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dranger7070

07-01-2010, 08:55 AM Post subject: Want to increase your winrate a fuckton?

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dranger7070 has a little shameless behaviour in the past

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dranger7070

07-01-2010, 09:03 AM

#2 (permalink)

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Villain is retarded ass 45/5 station fish. Should have bet more on flop and turn, but w/e, point is made.

weaktight | Hand | QTo - $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem

dranger7070

07-01-2010, 09:14 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Villain is 33/17 over 14 hands or some shit. Turn is a pretty clear bet/fold, but I run good and bink ldfo. :trollface:

weaktight | Hand | JJ - $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem

dranger7070

07-01-2010, 09:21 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Villain is 55/10 over 99, pretty aggro postflop, but I can't really see him jamming two pair here on the river. Unless he has like KJ somehow, or J6, K6, etc. But its like this is so obviously a flush 75%+ its not even funny.

Looking at this hand now, I'm not even sure if I like my bet anyways, but its 10nl, he's a fish, he can find the call button with worse. Easiest river fold ever though once I bet.

weaktight | Hand | 55 - $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem

Edit: just realized I could have put all these hands in one post, but I'm a retard. W/e I'll start now.

Villain is 5/4 over 122 hands, hasn't c/r yet in that sample. This should be a pretty simple b/f since I expect him to c/c with pretty much all his PPs, and c/r his sets. He's never doing this with like AdKd or something, he's probably just set mining d-bag and ofc I pay him off.

At the time I was thinking, 'no fucking way he just c/jam's a set here.' It's not fun to be proven wrong lol.

weaktight | Hand | QQ - $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem

Ok feeshus, your turn.

Keith

07-01-2010, 01:20 PM

#5 (permalink)

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last hand villain was the button though so he couldnt check raise or check jam. 5/4 would have me thinking he could have KK AdKd or sets and do i really want to get money in.

Stacks

07-01-2010, 03:08 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Well dranger, you have the betting part down. Seems you need work on the folding part though =D.

dranger7070

07-01-2010, 03:19 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Ah balls, you're right Keith, my replayer showed him as the SB for some reason. O well, same shit. :P

kfaess

07-01-2010, 03:42 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Man that post by ISF is the nuts, thanks doctor.

In that last hand I think he is more likely to jam a FD than he is to jam like JJ, TT. Therefore, pretty much any hand he could be doing this with either has you crushed or has good equity against you unless he's somehow spazzing. But yea, I think u know that

surviva316

07-01-2010, 06:14 PM

#9 (permalink)

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wtf at considering not betting the river in the hand with the set. he'll call with like TT there.

the QTo hand the vbet is so thin that i wouldn't do it if villain is EVER bluff raising. most villains wouldn't, though, so the bet is fine.

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dranger7070

07-01-2010, 06:21 PM

#10 (permalink)

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I'm scared money ldo.

Yea I wouldn't bet the QTo hand vs a reg obv. The guy was just such a station he's probably legit calling Tx there.

kmind

07-01-2010, 09:18 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Well dranger, you have the betting part down. Seems you need work on the folding part though =D.

Yessuh

Hands look good. I've created so much more value since b/f more.

dranger7070

07-01-2010, 09:21 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Hoping some you guys could throw up hands of your own. I'll keep posting mine as I come across decent examples.

daven

07-01-2010, 09:29 PM

#13 (permalink)

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villain is reg who won't be bluff raising turn or river. He only sometimes has a jack here, may call down AK
weaktight | Hand | TT - $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

amifat

07-01-2010, 10:47 PM

#14 (permalink)

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I swear you where just going to post a one liner "run like me" or some stupid shit like that. Iv read this a few times. I need to learn the fold part better :P

♦♣♥♠ "Common sence isn't really that common" ♦♣♥♠

Penneywize

07-01-2010, 11:42 PM

#15 (permalink)

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Penneywize will become famous soon enough

In b4 newfish writes a 1-liner to increase his postcount

seriously though dranger, nice find. I'll be adding this to the pile of material I have to go through in order to figure out how to improve from a shit 5.05BB/100 at 5nl.

