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LuckySlevin
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07-09-2008, 04:31 PM
Post subject: What is the probability of this happening
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Live Poker Room
Posts: 1,050
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I have and Ace and a high value card pre flop and am playing at a table with eight players, and I want to know what the probability is of an Ace or the high value card coming up on the flop.
The reason being I lost a game today when I called a leaders all in, this has happened to me twice today, but I learnt from my last mistake I just had 8-8's and got beat, and thanks to the replies to my other post I've learnt that this is like tossing a coin.
But this time though I had Ace King, and the chip leader still beat me with 9-9. By this time there was only us two left in the hand everyone else had folded.
Thanks
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AlphaKennyBody
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 108
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Um, there is the board that determines which hand will win too, ya know. Otherwise it'd be a pretty boring game.
From a statistical standpoint, when you have something like 88 vs. AK and it's all in preflop, the 8's are about a 55% favorite. And your two situations seem pretty standard, so nhs, and better luck next time I suppose.
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,521
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http://www.tworags.com/index.php?ACT...odo=view&ID=84
(bottom)
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Robb
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07-09-2008, 06:58 PM
Post subject: Re: What is the probability of this happening
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#4 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,072
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LuckySlevin
But this time though I had Ace King, and the chip leader still beat me with 9-9. By this time there was only us two left in the hand everyone else had folded.
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The simplest way to analyze your all-ins is to use Poker Stove: Link. It's a free download. The actual mathematics involved is not complicated, but very involved, because you have account for the times your AK improves but villain hits his set, and also when you improve to a straight but he hits the boat, etc. And partitioning all of the outcome sets to insure no double counting is a bitch.
Given the logjam of arithmetic required vs. the ease of using PokerStove, even us math geeks turn to the stove. And there are charts you can memorize or keep on your desk for reference until you learn them, as was suggested by dozer.
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LuckySlevin
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Live Poker Room
Posts: 1,050
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Poker Stove is a great help, I was amazed to find that A8o has a better chance than QJo pre flop. Also to see that a very low pair like 2-2 against something like AKo or AKs has a better chance of winning.
I doubted this because whenever I'm against someone with an Ace or King it seems to come up in the flop, but... After reading the post about selective memory I've realised this is probabally just because I'm not seeing / remembering the hands when I've been up against someone with an Ace/king and they've lost!
Very useful every day I'm learning new things. Thanks 
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WillburForce
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Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: SW London
Posts: 516
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I luv these type of posts. People learning the game, and keen to learn (as a pose to moaning about life being rigged and shit).
Hopefully LuckySlevin, in about 2 years time, someone will bump this post when you've just won your fisrt $100k pot playing the nosebleeds...
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LuckySlevin
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Live Poker Room
Posts: 1,050
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haha yes that would be great
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Thunder
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: England
Posts: 561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LuckySlevin
Also to see that a very low pair like 2-2 against something like AKo or AKs has a better chance of winning.
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As far as I know, 22 is the only pp that is not a favourite against AK.
Have to agree about Ax seeming to hi the flop so hard that even AJ is a can be successfully played like AA. From my experience of internet poker, I'd put AK at a 65/35 favourite over a lower pp and I never see such ace heavy flops when playing live. Not saying it's rigged by any stretch - and there's plenty of people who are raking it in - just making an observation.
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LuckySlevin
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07-10-2008, 01:37 PM
Post subject: 22 vs AK
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#9 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Live Poker Room
Posts: 1,050
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Thanks thunder - this is what poker stove says - is there another way to calculate this so that the 22's are not favourite? I'd like to know if there is, because so far Poker Stove is the only method I'm using to compare hands.
Also what does PP stand for.
Thanks!
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
Posts: 2,184
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by WillburForce
I luv these type of posts. People learning the game, and keen to learn (as a pose to moaning about life being rigged and shit).
Hopefully LuckySlevin, in about 2 years time, someone will bump this post when you've just won your fisrt $100k pot playing the nosebleeds...
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LS, can I borrow some money when you make this 100k?
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LOL OPERATIONS
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,072
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Lucky,
Try this with the stove. Hero has TT against a villain we know opens 12% of his range for a raise. Hero calls from the BB.
To analyze the situation, open the stove, type in Hero's TT, and then type 10% in villain's field, and hit ENTER. The Stove automatically chooses the range: 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo. The equity Hero has is 52.227%.
This is a cool feature that, when you get fast enough, allows you to use the Stove alongside a poker table in a tourney or cash game. Most people use it while reviewing HH's in PT or HM, to check on equity. After using it a lot for a couple of months, most of us know the important combinations and quit using it much, except for tricky ones.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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I'm glad your continuing to learn LS. 22 is a favorite against AKs/AKo preflop however you put it in PokerStove. However, it is still a coinflip. Which we aren't always too happy about taking. And keep in mind this is calculated preflop. Depending on the board the percentages chance (ldo). So don't get in the mindset that I have 22 and it was a favorite over any non-pair hand preflop so I must still be good.
And PP = pocketpair.
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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i haven't use stove yet. I should...
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xptboy
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Straight
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Brussels
Posts: 187
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here's an interestig fact!!!
if two player have AK and 1 has JJ the player with JJ increases his chance of winning to nearly 2/3
but if 1 has AQ, another has AK and another JJ, the JJ are still favorite, but will still end up losing over 1/2 of the time
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Thunder
[Have to agree about Ax seeming to hi the flop so hard that even AJ is a can be successfully played like AA. From my experience of internet poker, I'd put AK at a 65/35 favourite over a lower pp and I never see such ace heavy flops when playing live. Not saying it's rigged by any stretch - and there's plenty of people who are raking it in - just making an observation.
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I'd take the pp anyday over AK.. its much better to have a made hand preflop. If you chose to have AK-AJ over pps and you knew what you and your opponent held everytime, that would be very negative EV.
The same with having big draws after the flop.. run pokerstove any way to Sunday and you will almost always have more pot equity with the made hand than the drawing hand.. and AK-AJ are drawing hands.
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lolzzz_321
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NO YOU
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: My ice is polarized
Posts: 2,797
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It's 50/50 either you flop a pair or you don't, simple.
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Thunder
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: England
Posts: 561
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Lucky, 22 isn't a favourite. It's 50/50 as your figures show. SO no need to adjust anything. All other pps are gonna be a 55/45 fave.
Outlaw, of course pps are EV+ over ace high. Goes without saying.
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,072
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Thunder
Outlaw, of course pps are EV+ over ace high. Goes without saying.
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Except when I have the pp - then the Axx flop seems inevitable, right, Thunder?? 
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Thunder
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: England
Posts: 561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robb
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Thunder
Outlaw, of course pps are EV+ over ace high. Goes without saying.
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Except when I have the pp - then the Axx flop seems inevitable, right, Thunder?? |
You know it's true!
Swiftly followed by the runner runner outdraw.
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