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gymcar
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09-07-2007, 02:21 AM
Post subject: What are the odds? Did I get cheated?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Richardson, TX
Posts: 3
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I was playing on a table and a big rucku took place prior to the hand. Somehow a casino employee that was collecting the chip boxes managed to knock over the stack of player number 2. Player 2 stands up and makes a big scene about it. Eventually the staff came over and picked the chips up off the floor.
Then the hands were dealt. I was BB. I got J7 of hearts and didn't think twice about the commotion. Two people limped in. I checked. The flop comes A24 all hearts. So I have a flopped flush.
I'm in first position and I bet 30 at the 5/10 game. The next hand raises 60 and the button calls the 90 bet. I then go all in and both players call.
We all turn over flushes. The turn is another heart followed by a spade on the river.
The button had the king of hearts and won the hand. He had won an earlier all in hand when he called pockets queens with on an A8 off.
Does this sound suspicious? What are the odds of three people hitting flushes on the flop?
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sarbox68
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
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Lemme see.... 13 suited cards... 3 people w/ 2 is 6... 4 on the board with the flop and the turn... so 10 out of 13 from a 52 card deck...
x = 3 * 2 + 4 - (y * 2) where y is the number of players at the table / z% probability of ruckus.........
awww hell.... dude, sounds like you just had a bad beat. I can't do this math but I can tell u I have run up against flush over flush at least a dozen times in the past 10K hands I've played. So arbitrarily determining whether the odds exist for three to have flushes, I'd say small but obviously possible...
Heck... what are the odds for a Royal Flush... but they happen. Of course in 52,000 online hands I haven't seen one yet, but my chart o' poker hand rankings tell me they're possible! 
It sucks, but you'll make it back over the long haul...
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bigslikk
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 445
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Well let's see if I can calculate the odds:
You each have two hearts. That means 3 * 2 = 6 hearts are out. There are 13 hearts, so 13 - 6 = 7 hearts left in the deck.
Chances of each flop card being a heart, multiplied together:
7 hearts / (52 cards - the 6 hole cards = 46 left in the deck)
7/46 * 6/45 * 5/44 = ~0.2 percent.
Note: NOT 2 percent. 2 TENTHS of a percent. So... it's fated to happen twice in a thousand trials. Once in 500 such scenarios (this is given all three of you have suited hole cards of the same suit, and no other information is known).
It seems like just a freak incident, though, not a con. What do you think happened? That the dealer was distracted enough to let a rigged deck get placed on the table? And that the new deck was left unshuffled and uncut with no protest by anyone at the table? Odds are, it's all in your head. My condolences on having the third-to-nuts (o wait fourth).
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donkbee
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WELP
Join Date: May 2005
Location: so close but so far
Posts: 3,604
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hmm doesn't quite qualify for bad beats forum, so i guess it can stay here 
of course you didn't get cheated. it's mathematically possible, it happened, and you unfortunately lost. i'm sure you'll see some equally crazy things in the future, too.
welcome to ftr.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.
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Dashi
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 46
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Don't want to sound like a troll here, but honestly with that kind of action with a flush flop, did you really expect to have the best hand? Not faulting your play at all, and while it is rare to have 3 people have a flush, not totally unheard of.
As for the odds of you being cheated, I would say precisely zero. Worked at casino's before and something like this is would require the total and complete ignorance of security in the casino as well as the dealer at the casino being an inside man. If I was a dealer and wanted to make money stealing from my employer, there are far less involved and far more profitable ways to go about it.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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improbable does not equal impossible. plus it's not even that improbable.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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pgil
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,103
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ive encountered three people with a flopped flush, so it does happen, and has happened to more than just you
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"If you can't say f*ck, you can't say f*ck the government" - Lenny Bruce
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gymcar
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09-07-2007, 12:13 PM
Post subject: Add another stat
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#8 (permalink)
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Richardson, TX
Posts: 3
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OK. So there is a .02 percent chance of three hearts hitting the board. That is pretty minute. But what are the odds that the other hearts out are split 2 2 and 2 in the hands of three players? This is assuming that nobody else had a heart. I would think that would be much less than the .02 percent.
Taking that in mind, what are the odds of this happening? I understand better when figures are more like, 1 in 100,000.
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gymcar
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09-07-2007, 12:21 PM
Post subject: In retropsect you are correct!
