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A VERY Hypothetical Question

  
 
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lolzzz_321
Old 02-22-2005, 06:00 PM     Post subject: A VERY Hypothetical Question #1 (permalink)  
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You are third stack in an MTT at the final table. First hand, In the BB you are dealt [Ad,Ah]. Everyone in front of you has pushed all in. Call or fold?
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Old 02-22-2005, 06:04 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I go down swinging. CALL.

I don't see how your odds would be "miniscule." You're not dominating going into this, but you're definitely a little better off then the rest of the table.

I go for the gold here.


 
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Old 02-22-2005, 06:12 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Fold.

Your aces would only have a miniscule MINISCULE amount of chance to take down the ppot, especially if both the other aces are out (which would be probable if many players are all in).

Also, if you fold you are guaranteed 2nd, which is a big step up payout wise from 3rd, so you won't be getting good odds going for your like 7% chance that your aces will hold up.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 02-22-2005, 06:14 PM #4 (permalink)  
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What are the stacks? If you have 1 chip and they have a billion, you fold. Especially if their stacks are precisesly equal and you're guarneteed a 2nd place finish.

-'rilla

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studboyjoe
Old 02-22-2005, 06:36 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Hi,

Eight or Nine other players all-in? You know that some players will be busted after this hand and there is such a huge difference in payout between 9th or 10th and 3rd that it's a no-brainer to me assuming you have the third largest stack. If I was a lot lower on the totem pole, of course, it would be different.
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BarcaBoy
Old 02-22-2005, 06:55 PM #6 (permalink)  

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I've personally lost so many times with pocket AAs and seen so many other people lose on pocket AA's I would only ever want to be all in heads up against someone going in with pocket AA's.
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DrumzCT
Old 02-22-2005, 06:59 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I was actually going to make a similiar hypothetical post till I read this.

Mine was going to be:

You sit down at the beginning of WSOP which you bought into. Your first hand your dealt AA and somone in front of you goes all in the very first hand.

Call or Fold?

...variation someone goes all in, one other person calles and then its too you with the Rockets on the first hand.

Call or Fold?
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TylerK
Old 02-22-2005, 07:18 PM #8 (permalink)  
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You know, I probably fold here. I'm making a crap ton of money when half the table busts on this hand.
TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
 
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a500lbgorilla
Old 02-22-2005, 07:22 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Oh, the first hand of the FT. I thought it was down to 3.

Fold, and you figure to be a huge chip dog with still managable blinds (?) and you move way up in the money.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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ilikeaces86
Old 02-22-2005, 07:34 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarcaBoy
I've personally lost so many times with pocket AAs and seen so many other people lose on pocket AA's I would only ever want to be all in heads up against someone going in with pocket AA's.
Inside the Mind of a fish....
 
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TylerK
Old 02-22-2005, 08:36 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ilikeaces86
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarcaBoy
I've personally lost so many times with pocket AAs and seen so many other people lose on pocket AA's I would only ever want to be all in heads up against someone going in with pocket AA's.
Inside the Mind of a fish....
Now now, no need for that.

He's getting at the right idea...there's no sense in risking your place in the tournament with any hand, AA or otherwise, when simply folding will increase your payout by several places (depending upon stack sizes).
TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
 
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dalecooper
Old 02-22-2005, 08:45 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrumzCT
You sit down at the beginning of WSOP which you bought into. Your first hand your dealt AA and somone in front of you goes all in the very first hand.

Call or Fold?
Call. I'm not sitting at the main event of the WSOP to survive a day or two and then leave with a tiny bit of dignity and no cash. I'm going to be aggressive from the get go and look for every opportunity to double up. This is about as good an opportunity as you'll get. Particularly since this other nimrod probably has KK or QQ, or even AK, and thinks this is a great move. Odds are good he's dominated.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrumzCT
...variation someone goes all in, one other person calles and then its too you with the Rockets on the first hand.

