open the betting.
Wouldn't you always hate to be raised when betting with air? Help me understand please.
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Fnord
Old 03-29-2006, 06:34 PM     Post subject: Re: When is it correct to make continuation bets? #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Wouldn't you always hate to be raised when betting with air? Help me understand please.
No, it's a really easy laydown.
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martindcx1e
Old 03-29-2006, 06:36 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irisheyes
You are forgetting that he opponent folding is also +EV for you. Think about it, you raise to 4xbb preflop, he calls putting in another 4bb. Then when you bet and he folds we are +4bb for the hand.
Ah yes so follow through with a bet on the flop when you have hit your hand or when you have missed but there's still a good chance your opponent is weak(er) as well?
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martindcx1e
Old 03-29-2006, 06:37 PM     Post subject: Re: When is it correct to make continuation bets? #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Wouldn't you always hate to be raised when betting with air? Help me understand please.
No, it's a really easy laydown.
Oh so you meant you would hate to be raised because it would be a tough decision for you. OK that makes sense.
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Irisheyes
Old 03-29-2006, 06:41 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irisheyes
You are forgetting that he opponent folding is also +EV for you. Think about it, you raise to 4xbb preflop, he calls putting in another 4bb. Then when you bet and he folds we are +4bb for the hand.
Ah yes so follow through with a bet on the flop when you have hit your hand or when you have missed but there's still a good chance your opponent is weak(er) as well?
A preflop unpaired hand makes a pair on the flop only approx. 33% of the time. The other 66% of the time a person is weak.
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naturaltan
Old 03-29-2006, 06:46 PM #11 (permalink)  
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At the $10 level, always. It's rare that I get after betting .60 from any position with AK + that a continuation of bet of pot size will be called. If so, firing another barrel usually takes care of that. I've been caught very rarely with trips of the 88 and less nature, but rare.
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BankItDrew
Old 03-29-2006, 07:05 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 Always, unless I have ace high and I'm oop with two or more callers or i'm in LP with 3 or more callers.


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Renton
Old 03-29-2006, 08:30 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 If I raise a limped pot, I am looking for high cards on the flop in order to c-bet. On a flop of 443, I just don't think a flop bet gets very much credibility.

If I open raise preflop and get called, I am more likely to c-bet if there are low cards on the flop. I think you get credit for an overpair here enough for a c-bet to work.
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Fnord
Old 03-30-2006, 01:03 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
On a flop of 443, I just don't think a flop bet gets very much credibility.
Many players will pause....then fold anyway. Trick is figuring out who.
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BankItDrew
Old 03-30-2006, 02:10 AM #15 (permalink)  
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 One way to play a hand w/o a c/bet: No draws, the only hands that beat me are sets, so I figured I'd let him put the $$ in the pot for me.

PokerStars Game #4458618069: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2006/03/29 - 22:00:45 (ET)
Table 'Echemmon IV' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: asu0610 ($66.95 in chips)
Seat 3: Neutron Girl ($44.25 in chips)
Seat 4: Jas5mine ($21.35 in chips)
Seat 5: PandaSaurus ($61.55 in chips)
Seat 6: Shnuggles ($27.30 in chips)
Seat 7: kyedward ($32.50 in chips)
Seat 8: Asmo1 ($81.20 in chips)
Seat 9: BankItDrew ($58.10 in chips)
PandaSaurus: posts small blind $0.25
Shnuggles: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BankItDrew [Ad As]
kyedward: folds
Asmo1: folds
BankItDrew: raises $2.50 to $3
asu0610: folds
Neutron Girl: folds
Jas5mine: folds
PandaSaurus: calls $2.75
Shnuggles: folds
*** FLOP *** [2d 7s 4h]
PandaSaurus: checks
Jas5mine is disconnected
BankItDrew: checks
*** TURN *** [2d 7s 4h] [8c]
PandaSaurus: bets $6
BankItDrew: calls $6
*** RIVER *** [2d 7s 4h 8c] [5h]
PandaSaurus: bets $14.50
BankItDrew: calls $14.50
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PandaSaurus: shows [Qh Kh] (high card King)
BankItDrew: shows [Ad As] (a pair of Aces)
BankItDrew collected $45.20 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $47.50 | Rake $2.30
Board [2d 7s 4h 8c 5h]
Seat 2: asu0610 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Neutron Girl folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Jas5mine (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: PandaSaurus (small blind) showed [Qh Kh] and lost with high card King
Seat 6: Shnuggles (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: kyedward folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Asmo1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: BankItDrew showed [Ad As] and won ($45.20) with a pair of Aces


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Old 03-30-2006, 04:19 AM #16 (permalink)  
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 Why didn't you reraise his river bet? You have the same profit if he folds, can only stand to gain more if he calls it.
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BankItDrew
Old 03-30-2006, 05:07 AM #17 (permalink)  
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 i suppose i was happy with him not stacking with a 6. and if i put him on a bluff, i figured he'd fold to any raise. but i see your point..