Imthenewfish

07-02-2010, 01:10 AM

#16 (permalink)

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Thats not going to stop me from writing another 1-liner

kfaess

07-02-2010, 02:50 AM

#17 (permalink)

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Nice daven.

I like it as long as we know he doesn't have a J super often, otherwise we may just be valuetowning ourselves.

Outlaw

07-03-2010, 06:49 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Bet folding is usually the best play unless the bulk of his range was draws, air, or a hand we beat that can't call a bet.. better to give them a chance to bluff in these instances.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

UTG ($61.35)
UTG+1 ($29.35)
MP1 ($34.60)
MP2 ($25)
CO ($25)
Button ($25)
Hero (SB) ($44.65)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q

, Q

2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero bets $1.25, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1

Flop: ($2.75) 9

, 3

, 4

(2 players)
Hero bets $2.60, MP1 calls $2.60

Turn: ($7.95) 8

(2 players)
Hero bets $5.20, MP1 calls $5.20

River: ($18.35) A

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $13.75, Hero calls $13.75

Total pot: $45.85 | Rake: $2.20

Results:
Hero had Q

, Q

(one pair, Queens).
MP1 had J

, 7

(high card, Ace).
Outcome: Hero won $43.65

kiwiMark

07-04-2010, 12:19 AM

#19 (permalink)

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Quote:

Bet folding is usually the best play unless the bulk of his range was draws, air, or a hand we beat

...

Imthenewfish

07-04-2010, 01:49 AM

#20 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

...

Outlaw

07-04-2010, 02:31 AM

#21 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

...

that isn't likely to call 3 barrels, sorry didn't think I needed to spell that out

EasyPoker

07-04-2010, 10:56 PM

#22 (permalink)

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Yeah, I fully co-sign ISF. I'm glad I came across that post. I begun to stop wanton calling a while back and I saw my fortunes rise.

[20:19] <Zill4> god
[20:19] <Zill4> u guys
[20:19] <Zill4> so fking hopeless
[20:19] <Zill4> and dumb

rpm

07-05-2010, 06:41 AM

#23 (permalink)

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who likes bet/folding this river? villain is a 13/6 nit who folds SB 91% and BB 78%, however he recently flatted me in BB with A8o vs my SB raise. he has also floated me with underpairs to the board in the past, however he didnt bet the turn when he did this. anyway i folded to his minraise because i thought it was the nuts and the nuts only then he claimed in chat that he had a lone 9 and thought it was going to be a split (this was with others talking about the hand, i didnt say anything). i assume he's not that dumb and is trying to act dumb in the chat (it's not like i ever call with worse than his 9 AFTER i lead the river, so he's just paying more rake/losing whenever he raises and i call). i felt his river calling range was way wider than his betting range, because he may call with two pair hands, which he is far less likely to bet. anyway. good river b/f spot?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) ($25.94)
BB ($50.42)
UTG ($24.16)
UTG+1 ($24.56)
MP1 ($9.74)
MP2 ($23.12)
MP3 ($23.57)
CO ($12.87)
Button ($28.68)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 9

, 10

7 folds, Hero bets $0.50, BB calls $0.40
Flop: ($1.18) J

, 10

, Q

(2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks
Turn: ($1.18) K

(2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50
River: ($2.18) 3

(2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, BB raises to $2.20, Hero folds
Total pot: $4.38 | Rake: $0.21

rpm

07-05-2010, 08:26 AM

#24 (permalink)

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villain here is 16/1/0 (3bet), 0% raise to cbet, 82% fold to cbet. thus he has higher pairs such as QQ+ in his turn calling range, as well as flush draws and one pair/OESD hands. i assume due to being such a passive toadfish that he only ever raises full houses and straights on this turn. b/f turn seems pretty obvious. b/fold or b/call river?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (UTG) ($26.13)
UTG+1 ($27.50)
MP1 ($22.83)
MP2 ($25.65)
CO ($25.97)
Button ($9.48)
SB ($10)
BB ($25)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with J

, J

Hero bets $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, 5 folds
Flop: ($1.15) 8

, 10

, 7

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, MP1 calls $0.80
Turn: ($2.75) 7