Call or Fold?
Call. Same reasons as before, except now you could possibly triple up. There's very few scenarios here that won't give you at least a 60% chance to win, and the more reasonable ones (AA vs. KK vs. QQ; AA vs. KK vs. AK) make you about a 70% winner. 70% chance to triple your chips in a huge field like that? I'd do that every time.
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EasyT
Old 02-22-2005, 10:04 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
DrumzCT wrote:

You sit down at the beginning of WSOP which you bought into. Your first hand your dealt AA and somone in front of you goes all in the very first hand.

Call or Fold?


Call. I'm not sitting at the main event of the WSOP to survive a day or two and then leave with a tiny bit of dignity and no cash. I'm going to be aggressive from the get go and look for every opportunity to double up. This is about as good an opportunity as you'll get. Particularly since this other nimrod probably has KK or QQ, or even AK, and thinks this is a great move. Odds are good he's dominated.
How could he not be dominated? HU.

Does anyone know the odds for AA if your opponents are KK & QQ?
What about AA -vs- KK, QQ and JJ in a 4-way?

It would be interesting to see how the percentages progress with each additional paired caller (I don't think it will matter WHAT the other pairs are).

Of course 4-way, you could be up against AK, AK, KQ, and KQ! Now how do you like your odds!!
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lolzzz_321
Old 02-22-2005, 10:39 PM #14 (permalink)  
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equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 54.2876 % [ 00.54 00.00 ] { AdAc }
Hand 2: 17.7111 % [ 00.18 00.00 ] { KhKd }
Hand 3: 15.4724 % [ 00.15 00.00 ] { QsQd }
Hand 4: 12.5288 % [ 00.12 00.00 ] { JhJc }

meh, coinflip on who hits their set.


equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 89.5735 % [ 00.89 00.00 ] { AdAc }
Hand 2: 02.7354 % [ 00.01 00.01 ] { AhKs }
Hand 3: 02.7354 % [ 00.01 00.01 ] { AsKh }
Hand 4: 02.4779 % [ 00.00 00.02 ] { KcQd }
Hand 5: 02.4779 % [ 00.00 00.02 ] { KdQc }


---

...
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eeeee
Old 02-23-2005, 02:24 AM #15 (permalink)  
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I've never won a MTT. That being said, I would imagine all the stacks would be different sizes, and that even if your AA hand lost, with your third-largest-stack you may pick up some side pots with your AA, and put out quite a few other players. Third largest stack probably doesn't guarantee you third place anyway. The only way you are out completely is if stack one or two whack you with the best hand.

But I'd probably fold so I could wind up a probably healthy second-sized stack.
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Eric
Old 02-23-2005, 06:55 AM     Post subject: Re: A VERY Hypothetical Question #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Triptanes
You are third stack in an MTT at the final table. First hand, In the BB you are dealt [Ad,Ah]. Everyone in front of you has pushed all in. Call or fold?
What is the pay out structure?
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lolzzz_321
Old 02-23-2005, 07:19 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Wet_DreaMer
Old 02-23-2005, 10:40 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Fold... and then cry when you see the other two aces fall on the flop. :P
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LeFou
Old 02-23-2005, 12:43 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TylerK
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilikeaces86
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarcaBoy
I've personally lost so many times with pocket AAs and seen so many other people lose on pocket AA's I would only ever want to be all in heads up against someone going in with pocket AA's.
Inside the Mind of a fish....
Now now, no need for that.

He's getting at the right idea...there's no sense in risking your place in the tournament with any hand, AA or otherwise, when simply folding will increase your payout by several places (depending upon stack sizes).
Tyler, you're right but so is ilikeaces. Barca's not basing his decision on the expected value but on the past performance of his aces and his friends' aces. Wrong idea entirely.

