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daven

09-20-2009, 09:36 PM Post subject: what are you trying to suggest?

#1 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,805

so, anyone interested in talking about implied odds vs pot odds?
and is this call ok?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($421.10)
Hero (MP2) ($174.65)
CO ($140.30)
Button ($94.30)
SB ($100)
BB ($57)
UTG ($131.15)
UTG+1 ($108)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5

, 7

2 folds, MP1 calls $1, Hero calls $1, 3 folds, BB checks

Flop: ($3.50) K

, J

, 6

(3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold

Turn: ($10.50) 4

(2 players)
MP1 bets $10.50, Hero calls $10.50

edited to add reads etc that i posted below, cos nobody ever reads whole threads
anyone going to count outs, do some math, etc?

or ask for reads on villain?
or maybe put villain on a range?
or suggest his likely river play on various river cards?

for what it's worth, over 650 hands:
26-9-3 (vpip-pfr-3-bet)
50-0-65-59 (fold to 3bet-4bet-cbet-fold to cbet)

How about history?
he's seen me win pots with good hands, fail to win hands with bad bluffs, check mid-strength hands behind, etc... I don't know if he's likely to have taken much notice though.
I don't have my other notes available cos I use the FT notes functionality rather than that in HEM.

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

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ColdDecked

09-20-2009, 10:02 PM

#2 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 217

Given that we're deep I think call is good. Since he's potting 2 streets I think that he's pretty strong. Our implied odds are huge since we have the caught a backdoor draw on the turn. If an 8 or 3 hits, it look like a blank and if he bets and you shove, there's not much you rep and it'd really look like a desperation bluff with a busted straight or flush draw. Heck, I might even shove if he checks river non club 8 or 3 since it'll polarize our hands to bluffs or nuts, and the way you played the hands the nuts don't really make much sense unless you have exactly 5c7c.

Stacks

09-20-2009, 10:07 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ColdDecked

Heck, I might even shove if he checks river non club 8 or 3 since it'll polarize our hands to bluffs or nuts, and the way you played the hands the nuts don't really make much sense unless you have exactly 5c7c.

???

Micro2Macro

09-20-2009, 10:18 PM

#4 (permalink)

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This is quite intersting, I used to call here without much thought.

Now I lean towards folding.

"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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ColdDecked

09-20-2009, 10:25 PM

#5 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 217

Well, if a non club 3 or 8 falls I doubt the villain will be checking river. But if he does it's probably with the intention of inducing a bluff since the obvious draws miss and only one combo makes the nuts. Other hands hero calling 2 streets here will probably check behind river for showdown.

Micro2Macro

09-20-2009, 10:29 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Hmmmm...look closer.

Stacks

09-20-2009, 10:30 PM

#7 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ColdDecked

So since if villain checks it's likely he's trying to induce a bluff so he can c/c, and since our line doesn't make much sense for a strong hand (as you say), then you want to overbet shove the river?

daven

09-20-2009, 10:46 PM

#8 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,805

anyone going to count outs, do some math, etc?

or ask for reads on villain?
or maybe put villain on a range?
or suggest his likely river play on various river cards?

for what it's worth, over 650 hands:
26-9-3 (vpip-pfr-3-bet)
50-0-65-59 (fold to 3bet-4bet-cbet-fold to cbet)

How about history?
he's seen me win pots with good hands, fail to win hands with bad bluffs, check mid-strength hands behind, etc... I don't know if he's likely to have taken much notice though.
I don't have my other notes available cos I use the FT notes functionality rather than that in HEM.

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

bigspenda73

09-20-2009, 10:47 PM

#9 (permalink)

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bigspenda73 will become famous soon enough

lol@whoeversaidfold

ColdDecked

09-20-2009, 10:50 PM

#10 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 217

I might just be outlevelling myself right now, but if villain plays this line, and let's say villain is calling a psb 75% of the time, I don't think villain won't be calling an overbet with the same hand less than 15% of the time. Maybe not a shove, but I think we should overbet the pot.

surviva316

09-20-2009, 10:53 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

This is quite intersting, I used to call here without much thought.

Now I lean towards folding.

surely this has to be a level to say this before daven even gave us reads. now that we have reads, we can't fold because he doesn't have better draws very often (so our ROI is clean), and he has a strong range (so our implied odds are good).

the math stuff's super simple, and this is the sorta thing you should have memorized (though the issue of how many of our outs are clean against how much of his range makes this a little more interesting [e.g. he has a set here a mentionable amount of the time]). i'll let others take some swings at it before i spoilerize

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Micro2Macro

09-20-2009, 11:01 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Oh wow I just realized we have a few more outs with the OESD too.

Be more intersting if the turn was the 2h imo, especially when the 4c and Jc pair the board.

Micro2Macro

09-20-2009, 11:16 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Okay I'll get us started on the basics:

We have 15 outs to improve, so roughly 30% to make our straight or flush. We're facing a PSB so we're getting 2:1 on our call. Right away we pretty much have nearly the correct pot odds - and we have about 16:1 implied given the effective stack sizes. This is ignoring the fact our outs are dirty.

We need to figure out how often our hand won't be good when we hit, so we need to figure out his range and the frequency we'll be getting all the money in bad on the river vs getting it in good.

Here's a turn betting range: Let me know what I missed, what you guys I should remove etc. Just quickly came up with this:

66,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,8c9c,JcTc,KJs-KTs,QTs,KJo-KTo

Thoughts?

So on the river I guess we could assume he bet/calls with 2pair+, and bet/folds worse?

ColdDecked

09-20-2009, 11:39 PM

#14 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 217

Actually, if river is a non-club 3 or 8, and he checks, just overbet pot, but don't shove river because this is a great spot for villain to crai (if he's capable), since almost nothing in our range bets river for value.