(2 players)
Hero bets $2.10, MP1 calls $2.10
River: ($6.95) 9

(2 players)
Hero bets $4.80, MP1 calls $4.80
Total pot: $16.55

Imthenewfish

07-05-2010, 05:13 PM

#25 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by rpm

, J

Hero bets $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, 5 folds
Flop: ($1.15) 8

, 10

, 7

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, MP1 calls $0.80
Turn: ($2.75) 7

(2 players)
Hero bets $2.10, MP1 calls $2.10
River: ($6.95) 9

(2 players)
Hero bets $4.80, MP1 calls $4.80
Total pot: $16.55

I actually like a b/c on this river

Penneywize

07-05-2010, 05:47 PM

#26 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

I actually like a b/c on this river

You'd call another 14$ on this river? Even though we need something like less than 30% here, I feel like a good portion of the time we'd be calling just to split, and that is being optimistic. I bet/fold.

I could type up some justification to this if anyone would like to see it - but I just feel given previous streets that we cant sufficiently discount full houses and better straights here often enough for it to be a bet/call.

Anyhow, newfish tends to be right like 85% of the time on these types of things

so I'd like to hear his reasoning

Imthenewfish

07-05-2010, 06:20 PM

#27 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Penneywize

so I'd like to hear his reasoning

No i didn't realize we were 250 deep so i thought we would be calling 5 to win 15 or something and getting 3 to 1, and i thought that there was leik no way we're bellow 25% equity to a raise here, but im not sure because he really might be a passive toadfish that is slowplaying us with a boat ;(. b/c just seems spewy now against *this* villain 250 deep.

kiwiMark

07-05-2010, 06:58 PM

#28 (permalink)

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I don't see QJ being in this guy's range by the river ever, fwiw, he doesn't seem the type to be calling two streets with a gutterball/overs (even if he does call one street and binks the fd I dunno if he's calling since the board paired).

That said, I don't think he's raising anything on this river but boats, but he's calling with more than enough that we beat (largely 'cause he can only have ten combos of boats) so I'm all about the bet/fold.

disclaimer: I woke up at 4:30am 'cause I'm sick and it's now almost 7am and I can't get back to sleep so I might not be showing off the best thinking atm

Penneywize

07-05-2010, 08:01 PM

#29 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

Meh I mostly agree about QJ, there are only two combos that would be plausible given villain's line (and one is much more likely than the other) - QdJd and QhJh obv. Agree on your other points.

Feel better Kiwi.

dranger7070

07-05-2010, 09:55 PM

#30 (permalink)

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Great to see some hands/discussion going on in the BC for once.

That's what I was shooting for lol.

Rpm, for your first hand, I don't really like the b/f on the river, especially since villain bets the turn for a gayish amount. Villain could easily be betting the turn with TJ/QT/KQ/KJ/KT etc and be looking for some thinnish value and hoping you think he's FOS and call down with Kx or something, and there's also the pretty good possibility of him having Ax, 9x and we lose/chop. I say check and evaluate vs his bet size. If he bets like 1/2 pot again, I cry and call since he can do it with 2 pair hoping we can call with worse. I.e. he's b/f'ing here himself a ton when we check. Anything bigger than ~$1.30 and I'm folding 100%.

2nd hand is an awesome spot to b/f vs a weak/tight station. He calls with worse always, and only raises when we're beat with a boat and possibly when we chop, but who cares about chopping? He can't really get 6x or QJ to the river so those are w/e. I like your river sizing a lot too.

rpm

07-09-2010, 08:48 AM

#31 (permalink)

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cool thread bro. villain here is 43/9 over something like 60. showed down T7s

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($11.27)
SB ($20.33)
BB ($29.12)
UTG ($11.46)
UTG+1 ($21.80)
MP1 ($24.63)
MP2 ($25)
Hero (CO) ($25.39)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K

, Q

2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.60, 3 folds, MP1 calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.51) Q

, 9

, 8

(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.20, MP1 calls $1.20
Turn: ($3.91) 7

(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $3.20, MP1 calls $3.20
River: ($10.31) A

(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks
Total pot: $10.31 | Rake: $0.50

rpm

07-09-2010, 08:50 AM

#32 (permalink)