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natdang
Old 03-30-2006, 07:46 AM #18 (permalink)  
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This is all really great reading, and it has been really interesting reading all of your thoughts.

Another few things to consider are position (as always) and also, if the pot is multiway, how many people are in the pot with you. What I mean by that is, if you pf raise with AK and get 4 people trailing you into the pot, then proceed to miss the flop, your hand is probably not good. Betting with air here is a bit risky, and if you're playing with some of the calling stations I've been playing with, probably not a good idea.
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Old 03-30-2006, 07:58 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItPayette
i suppose i was happy with him not stacking with a 6. and if i put him on a bluff, i figured he'd fold to any raise. but i see your point..
Well, I mentionned this b/c it is something I noticed myself doing too.. kinda like a "I'm a bit afraid he has this card, so quickly check it to get it over with".. but in these types of situations, where I'm riding on the notion I have him beat, I've noticed I'm right most of the time, and they will probably call a minraise if they've come so far.. so the times this adds to your profit should outweigh the times it backfires. I think.

@natdag: I'd never c-bet vs more than 2 people. And from 10NL experience, at the lower stakes, c-betting is seriously -EV. Most of the time someone will call it, because:
- he likes to gamble on something he might get on the turn/river (today I saw a guy call a pot-sized bet on the turn, gambling for his flush.. he actually hit too, and got lucky his opp didn't read him right, cuz when he raised, he actually got reraised lol.. so, seeing his gambling affirmed, no doubt he'll be doing lots more of this in the future)
- he'll call everything with any crap he gets, because he thinks everyone is bluffing (same guy called my leading bets down to the river with J high.. em, what did he think I'd have?..)
- he'll call everything with LP, because he is afraid otherwise he might miss out on a pot
- even though he didn't hit anything, he just likes his hand so much he can't lay it down.
- (etc)
- he actually hit something!

If I haven't seen a guy fold to some medium bets a fews times before, I'm not gonna try to bluff him out..
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shysti
Old 04-04-2006, 11:50 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jackvance
Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItPayette
i suppose i was happy with him not stacking with a 6. and if i put him on a bluff, i figured he'd fold to any raise. but i see your point..
Well, I mentionned this b/c it is something I noticed myself doing too.. kinda like a "I'm a bit afraid he has this card, so quickly check it to get it over with".. but in these types of situations, where I'm riding on the notion I have him beat, I've noticed I'm right most of the time, and they will probably call a minraise if they've come so far.. so the times this adds to your profit should outweigh the times it backfires. I think.

@natdag: I'd never c-bet vs more than 2 people. And from 10NL experience, at the lower stakes, c-betting is seriously -EV. Most of the time someone will call it, because:
- he likes to gamble on something he might get on the turn/river (today I saw a guy call a pot-sized bet on the turn, gambling for his flush.. he actually hit too, and got lucky his opp didn't read him right, cuz when he raised, he actually got reraised lol.. so, seeing his gambling affirmed, no doubt he'll be doing lots more of this in the future)
- he'll call everything with any crap he gets, because he thinks everyone is bluffing (same guy called my leading bets down to the river with J high.. em, what did he think I'd have?..)
- he'll call everything with LP, because he is afraid otherwise he might miss out on a pot
- even though he didn't hit anything, he just likes his hand so much he can't lay it down.
- (etc)
- he actually hit something!

If I haven't seen a guy fold to some medium bets a fews times before, I'm not gonna try to bluff him out..
Ive been reading a lot of your posts and you seem to know a lot I need to pick your brain
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WhooFleuryScores
Old 04-05-2006, 03:28 AM #21 (permalink)  
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With a missed AK/AQ/AJs here is my usual line:

If the flop is rags rainbow I am c-betting.Depending on the opponent and turn I will either check or bet.

If the flop is highly coordinated I may decide to check then ESP if up against multiple loose calling happies.

If the opponent is a solid TAG and plays back at me and I have Ace high I may call and check fold the turn then.
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