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vs. Unknowns

  
 
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Erpel
Old 06-17-2008, 09:15 PM     Post subject: vs. Unknowns #1 (permalink)  
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In hand history threads I often note opinions to the effect that against an unknown or in the absence of specific reads it's safer to fold in this or that spot.

Every time I read this my head automatically says: Be that guy. Be the unknown guy. Unknown image = fold equity = bluffing is more profitable than normal.

I know it's starting a session with high variance plays, but am I completely off the mark in thinking that bluffing as an unknown should normally be +EV if you can do it with a realistic range? (Assuming you can avoid tilting the times when it doesn't succeed)

As far as I can see it doesn't really matter much if you're going to settle into a LAG or TAG style as the image you are looking to exploit is neither LAG nor TAG but rather 'Unknown'. It could probably be argued that TAG pays larger dividends in longer runs, but for now I'd like to concentrate on the possible exploitation possible when you think you have the 'Unknown' image.

I realize that any value there might be is dependent on at least two factors:
1) What is a typical unknown at these stakes? (at higher stakes unknowns might be assumed to be aggressive and bluffy enough that the common wisdom is 'against unknown - call' rather than 'against unknown - fold'.)
2) Has there been any indication at all that the villain involved is likely to have had 'against unknowns - fold and find a better spot' hammered into his head?

Am I mad?
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Monty3038
Old 06-18-2008, 12:06 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I think you have a point but it might be too fine of a point. You are only the unknown until you play a hand... so you're only looking at the first open.

My thought on it is this... you sit at a table, pay your blind to get in, then go quiet... you don't have cards so you're not playing according to the other players... then suddenly you go big... or open big.... they assume you hit a monster and fold...

Basically I think the unknown image works for a blind steal... anyone with good cards though will probably play back into you.
 
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DJJunkPauds
Old 06-20-2008, 10:09 AM #3 (permalink)  
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The thing is you're only as unknown to your opponents as your opponents are unknown to you. My ABC poker game is as good, and usually better than nearly any player I sit at a table with (not because I'm nearly the best in the world, but because I sit at the tables where nearly the worst in the world sit), so I have let's imagine a 2 to 1 advantage on them whilst we are unknowns to each other. But because I read better than nearly any player I sit at a table with (the fact that I read at all usually guarantees me this), once I have a read (and therefore they *might* have a read), my edge ratio is extended, not contracted. In a nutshell, I'll forfeit some information to them, because they are forfeiting much more to me. I'll sit with a better than average player I have 2k hands on way before I'll sit with an unknown (to an extent obviously).

Information is money.
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