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mimmons775
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04-26-2005, 12:50 AM
Post subject: what are the chances...
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 92
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can someone please calculate the odds of losing with pocket AA 4 times in a row in a night, because thats what happnened to me tonight(3 times all in preflop and once all in on the flop)and its gettin on my nerves. i dont even know if i want it anymore.
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"I guess if there wasnt luck involved id win everyone."
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ekillian
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 235
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Depends how you play them and how many people saw the flop and how many people were in the hand when it went to showdown.
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mimmons775
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 92
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ok ill explain how the hands went. 3 times i got my aces all in preflop, once against JJ and twice against KK. All 3 times they hit a set. then i had AA and went to the flop which came K25. the guy bets and i push. He calls with KQ and turns a Q. So basically i would like to know whats the probability of that happening to someone.
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"I guess if there wasnt luck involved id win everyone."
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Superior
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 37
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(Chance to flop a set with a PP for three hands) [1/7 * 1/7 * 1/7] * [5/49] (chance that on the turn he gets a better hand than you) = 5/16807
If these hands were consecutive, it would happen approximately once every 3361 hands.
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ekillian
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 235
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1 in 3361? Damn you're lucky! 
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Cocco_Bill
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 1,254
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Superior
(Chance to flop a set with a PP for three hands) [1/7 * 1/7 * 1/7] * [5/49] (chance that on the turn he gets a better hand than you) = 5/16807
If these hands were consecutive, it would happen approximately once every 3361 hands.
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That is simply incorrect.
What you need is to guess the average edge for AA against a pre flop calling hand(does not have to be a PP) this would be approximately 80% to win or 20% to lose by the river. Assuming that you are heads up, chances that you will lose 4 times in a row is simply 1/5*1/5*1/5*1/5 = 0,0016 or 1/625.
In the case where his opponent had KQ and the turn gave him 2 pair, well he was drawing to 5 outs so there was about 10% chance to improve to a hand beating AA on the turn.
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stewartkev
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Scotland
Posts: 99
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Can sympathise with you. After destroying the tables on Royal Vegas 2 nights ago (100BB/100!), this happened in the hour I spent 2-tabling last night:
1. 1st hand when I opened up my second table...AA. Try to raise it up big then realise I opened a PL table by accident...DOH! Bet the pot, get 2 callers to flop. Rags, but 2 diamonds. Bet the pot, 2 callers. Turn A, giving me the set. Bet the pot, 1 caller. River diamond....lose to a flush.
2. Ready to call it quits when I get AA (in a NL game this time). Bet 10 x big blind and get 2 callers. One is in on every hand, no matter what, other has just joined table. Flop comes K 9 2 rainbow. Player I have no read on bets pot, I go AI over the top of him, other guy folds and he calls. He flips over K9 for two pair and hits another K on the river to give a FH.
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nova_couple32
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 8
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I played in an online tourney and i was in 100th place out of 200 left (6000 people started). I had over 100k and so did one other guy at the table, everyone else had between 10k and 20k. I was next to last to bet and one guy had already gone all in, the other guy (with 100k called), I had AK suited and reraised another 10k thinking the guy would fold so I could just go heads up ( I felt the short stacked guy was desperate and I was right) however the other guy went all in. I called (not sure I would ever do that again having as many chips as I had) and the short stack had Ace rag, the other had JJ and of course I lost. I don't care about losing after all it was a freeroll, but was that the right way to approach that hand?
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ekillian
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 235
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nova_couple32
I played in an online tourney and i was in 100th place out of 200 left (6000 people started). I had over 100k and so did one other guy at the table, everyone else had between 10k and 20k. I was next to last to bet and one guy had already gone all in, the other guy (with 100k called), I had AK suited and reraised another 10k thinking the guy would fold so I could just go heads up ( I felt the short stacked guy was desperate and I was right) however the other guy went all in. I called (not sure I would ever do that again having as many chips as I had) and the short stack had Ace rag, the other had JJ and of course I lost. I don't care about losing after all it was a freeroll, but was that the right way to approach that hand?
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If you feel you can outplay the other players I don't think you need to race. Not against this guy I mean. You can bully everyone but him so I don't get tangled in a race here. I'm not sure I even reraise at all. You've got a drawing hand remember? And once you did reraise you could've let it go and you would've still had a lot of people outchipped. However, if you're not a very good player and you've raced to get this far then I'm fine with you pushing here. Even though you've got your tables chipstacks dominated, you're still just in the middle of the pack. So I think they answer depends on your confidence in yourself.
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BoondockSaint
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Indiana
Posts: 1,844
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What are the chances of this. And the bottom right table wasnt even mine I was watchin a friend there.
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ekillian
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 235
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Wow
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