I hope my comments aren't messing with/derailing this thread too much, didn't have much sleep so my thoughts are a little weird right now...

Stacks

09-21-2009, 12:14 AM

#15 (permalink)

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Posts: 2,605

k.. So it was my bad. I interpretted your post as you were thinking of choving river if a club, 8, or 3 doesn't not come, as a bluff. Which obviously make no sense. I see now you meant overbet if the river is 8d, 8h, 8s, 3s, 3d, 3h.. I was just misinterpreting what you were saying...

And yes, it's a pretty sexy overbet if we hit our backdoor straight as villain could interpret it as loads of bluffs and our range is polarized with a very small value range.

daven

09-21-2009, 05:34 AM

#16 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,805

Quote:

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Here's a turn betting range: Let me know what I missed, what you guys I should remove etc. Just quickly came up with this:

66,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,8c9c,JcTc,KJs-KTs,QTs,KJo-KTo

Thoughts?

So on the river I guess we could assume he bet/calls with 2pair+, and bet/folds worse?

re turn range, villain is not of the right type of aggression to pot barrel draws. Fewer people do this than most imagine. His sizing screams MADE HAND. A range for villain that is more appropriate
KQ/KJ/66/44

re the river - I think he plays club rivers a lot differently to 3s and 8s that he will perceive as blanks.

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

Sasquach991

09-21-2009, 03:16 PM

#17 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by daven

Quote:

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

...A range for villain that is more appropriate
KQ/KJ/66/44

...

Why not K6 or J6? Would he limp pf with KJ?

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Extremophile

09-21-2009, 03:30 PM

#18 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Oct 2008

Location: Stackton

Posts: 451

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($2.13)
CO ($4.44)
Hero (Button) ($2.92)
SB ($1.69)
BB ($1)
UTG ($5.28)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K

, K

UTG calls $0.02, 2 folds, Hero bets $0.10, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.23) 7

, 5

, 6

(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.12, UTG calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.47) 5

(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.30, UTG calls $0.30

River: ($1.07) 4

(2 players)
UTG bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

What I learnt from this example is that the implied odds are pretty much opponent dependent. If he is retarded enough like myself he will call your bet on the river and you have good implied odds. Otherwise you should fold this hand. Any reads on the opponent?

daven

09-21-2009, 04:41 PM

#19 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,805

Quote:

Originally Posted by Extremophile

What I learnt from this example is that the implied odds are pretty much opponent dependent. If he is retarded enough like myself he will call your bet on the river and you have good implied odds. Otherwise you should fold this hand. Any reads on the opponent?

reads were posted middle of the thread, i added them to op

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

philly and the phanatics

09-21-2009, 06:32 PM

#20 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Dec 2006

Posts: 1,109

philly and the phanatics is a jewel in the rough

i mean if you take out all the higher FD hands he could have an narrow his range to KQ/KJ/66/44 (lol @ someone wanting to include k6 and j6 into the limping range of someone who is 26-9...yea he prob is limping kj and kq esp. from this position)

then like m2m said, dont oyu basically already have pot odds now. Given that you can at least get anything on the river if you do hit then you def have your implied odds.

Plans for certain rivers-

blanks- fold to any bet, check behind, despite having lost 10bb's on the turn bet (16bb's total i think), its def alright to take this lost. The reason i wouldnt bluff it if it is any non-ace blank, is that given his range the boards texture is such that he is basically not folding ever. and a shove looks way too much like a busted FD. Given the 2 calls for 2 streets.

non club-3 or 8- like someone said before, i like the overbet here, the 3's and 8s def look like blanks and our range will have a lot of bluffs in it if we are betting big here. And like i said before given the texture of the board i doubt this guy is folding like ever

Flush- if he pots the river i def shove over it. If he checks id probably throw out a psb and try and fish for a call.

daven

09-21-2009, 09:15 PM

#21 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,805

ok, based on reads and i think an accurate guess at villain's range being KQ/KJ/66/44 - we now have 13 clean outs, so approximately 26% to hit on the river.

We are required to call $10.50 into $31.50, so we do not have direct pot odds to make the call. We should only make the call if we think we can extract at least another $10 from villain when we hit to make the call +EV.

The hidden straight outs are great, 6 of the outs are hugely disguised and villain will bet-call often when we hit.
If villain is the type of player to bet-fold or check-call if we hit the obvious flush draw then we are also going to make the required money.

morale of the story, hidden outs are way better than obvious outs. Reads on whether villain will bet-fold vs check-fold when a draw hits are important considerations when calling a draw for reasons of 'implied odds'.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($421.10)
Hero (MP2) ($174.65)
CO ($140.30)
Button ($94.30)
SB ($100)
BB ($57)
UTG ($131.15)
UTG+1 ($108)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5

, 7

2 folds, MP1 calls $1, Hero calls $1, 3 folds, BB checks

Flop: ($3.50) K

, J

, 6

(3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold

Turn: ($10.50) 4

(2 players)
MP1 bets $10.50, Hero calls $10.50

River: ($31.50) 8

(2 players)
MP1 bets $31.50, Hero raises to $159.65 (All-In), MP1 calls $128.15

Total pot: $350.80 | Rake: $3

Results below:
MP1 had J

, K

(two pair, Kings and Jacks).
Hero had 5

, 7

(straight, eight high).
Outcome: Hero won $347.80

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

Micro2Macro

09-21-2009, 09:54 PM

#22 (permalink)

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man I need to get on a site that has a bet pot button, I swear I've never seen anyone pot the river on stars.

nh

bjsaust

09-22-2009, 05:17 AM

#23 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: May 2007

Location: Ballarat, Australia

Posts: 5,842

Its very hard not to have implied odds here tbh. Its surprising when you do the maths.

Just playing to improve.

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