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more on the flop is obviously better because his range is weak and he most likely loves to check/call. i am beginning to better understand fnord's comments in the thread about beating the shit out of loose/passives. nice thread

dranger7070

07-09-2010, 12:21 PM

#33 (permalink)

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Yea, you can easily bet pot, or 1.40 or w/e since he's calling with soso many draws, pair + draws, etc. Turn sizing is good. River check back is fine, but you could bet like 4.50 or something gay and get him to call with some random bullshit a lot, and he'll let you know when we're beat. I don't really expect him to bluff raise all that often, and the only Ax he has in his range is A8 and A9, MAYBE A7. Unless he has the Ad with whatever other card he wanted to call down with, but meh. That's why thin value is fun.

dranger7070

07-24-2010, 04:22 PM

#34 (permalink)

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weaktight | Hand | 92s - $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem

lol bump

villain is 67/14 over 32 hands, no relevant history

StarGrinder

07-24-2010, 04:32 PM

#35 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dranger7070

weaktight | Hand | 92s - $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem

Goes to show there still are retards out there post-UIGEA

Icanhastreebet

07-24-2010, 10:26 PM

#36 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by StarGrinder

Goes to show there still are retards out there post-UIGEA

daven

07-25-2010, 02:53 AM

#37 (permalink)

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Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($50)
MP2 ($57.50)
CO ($113.80)
Button ($63.75)
SB ($49.50)
BB ($73.85)
UTG ($50)
Hero (UTG+1) ($51.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K

, A

1 fold, Hero bets $1.75, 3 folds, Button calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.25) A

, 4

(2 players)
Hero bets $3, Button calls $3

Turn: ($10.25) 9

(2 players)
Hero bets $7,

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

tomato paste carnage

07-25-2010, 03:00 AM

#38 (permalink)

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Was there supposed to be more to that hand, daven?

Tilt is poker cancer. You catch it, you die.

daven

07-25-2010, 03:07 AM

#39 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by tomato paste carnage

Was there supposed to be more to that hand, daven?

nope

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

philly and the phanatics

07-25-2010, 03:12 AM

#40 (permalink)

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philly and the phanatics is a jewel in the rough

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomato paste carnage

Was there supposed to be more to that hand, daven?

read the op...hes BET/FOLDING lol

NightGizmo

07-25-2010, 04:21 AM

#41 (permalink)

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Daven -- do you check or bet the river if he calls the turn?

dranger7070

07-25-2010, 05:35 AM

#42 (permalink)

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B/f turn, b/f river

daven

07-25-2010, 08:52 AM

#43 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NightGizmo

Daven -- do you check or bet the river if he calls the turn?

fair question.
1 - i'm betting flop and turn for value = I think I am ahead of the majority of his calling range.
2 - the hands that call that I'm ahead of are basically Ax hands (no draws on this board), so A6-AQ, and maybe a small amount of 88-QQ
3 - the hands i'm ahead of have at most 3 outs on the river
4 - the question I'm asking on the river is how to best extract value from the hands that I'm ahead of
5 - so, are AT/QQ betting river when checked to more often than calling a river bet? so, should I bet or check for value vs the hands I'm ahead of?

vs some villains this could be a snap c-call on the turn cos he's folding all his float range to a barrel but will bet his entire range when checked to. If I'm snap check-calling this type of player, should i be considering c-raising?
anyway, that doesn't apply to this guy tho (reads are gold, right?), so I'm in bet-fold land (he isn't gonna bluff me here either)

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

dranger7070

07-30-2010, 01:26 PM

#44 (permalink)

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Ok so, this is a hand that rpm posted in his blog and its pretty key in showing how much bet/folding can/will affect your winrate for those of you morans who think I'm just shitting you, I'll show you some numbers.

weaktight | Hand | KK - $0.05/$0.10 Ante $0.02 No Limit Holdem

Villain in question is 33/0 over 3 hands, so clearly we have zero reads other than he coldcalled a minraise in EP and a 3bet OOP.

On to the analysis:

Our premise is, we bet $10 with the intention of folding to a c/r since we assume villain is never bluffing when he c/r.