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#9 (permalink)
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Richardson, TX
Posts: 3
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It seemed that when I bet and the other person raised that they were probably on a heart draw or they had a paired ace with a decent kicker. There was also a straight draw on the board. So there were a lot of options. As it turned out the person that raised me only had a ten high flush. The person that I figured as the possible cheater had the k and smooth called. I would have done the same with his hand.
With the ace of hearts on the board I figured the odds of someone else flopping a flush with the K or Q kicker were slim. I feared that they might be shopping for the extra heart to complete their flush, therefore, I went all in to run off the possible flush hunters. Remember, only two cards existed that would beat my hand and they had to already be paired with another heart. Otherwise the person would have only had less than a 24% chance of hitting another heart.
How would you have played any different?
Don't want to sound like a troll here, but honestly with that kind of action with a flush flop, did you really expect to have the best hand? Not faulting your play at all, and while it is rare to have 3 people have a flush, not totally unheard of.
As for the odds of you being cheated, I would say precisely zero. Worked at casino's before and something like this is would require the total and complete ignorance of security in the casino as well as the dealer at the casino being an inside man. If I was a dealer and wanted to make money stealing from my employer, there are far less involved and far more profitable ways to go about it.[/quote]
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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this just happened to me last week. i had 78s, someone had KJs, and someone had Axs. Ive seen it 2 or 3 times this year over 175k hands.
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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it doesn't matter what the odds are if it's already happened
that's like saying omfg what are the odds that i would be typing this post word-for-word like i am right now
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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sarbox68
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
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Ummm.... 1 post / 170 words * (559 posts / 80 wpp) ^ 26 letters in the .....
of f- it.... I can't do that math either.......
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Hermann the Lombard
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09-07-2007, 03:45 PM
Post subject: Re: Add another stat
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#13 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gymcar
OK. So there is a .02 percent chance of three hearts hitting the board. That is pretty minute. But what are the odds that the other hearts out are split 2 2 and 2 in the hands of three players? This is assuming that nobody else had a heart. I would think that would be much less than the .02 percent.
Taking that in mind, what are the odds of this happening? I understand better when figures are more like, 1 in 100,000.
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Even then, if you play 100,000 hands you're likely to see it (as Bode did repeatedly in 175,000 hands). A finite chance means that it WILL happen from time to time. Obviously the odds are a lot higher by the river and I've seen flush over flush a couple of times in the last 500 hands, including a triple last night...along with a board of AAAAK with grumbling among those who folded!
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Dashi
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 46
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I don't fault your play one bit. Just saying it's a situation where you shouldn't have been surprised to see flushes. The fact that they beat you was unfortunate.
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Aces
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 832
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sarbox68
Ummm.... 1 post / 170 words * (559 posts / 80 wpp) ^ 26 letters in the .....
of f- it.... I can't do that math either.......
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lol...well tuned sarcasmometer...
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by martindcx1e
improbable does not equal impossible.
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sarbox68
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
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Difference between improbably and impossible...
Improbable - you seeing 3 flushes
Impossible - me turning $200 into $3,000 like Ash over here.....
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I Like Pie
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Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 399
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I gotta say that I've never seen 3 flopped flushes before and I've had about 8-10 Royal Flushes in my poker "career".
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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a lot of people always limp Axs, suited connectors and even Kxs when they get the chance. So flushes happen. Quite a lot. And i've been on both ends of the flopped flush pain a few times in less than 100k hands. Happens. It's hard to fold weak flushes, sometimes it makes sense though. I'm stoked cos I folded AA on the flop today, and it was a good call...
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lolzzz_321
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NO YOU
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: My ice is polarized
Posts: 2,797
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Post deleted by courtiebee
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Jack Sawyer
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Old School
Posts: 2,535
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pgil
ive encountered three people with a flopped flush, so it does happen, and has happened to more than just you
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at very loose tables, this happens all the time
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My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...
Quote:
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VHS is like a book and a book is like a stack of kindles.
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Hey, I'm in a movie!
http://youtu.be/lGdnIrRKDTI
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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Was it a professional dealer?
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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yes you got cheated. contact a lawyer asap. please keep us posted on this situation.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sarbox68
Difference between improbably and impossible...
Improbable - you seeing 3 flushes
Impossible - me turning $200 into $3,000 like Ash over here.....
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It's not impossible, I've turned -$200 into $3000 and more.
P.S. I've seen set over set over set over set in a tournament before, so I win.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sarbox68
Difference between improbably and impossible...
Improbable - you seeing 3 flushes
Impossible - me turning $200 into $3,000 like Ash over here.....
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lol, it took a while, believe me.
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