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Weird Spot...Call or Fold? (Long Post)

  
 
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Whisperz
Old 01-02-2008, 02:28 AM     Post subject: Weird Spot...Call or Fold? (Long Post) #1 (permalink)  

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$1/$2 NL game

Villian is a tight player who I have heard mentioned as the best that our group of 40 players plays with consistently. Other then that I have never seen him play.

I sit in for $150 (the avg stack) after about a 1/2 hour I'm down to $102. I decide I'm going to tighten up. I finally pick up a hand... this isn't the hand in question but this is the only experience I have with the villian.

I pick up KK on the button and after 5 limps make it $12 (avg raise is about $10). I get 4 callers. The SB, the BB and the villain in MP. Flop comes 10-2-3 Rainbow. SB leads for $10...flat called by BB & Villian. I shove for $90. Fold, Fold, then I get called by villian and he flips 4-5...WTF??? Miss, Miss. The "best player we play with hadn't impressed me". BTW his stack was at about $300-$400.

Now about 10 min later I'm in the Cutoff with AhQs. I get the villian limping before me along with UTG. I raise it to $12 again. Call, Call.

Flop- Qc 8h 3h

Check, Check, I fire $20. UTG calls but thats has no effect on the hand because the UTG player I know would raise if he had me beat or if he had some insane draw or something. He gets the money in ASAP. I think the villian knows that here as well. Villian makes it $60 more. Now its on me. I have about $200 left. I'm not concerned with the guy behind me. I don't want to flat call. I'm either all-in or folding. His range is all of the following.... KhQh, JJ, 10-10, 99, 88, QhJh, 33, AQ, MAYBE Qh 10h, Jh 10h.

I would say his set chance is about 35% of the time he has a set. But like I said I've seen him play 1 hand where I saw his cards.

Shove or Fold???
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BankItDrew
Old 01-02-2008, 04:20 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 If you think that villain will play consistantly enough between this hand and the 45 call in the other: he is not drawing, like the 45 hand, because he played this much differently.

There is nothing more intimidating than the line villain pulls here IMO.

I think that at least 99% of the time villain has a better hand that AQ. Check raising heads up on the flop is one thing, but check raising the hero in position while being the middle man, is another.

If villain does this often, make a note and exploit.


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Rondavu
Old 01-02-2008, 11:26 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Personally, I would call. Not saying it's correct, but it feels right. The turn plays a whole lot easier. I'm just not getting caught up in a protection against draw mode with a semi strong hand against a mysterious range.
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Ash256
Old 01-02-2008, 12:17 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
His range is all of the following.... KhQh, JJ, 10-10, 99, 88, QhJh, 33, AQ, MAYBE Qh 10h, Jh 10h.
You have his range so far, use pokerstove to find out your equity vs. this range.


His range for calling a push is probably different though and you need to bare that in mind.
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pankfish
Old 01-03-2008, 01:20 AM #5 (permalink)  
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That first hand he had to call $80~ into a pot of $185~, not too awful with an oesd.
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Go_Indy
Old 01-03-2008, 02:38 PM #6 (permalink)  

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Go_Indy
I was thinking same thing. Not that I am any great player, but...

When you shoved the first hand, did you flip up your cards first before the other guy called? Of course not....so he has to speculate on what you had. Now, obviously, I don't know you from Adam, but I have a feeling AK might have been played the same way. Of course, what really matters, was what HE thought you might have. Remember, he doesn't know you, either.

Onto the next hand.

The interesting thing here is, the only thing we have to work with is you calling him tight, and the one hand history. If I had to speculate what people had as an observer just from watching the action, (And I realize you TOLD us what you had), I would assume you had AK/AQ/KQ, and had hit the Q. I would presume UTG had 2 hearts, or maybe even something like J10 with 1 heart, and I would presume the raiser had an overpair/set/or not a darn thing. I'd lean towards overpair, though.

I guess I'd fold.
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