{AcKc, AQ, KQ, Ac9c, Ac7c, QJs, 88, Ac2c, Ac3c, 9cTc, TcJc} - range on river

Note: I pick and chose the flush combos at random, thats why there's hands like Ac2c and not AcJc, it's irrelevant WHICH hands he has, as long as the number of combos is about right.

AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, Ac9c, Ac7c, QcJc, Ac2c, Ac3c, 9cTc, TcJc, 88 and for shit and gigs lets give him 57s for 4 more combos that we lose to = 17 combos that c/r that we lose to

AQ = 11 combos we beat (we lose to AcQc)
KQ = 5 combos we beat (we lose to KcQc)
QJs = 3 combos we beat (we lose to QcJc)

Total of 17 + 19 = 36 total combos on the river

17/36 = 47% of the time, we bet $10 and he c/r and we fold

19/36 = 53% of the time we bet $10 and he calls and we net $27

($27*.53) - (-$10*.47) = $14.31 - $4.70 = $9.61

The key thing to take away from that $9.61 is that we are losing 96bb (almost a full BI) every time we fail to make this bet. EVERY TIME!!!!! Do you micro bonks realize that a situation exactly like this (maybe not for this many bb, but similar situation) come up WAAAYYYY more often than 1 time every 1,000 hands?

Say this situation only did pop up once every 1,000 hands. Also assume we are a breakeven player when we don't bet this river (we never bet/fold this river in this scenario). All of a sudden thanks to Dranger, you learn the wonderful world of bet/fold and you start to bet/fold in this spot like you should, that takes you from a breakeven/slightly losing player to all of a sudden beating the stake for 10bb/100.

Funny how that works, isn't it?

sk8r_daniel

07-30-2010, 03:19 PM

#45 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2006

Posts: 330

Trust me...this works...really well. Fish call way too much. Just don't level yourself and think:

I have been betting aLOT
The Passive fishtards at microstakes must think I'm CRAZY
Oh he is raising the TURN! He must be reacting to my crazy betting style.

No...they aren't. Passive fish are passive fish and when they raise you they have the nuts...FOLD.

rpm

07-31-2010, 05:51 AM

#46 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,039

nice post mr anger. i'm happy to be made an example of if my reward is learning to crush these microsuckers.

Outlaw

08-01-2010, 06:22 AM

#47 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Nov 2007

Posts: 1,033

A lot of this is read dependent but I agree that, in general, bet-folding is a good strategy. In many cases we also need to watch for boards where draws make up a large percentage of the villains range. Here, a lot of times the best way to get max value is to check and let aggressive opponents bluff their missed draws. This also helps balance our range so that we are not always smashing the river with our value range. As we move up, savvy players will pick up on your mega river aggression and start bluff-raising scare cards after floating.

But I like the theme of this thread.. when unsure what to do, bet.. its much better than puss-checking and whining about your bad luck.

Imthenewfish

08-05-2010, 05:09 AM

#48 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2010

Location: sites im allowed to play on

Posts: 945

bump, gonna try to start posting some hands where i should be b/f'ing
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($11.77)
Button ($10.06)
SB ($7.39)
BB ($12.17)
UTG ($10.25)
UTG+1 ($10)
Hero (MP1) ($21.35)
MP2 ($8)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A

, J

3 folds, Hero bets $0.40, 4 folds, SB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) 10

, Q

, J

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60

villain is 45/10 over 30 hands or so,pretty passive post, and won't be c/r'ing draws very often if at all here

rpm

08-05-2010, 05:35 AM

#49 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,039

holy moligans the new fish is seeking to do something constructive. as for the hand i'm not really fussed whether you check it or bet/fold. the fact you noted that he isn't likely to c/r draws is a good thing, and makes us more inclined to bet. i think i like a bet/fold here if villain has some one pair/gutter or OESD hands that we beat ie T9, T8, J9, J8 etc. also if you feel he's got any kings in his range which aren't two pair or a flopped straight (ie he calls with some of K4s-K8s pre) then i think bet/folding is great. actually yep b/f this flop for sure now i think aboot it.

rpm

08-05-2010, 05:37 AM

#50 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,039

actually he's probably c/c'ing any ace. definitely like a bet/fold here.

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