Barca, read up. Aces are the best hand HU or multiway. Learn to play them and you'll learn to love them.
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EasyT
Old 02-23-2005, 02:27 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 54.2876 % [ 00.54 00.00 ] { AdAc }
Hand 2: 17.7111 % [ 00.18 00.00 ] { KhKd }
Hand 3: 15.4724 % [ 00.15 00.00 ] { QsQd }
Hand 4: 12.5288 % [ 00.12 00.00 ] { JhJc }

meh, coinflip on who hits their set.
Hmmmm. This was surprising to me. I would have guessed it would be more like --
AA 40%
KK 21%
QQ 20%
JJ 19%
So it surpirsed me that the aces are actually still over 50% with 3 callers. It looks like AA will dip under 50 with one more caller, is that right.

Triptaines: Are you getting these numbers with a program? Will PokerTracker do this for me somehow? I'd love to play around with a program like this a little!
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Laeelin
Old 02-23-2005, 02:32 PM #21 (permalink)  
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most people i know that dont love AA, have been slowplaying them.

you just dont slowplay anything but the nut, and one pair, no matter how high, is NEVER the nut.

ps: If your lucky they both have AK /grin

I've been AK vs the AA and won exactly one time.

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ChezJ
Old 02-24-2005, 08:32 PM #22 (permalink)  
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 i believe this exact situation is cited in sklansky's tournament holdem for advanced players book. he says it's the only situation where it's ever correct to fold aces. the reason being that you automatically go into 2nd place and the monetary award of that move up far outweighs the opportunity cost of not playing the hand. if we are talking WSOP 2004, the monetary value of folding in this spot would have been $1 million.

ChezJ
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Bmxicle
Old 02-24-2005, 09:10 PM #23 (permalink)  
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I think this situation depends on your stack size. If you are the biggest or second biggest stack of all those people going all-in then even if you lose you still finish infront of those small stacks that lost with you. Thus you really only loose one placing if you are the biggest stack of the all of all-in people. You either finish one place further behind than if you folded or win and put yourself in an amazing position to win the tourney.

If you are a small stack though, its probably better to fold it, and get placed higher than you normaly would have in relation to your stack size.
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TopThis
Old 02-25-2005, 05:35 AM #24 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by EasyT
Quote:
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 54.2876 % [ 00.54 00.00 ] { AdAc }
Hand 2: 17.7111 % [ 00.18 00.00 ] { KhKd }
Hand 3: 15.4724 % [ 00.15 00.00 ] { QsQd }
Hand 4: 12.5288 % [ 00.12 00.00 ] { JhJc }

meh, coinflip on who hits their set.
Hmmmm. This was surprising to me. I would have guessed it would be more like --
AA 40%
KK 21%
QQ 20%
JJ 19%
So it surpirsed me that the aces are actually still over 50% with 3 callers. It looks like AA will dip under 50 with one more caller, is that right.
AA just has to avoid 6 cards. The remaining paint left in the deck. Same scenario as an underpair vs 2 overcards.
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DoGGz
Old 06-30-2005, 09:09 AM #25 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ilikeaces86
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarcaBoy
I've personally lost so many times with pocket AAs and seen so many other people lose on pocket AA's I would only ever want to be all in heads up against someone going in with pocket AA's.
Inside the Mind of a fish....
Sorry from digging this from the graves.

I'd call depending on chips.

AND THIS IS FUNNY AS HELL!
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drmcboy
Old 06-30-2005, 05:20 PM #26 (permalink)  
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 With one AI - I don't care what number hand it is, I'm calling. Did I really read that? LOL, they are ACES.

Two AIs I'm still going for it.

More than that at the final table it gets dicey and comes down to the chance you think you have of winning the thing. If you feel you're one of the weaker players at the FT I think it makes sense to run AA against maybe 4-5 hands (or less). After that I think you've got to give them up.
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gabe
Old 06-30-2005, 05:36 PM #27 (permalink)  
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this depends on stack sizes and payout structure and how many people at the table.
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bair
Old 06-30-2005, 09:05 PM #28 (permalink)  
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this is the most vague, unanswerable question ever
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