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Johnnyqt25
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08-13-2005, 11:52 PM
Post subject: What are the odds of getting the flush?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5
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What are the odds that someone is gonna get the flush if the board has 2 of same suit after flop? I am always scared to bet or call a high raise when this happens even if i have highest pair. And if I have 2 of the same suit in my hand, is it profitable for me to call the high raise and chase for the flush?
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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Chance you will be dealt two cards of the same suit: 24%
Once you have suited cards, chance that you will flop two more of the same suit: 11%
When you have 4 cards of same suit, chance you will get flush by river: 39%
Generally, without getting too complicated, chasing flushes is only profitable when the opponent is betting less than 39% of the pot. Learn about pot odds on the FTR main site.
You really just need experience to know when someone else is chasing a flush. I don't know any odds on it. If you think that someone is chasing a flush and you have TPGK always bet the pot at them to give them bad odds to call.
May I also suggest Johnny that you should spend time reading the beginners section of FTR (and all other sections), starting with all the stickys, from front to back and perhaps get yourself a good poker strategy book. It is a brilliant way to rapidly jumpstart your poker skills. Check the main FTR page for book reviews.
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aokrongly
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 863
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Here's a rule: TPTK, bet at least half the pot, if not the whole thing. If YOU are the one chasing, the chips in the pot and in front of other players (meaning about to go in the pot) have to be more than 4x what it will take to call AND if you hit your flush you better hit with a high hole card (like an Ace, because when you hit it you want to win) AND you don't have a reraiser behind you. If it's a multi-way pot and you're in the middle and there's a perpetual raiser to your left then you probably should fold because if he raises the pot, then what ru gonna do, call again?
Basically if SOMEONE ELSE is drawing to a flush I say they have a 1 in 3 chance of hitting it and bet 1/2 the pot to get them to make a bad call. Guess what? 1 in 3 times they HIT IT. What ru going to do when that happens? Whatever you do, don't pay them off with additional bets or calling their bets. Why would you? If every indication is that they were drawing, AND THE DRAW HITS, then DON'T PAY THEM OFF. Fold. That's how you make a profit on the 2/3 times they don't hit. By not paying them the 1/3 they do.
Good luck.
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Irisheyes
Chance you will be dealt two cards of the same suit: 24%
Once you have suited cards, chance that you will flop two more of the same suit: 11%
When you have 4 cards of same suit, chance you will get flush by river: 39%
Generally, without getting too complicated, chasing flushes is only profitable when the opponent is betting less than 39% of the pot. Learn about pot odds on the FTR main site.
You really just need experience to know when someone else is chasing a flush. I don't know any odds on it. If you think that someone is chasing a flush and you have TPGK always bet the pot at them to give them bad odds to call.
May I also suggest Johnny that you should spend time reading the beginners section of FTR (and all other sections), starting with all the stickys, from front to back and perhaps get yourself a good poker strategy book. It is a brilliant way to rapidly jumpstart your poker skills. Check the main FTR page for book reviews. |
Oh yea, and listen to aokrongly.
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Laeelin
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,137
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Quote:
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What are the odds that someone is gonna get the flush if the board has 2 of same suit after flop?
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Also, dont be to worried about the odds of what they have, that can get in the way of seeing what they really have.
It's really easy to start thinking that well there is "only" a 5% chance that they have the flush as well, and to overvalue your baby flush or whatever.
It's good to know the odds, but dont use just that as reason to call/push when it should be an easy fold.
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TLR
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 5,007
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One small correction:
Chances of hitting the flush by the river with 2 outs on the board ~35%
Calculation 1-(38/47)*(37/46)
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