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|~|ypermegachi
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10-19-2004, 05:10 PM
Post subject: what should be reasonable win/loss swings be?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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what do you guys think are the norm for win/loss swings? i've only been playing for 3 months now...and to say the least i'm not too impressed with my swings so far. i've only made about $120 bucks overall. that really blows. i play about an hour a day.
i've went on swings of 90 bucks both ways. actually more defined on the downward way...i could lose 60 bucks playing fixed in one session. but then the next session i would go up 50.
what should be normal swings for 0.50/1 games?
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BoondockSaint
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Indiana
Posts: 1,844
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Well I'm not sure on limit but if you are talking NL for 50 dollar buy in games I would say 200 down. Usually my swings stay around the 4 buy in range but have gone as much as 6-7. But maybe the fact that I play 4 tables at the same time has something to do with it. There has been plenty of times I go from up 4x to even and even to down 4x and back up. When I was playing just one though I dont remember the swings being so great. That was 10s of 1000s of hands ago though so I dont remember for sure. I was a lot more conservative back then too.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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so what should regular swings for NL be? around 4 or 5 the max buyin?
what about fixed? like 30x the BB?
multitabling obviously amplifies all of this, so let's assume we're playing 2 tables, and we're calculating swings PER table. that way we're not entirely focused on the game, but enough that we can still make money.
once you're playing 4 tables you're not playing the opponents anymore, you're just playing the cards. and that will cut into your profits.
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koolmoe
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by hypermegachi
what about fixed? like 30x the BB?
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If you can't handle a -100 BB swing, you're definitely playing above your head. It might take many hours to reach this point, but a swing that large is definitely coming, and coming relatively often. Bigger swings will happen, but that's a good starting point.
People say that you should have at least 300 BB for a bankroll, but you can play with less if you are willing to reload.
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multitabling obviously amplifies all of this
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Unless multitabling reduces your win rate, it has no effect on the probability of a big swing. It just makes you get there faster, since you play more hands per given unit of time.
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once you're playing 4 tables you're not playing the opponents anymore, you're just playing the cards. and that will cut into your profits.
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If you are "playing the player" at .50/1, that's probably cutting into your profits more than multitabling.
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BoondockSaint
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Indiana
Posts: 1,844
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Quote:
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once you're playing 4 tables you're not playing the opponents anymore, you're just playing the cards. and that will cut into your profits.
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Maybe your profit per hand but by no means overall. I play a general player and dont keep tons of notes or anything. The average player(not any specific one just the table as a whole I guess) at 50 and lower buy in stakes is rather predicatable and easy to beat. If I move up into like 200 buy in and larger I will not play 4 tables, probably 2.
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so what should regular swings for NL be? around 4 or 5 the max buyin?
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Yes I would say thats about right. But yeah thats about your average swings I would say. Probably closer to 4 than 5. Of course like kool said you will have the bigger ones now and then.
Another thing I suggest doing since you seem to be fairly new is to bonus whore the shit out of sites. Then most of the time if you have a bad game your bonus always offsets it to take you back into the positive or even. You arent attached to your money as much as I think that makes you play better. Then by the time you are done whoring you will probably be good enough to not really need them anymore and then they are just like free cash.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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speaking of bonus whoring...i took advice from another site trying to playing blackjack to bonus whore. well i lost 40 bucks to the casino because i forgot to read the terms...only 20% of the wager requirements can be BJ...anywho, i'm bonus whoring party right now, WOW it's easy! i've cleared 200 hands already in 3 hours.
maybe i was wrong about multitabling...i'll have to try quad tabling one day and see if i do well or bad. most players on party are calling stations. there was this one time i saw someone go from 50 bucks to 100 playing 0.5/1 limit, i checked out the stuff he played on pokertracker...and WOW!!! anything suited he plays. face card + anything, he plays. i couldn't believe the crap he was getting away with!
he went on my buddy list :P
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DavSimon
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Mount Holly, NC
Posts: 813
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Just to add a little input from another new player. I just took my first significant downswing over the last two days. I had adjusted me October goal to $1000, after making $500 in Sept. somewhat easily. I got too confident - As of Saturday I was around +800, but took a -$210 nose-dive in the last two days....and I had just recently been doing the bonus whoring thing and my winning are spread over 4 sites right now....so I'm in a slight pickle. Play this site with a smaller than normal roll, stop playing at this site and clear bonuses at the other sites and redeposit. I am still up roughly $600 for October, but I am spread a little too thin bonus whoring. All this to say: I feel your pain with the big swing and learn from my mistake - don't take the bonus whoring too far too fast.
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BoondockSaint
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Indiana
Posts: 1,844
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I feel your pain with the big swing and learn from my mistake - don't take the bonus whoring too far too fast.
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Very true if you are on a pretty limited bankroll. I've had as much as 3,000 tied up in poker rooms before. I had the bankroll for it though so it was fine but be careful. I always go for the maximum bonus though so thats part of the reason it got so high. There is no shame taking a partial bonus if you cant afford it.
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Radashack
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 522
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You know i've never bonus whored... I probably should  , i'm just not that fond of ring games... i play .50 1 every now and again make 25 bucks and quit.
I think my swings are a bit different.... I fund my bankroll through SNG's where 1 first is enough to cover 3 more entries including the one you just won Right now I will about 95% of the time win 1 out of 5 and usually place ITM 2 - 3 more times, There are bad runs but the overall picture Has me consistently winning money with very little loss I play an average of 50 - 75 in a week.
*note* I lost a good deal of bankroll when I made the switch from rings to SNG's. It took a lot of study and practice on my game before I started winning fairly consistantly, but i would never go back
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