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What would you have done? v.flush draw

  
 
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ECdub
Old 09-19-2005, 01:59 AM     Post subject: What would you have done? v.flush draw #1 (permalink)  

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ECdub
okay, no hand history here, sorry. But please bare with me.

new table. like second hand, so no reads on anyone as of yet.

I'm dealt 9d 10d

everyone folds except the blinds.

River is 6h 7d 3c

Yes! I only need an 8 and i have a nut straight. And no possible flush on the board for the villain! I decide since the odds of hitting the 8 is 30% i can call a bet of 30% of the pot.

Villain bets $1 of a 3$ pot. I call. So does the small blind.

turn is 3c.

Villain bets $9, throwing the % way too high for a 25% chance to hit an 8 on the river, so i fold.

Lo and behold, river is an 8.
Blinds showdown, and the winning hand is three-of-a-kind, 3's.




should i have stayed for the river?
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TLR
Old 09-19-2005, 08:34 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Were you on the Big blind ?
On the flop you had 2 weak overs and an inside draw.
The chances of hitting an 8 by the river is about 16% and not 30%.
I would haev folded on the flop.
However if you believed your 2 overs are good as well then you have 10 outs which is a bit less the 40%, which makes sense to call
You had no reaon in hell to call the turn bet of $9


 
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biondino
Old 09-19-2005, 11:37 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Every single time you let a hand like this annoy you, or EVEN SLIGHTLY make you think that you shouldn't have folded, you become a worse poker player.

Oh, and you had a 8.5% chance of hitting an 8 on the river, not a 25% chance. Where are you getting your figures from?? You seriously need to fix this leak or you'll be making bad bets till you go broke.
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ECdub
Old 09-25-2005, 09:37 AM #4 (permalink)  

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ECdub
Quote:
Originally Posted by biondino
Every single time you let a hand like this annoy you, or EVEN SLIGHTLY make you think that you shouldn't have folded, you become a worse poker player.

Oh, and you had a 8.5% chance of hitting an 8 on the river, not a 25% chance. Where are you getting your figures from?? You seriously need to fix this leak or you'll be making bad bets till you go broke.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/chart_pot_odds.html

the chart on this site says 8 outs = 30%

on the turn the % droppes to roughly 15%.


8.5%? am i reading the charts wrong?
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DoGGz
Old 09-25-2005, 10:14 AM     Post subject: Re: What would you have done? v.flush draw #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ECdub
okay, no hand history here, sorry. But please bare with me.

new table. like second hand, so no reads on anyone as of yet.

I'm dealt 9d 10d

everyone folds except the blinds.

River is 6h 7d 3c

Yes! I only need an 8 and i have a nut straight. And no possible flush on the board for the villain! I decide since the odds of hitting the 8 is 30% i can call a bet of 30% of the pot.

Villain bets $1 of a 3$ pot. I call. So does the small blind.

turn is 3c.

Villain bets $9, throwing the % way too high for a 25% chance to hit an 8 on the river, so i fold.

Lo and behold, river is an 8.
Blinds showdown, and the winning hand is three-of-a-kind, 3's.




should i have stayed for the river?
Why are you even questioning yourself? You should be able to answer this yourself.
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satan1974
Old 09-25-2005, 10:19 AM     Post subject: Re: What would you have done? v.flush draw #6 (permalink)  
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satan1974
Quote:
Originally Posted by ECdub
Villain bets $9, throwing the % way too high for a 25% chance to hit an 8 on the river, so i fold.
Lo and behold, river is an 8.
should i have stayed for the river?
You _have_ answered this already. Re-read the above. (Hint, the answer is "no").
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sandstorm
Old 09-25-2005, 04:05 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ECdub
Quote:
Originally Posted by biondino
Every single time you let a hand like this annoy you, or EVEN SLIGHTLY make you think that you shouldn't have folded, you become a worse poker player.

Oh, and you had a 8.5% chance of hitting an 8 on the river, not a 25% chance. Where are you getting your figures from?? You seriously need to fix this leak or you'll be making bad bets till you go broke.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/chart_pot_odds.html

the chart on this site says 8 outs = 30%

on the turn the % droppes to roughly 15%.


8.5%? am i reading the charts wrong?
Since you are looking for one of the remaining eights, you are drawing to FOUR outs.
>3

this is my favourite part of the post
it looks like angry boobs
 
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Miffed22001
Old 09-26-2005, 01:11 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 Poker is about making the right play.
So ask yourself not how much money would i have made but did i make the right play?
Preflop i can justify you calling with that hand (just about anyway with number of opps etc)
On the flop we can just about justify the call too (gutshot and two possible live over cards)
but you cannot in any way justify making the turn call with the draws you have and i would consider any pair i hit to be no good.
Therefore by folding here do you make the right play?
yes
Therefore forget you hit the river for bad odds, you made the right play and if you continue to make 'the right play' in relation to drawing to hands you will money more often than not.
So dont let this hand bother you at all.
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DaHorror
Old 09-28-2005, 05:34 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Personally I think you should not play at this site any more.
The deck is crooked.

Board is 6h 7d 3c 3c

??

Did the winner have Ad 3c too?
I don't like the sound of this site at all. Please inform us as to which site you are playing so we can all avoid it!
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