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Jay67s
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04-19-2006, 03:27 PM
Post subject: Variance is a bitch
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: West Virginia
Posts: 241
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nl $50
over the last 7000 + hands
I have taken 20 full houses to show down, won 50%
I have taken 15 Flushes to show down, won 67%
and my trips are in negative dollars.
not whinning really, I am about even over this stretch, but I was wondering what these numbers should be "normally"
Really looking forward to getting on the opposite side of this streak.
These numbers can be found in poker tracker, summary tab
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Renton
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04-19-2006, 04:36 PM
Post subject: Re: Variance is a bitch
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#2 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay67s
nl $50
over the last 7000 + hands
I have taken 20 full houses to show down, won 50%
I have taken 15 Flushes to show down, won 67%
and my trips are in negative dollars.
not whinning really, I am about even over this stretch, but I was wondering what these numbers should be "normally"
Really looking forward to getting on the opposite side of this streak.
These numbers can be found in poker tracker, summary tab |
maybe you are slowplaying your big hands too much
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Jay67s
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: West Virginia
Posts: 241
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Its funny you say that, I actually very rarely slowplay. Just running second best. I have seen 1 quad, 2 straight flushes against my full houses in the last 3 days. I also have had set over set against me 3 times in the last two days.
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dpe8598
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 261
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Ahhh variance, sweet variance.
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sejje
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 883
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I'd give you some stats, but I don't know if mine are relevant. I'm in about the same boat as you, I've had a ridiculous streak with sets losing to runner runner garbage.
I heard somewhere that sets on the flop should win about 80% at the river.
As for the boat stuff, bah. Those should win a ridiculous percentage, even if they're just small pots. I would think something like 90%++
Of the flushes that were shown down with only three flush cards on the board, I would expect to win 85%+ probably?
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underminedsk
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Reraising you from the button
Posts: 250
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dont worry, definately variance. I'm just (hopfully) pulling out of a similar downswing myself. Last week I flopped set under set 3 times in an hour and a half, good for -$1500. I only had a small portion of my bankroll on that site, and I have been forced to move down stakes to 1/2 temporarily to make sure I dont bust. Just gotta keep grinding away.
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online br: $14,000, @400NL full ring, 100NL 6 max
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Dislexsik
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: On the grind
Posts: 832
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Im break even for the last 3 weeks with 6k hands.
Got KK 35 times and won only 47%.
My aces got busted twice with an all in by runner runner flush,and als the same for QQ.
Its all good...as long as i stay break even i dont whine to much. 
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Jay67s
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: West Virginia
Posts: 241
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I think posting this was the key. Just won 4 buy in's in 3 hours. I even had a full house hold up against 2 villians all ins. Variance is a bitch.
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