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Im_new
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01-20-2009, 04:40 AM
Post subject: Variance question
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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I'm playing Full ring 25NL....
Are the swings in this game supposed to be huge? I've played about 123,000 hands in all. And For the last 35,000 or so, I've experienced swings like hell....all of them being downward. Has something in my game erupted, or have my stats for my first 90,000 fooled me? For those first 90,000 I ran consistently ~3.6 ptbb/100..... Lately, I've run just under 1.0 ptbb/100 for about 35,000 hands---my latest session was my absolute worst and it destroyed my roll---.
In short this is a tilty thread about my annoyance with variance. Of course, I'm hoping its just variance. I'm hoping that I'm not being a complete idiot out there at the tables.
And should there be an end to this swing anywhere near? How many hands have you guys experienced break even and losing stretches?
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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Parasurama
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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Wait you're still beating the game? Or is that 1.0ptbb/100 negative? At 50NL I had about 50K hands of swingy breakeven/slightly losing poker. I don't think you necessarily have huge leaks but you should always be trying to get better.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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70k hands last month of "BE" poker. I put quotes because I beat 100nl relatively well for like 2.5ptbb/100 (usually it's closer to 3.5ptbb/100).. However, I lost a shitload at 200nl the first week (after winning 9k at 200nl in November over smallish sample). So when I dropped to 100nl. Even though I was winning, I still ended up BE. But yeah... 60k hands in December and wa sup $120 from 100nl/200nl.
This month over ~37k hands of 200nl I'm up $7k. So yes, the swings come and go.. And if you are playing well then there is nothing you can do but accept it.
I saw the thread about you adding more tables. It might not, but it is likely to affect your play.. You will have less time to make decisions and may make poorer decisions. You'd likely be a rare case if your winrate didn't drop some going for 12 to 18-20 tables.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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From what I read you won like 60+ buyins at 25nl over 90k hands and had a session "destroy your roll". How is that possible?
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hangchiong
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 359
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I hope you a had a session,where you destroy a small portion of your roll because those times grinding 60 buy ins over 90k hands was a big grind.
I think Stacks might have answer it for you.Winrate dropping due to the amount of tables you just added?I think that just might be it.I dont think variance is in your game for now,but your winrate(amount of tables) and probably tilt control.
I grinded out 20 buy ins over 20k hands on 6max 2-3 weeks ago on 25NL,just to lose that the same amount due to TILT and adding 2 extra tables(i play 6 tables max on 6max).So for the past week or so,i have been just controlling my emotion and stability.and yea,im back beating 25NL 6max for 5tpbb/100.
I would suggest dropping some tables,and go from there probably.
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Jason
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01-20-2009, 12:52 PM
Post subject: Re: Variance question
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#6 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: TN
Posts: 883
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
In short this is a tilty thread about my annoyance with variance. Of course, I'm hoping its just variance. I'm hoping that I'm not being a complete idiot out there at the tables.
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Variance is a word that gets thrown around a lot and I think it's good you recognize it may be variance and it may not be. One unique thing about poker is that it can be very challenging to pinpoint correlations - sometimes people make money when they make bad decisions, sometimes people lose money when they make good decisions, sometimes people make money when they make good decisions, and sometimes people lose money when they make bad decisions. I try to constantly analyze my game and specific sessions and hands to determine which of those correlations I fall under. If you're constantly making bad decisions, it's obviously time to improve. If you're obviously making good decisions then you will come out ahead in the long run. Keep in mind, it's not always apparent if you're making good or bad decisions - that's one of the great or bad thing about poker.
But, I just see so many threads where people start losing lots of money and say, "Hey, that's variance". I always think, "Okay, it might be variance, or it might be bad poker". Good luck finding the answer for you.
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- Jason
 
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Stacks
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01-20-2009, 01:07 PM
Post subject: Re: Variance question
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#7 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jason
But, I just see so many threads where people start losing lots of money and say, "Hey, that's variance". I always think, "Okay, it might be variance, or it might be bad poker". Good luck finding the answer for you.
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So true.. And this happens in every facet of the game for alot of individuals. They are quick to contribute their wins and successes to fine play, yet blame their loses on variance. And I really think this is a bad attitude to have. Unless you are actively reviewing numerous sessions and can look back and agree with every play you made (results aside), then you need to realize that your losses aren't entirely variance, and that by improving you will possibly reduce those losses.
Personally, I find myself the exact opposite of the individual I described above. I rarely get upset when I experience bad beats or coolers. However, when I made a poor play that I can look back on and realize that the decision I made was a clear mistake, then I get frustrated with myself. I think this is good in that I keep realizing I can always improve. I have never looked back at a session yet and said "yeah.. That was near flawless". And until I can do that on a regular basis, then I have to keep working.
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nice_aiau
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Dunedin, New Zealand
Posts: 260
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XxStacksxX,
I wuv your avatar
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
From what I read you won like 60+ buyins at 25nl over 90k hands and had a session "destroy your roll". How is that possible?
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I withdraw quite often because I use the money to pay a small part of my tuition.
While my lifetime roll is still positive, after the total 123,000 ish hands, I've run 1.00 ptbb/100. I realized that I wrote it confusingly/wrong in my OP. These last 35,000 hands, I've been running very negative, about -3 or so ptbb/100.
But either way, you're right, "destroy" isn't a good word to use. I didn't destroy my roll just yet. I only put a big dent in it. lol I was definitely TILTING when I wrote that post. I've got a good sleep under me, and I'm ready to smack the tables today. 
And I'm definitely considering losing some tables and going back to 12-14. I seriously don't feel and affect on my game. I still see patterns well and adjust to different tables, but you never know. I'm sure my roll will thank me for it.
Thanks guys
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
From what I read you won like 60+ buyins at 25nl over 90k hands and had a session "destroy your roll". How is that possible?
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Was just going to post this as well
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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the entire 60 buyins isn't in "my roll" anymore. I withdrew. Thus my current roll--that is, the one on pstars-- is pretty measly.
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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