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Is this a WA/WB situation come the turn?

  
 
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loonychune
Old 02-21-2009, 07:08 PM     Post subject: Is this a WA/WB situation come the turn? #1 (permalink)  
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Villain runs about 30/8 over 100 hands. He calls lots of suited cards and usually pays to catch his draws.

Just wondering about the turn bet here. He probably folds some random Jx hand. Probably doesn't fold any Ax hand. Might continue with a flush draw at the price I give him but I still think I should have made it like $3.25 looking to check/call or check/fold the river (if this bet is for value).

That said, if this is a way-ahead/way-behind spot on the turn, i'd be better check/calling the turn and re-evaluating on the river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($10.75)
MP1 ($1.65)
Villain (MP2) ($13.45)
CO ($3.75)
Button ($1.65)
SB ($8.90)
BB ($8.35)
Hero (UTG) ($10)



Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q
Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.40, Villain calls $0.40, 2 folds, SB calls $0.35, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($2) 3, 4, J (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, 1 fold, Villain calls $1.25, 2 folds

Turn: ($4.50) A (2 players)
Hero bets $2.25, Villain calls $2.25
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Ragnar4
Old 02-21-2009, 07:40 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Yes. Bet/Fold the River IMO.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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POKEMONS
Old 02-21-2009, 08:52 PM #3 (permalink)  

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Turn bet is super standard imo.

I don't really think this is a WA/WB situation since he can have so many draws in this spot.

Betting the river seems pointless to me. I would c/c or c/f depending on how often you'll think he'll bet the river with a busted draw. Against a 30/8 I would lean to c/f.
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dev
Old 02-21-2009, 10:53 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I'd bet bigger on the flop, but given that the turn makes us want pot control it worked out. Turn is groovy, like everyone says. It's tough to check the river without some read on his post-flop aggression. Being loose passive preflop, can we put him on floating the flop? If so then over half of the deck is a scare card for us. Maybe check/fold 7s, 2s and bet/fold everything else.
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loonychune
Old 02-22-2009, 12:09 AM #5 (permalink)  
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In the end I put a small blocking bet out on the river, 1/3 pot. I'm probably going to have > 20% equity vs his calling range most of the time and I get to see a showdown so I kinda like bet/folding the river a bit more now.

Thanks for your responses
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POKEMONS
Old 02-22-2009, 12:37 AM #6 (permalink)  

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I really don't like bet/folding the river here.

I mean the range of hands he is calling with on the turn looks something like:

J9+, Ax, 56, 55-TT and many flush draws.

When we bet the river we are getting called most certainly by:

Any ace, any straight/flush that he makes on the river, and any random two pair hands he shows up with. Maybe we get called by a jack, but I would imagine many villains to fold Jx to a river bet. He will almost never call a river bet with 55-TT here.

At the same time, we are folding out Jx a lot of the time, and any missed draws he decided to call the turn with.

If we check, he is almost certainly checking back 55-TT and Jx hands, possibly value betting an ace, but I expect a passive player like this to check back Ax a lot of the time too.

If the river is a blank and we check and he bets, I think busted draws account for enough of his range to make check-calling profitable, but if a diamond or spade falls on the river, I'm almost always check-folding here.
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