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The value of X and its meaning??? (LONG)

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revolvingiris

06-06-2009, 12:04 AM Post subject: The value of X and its meaning??? (LONG)

#1 (permalink)

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I'm sure I am not the first person to realize this. But poker is a pretty easy game. If you look at each table as a % of your total $$. Then situations such as loosing set over set don't really mean that much. I am apt to getting mad just like everyone else and there are healthy ways to let the aggression out. This isn't my point or really what my topic is about. I just thought I would make the personal point that tilting is OK. I personally believe real tilt comes from trying to stuff your emotions down and not letting them out. Which is why I steam and blow my cash on all 4 tables instead of just re-buying on the one I just lost. I'm not advocating violence or anything like that. But I can say my pillow/bed has taken a beating or two. I have noticed the gym is a better option. Anyways, onto my point.

Poker is an easy game. You bet, they fold you win. They bet, you fold they win. Essentially this is all that happens every orbit of the table and this is how players either win or loose their money. Now keep in mind this is from a micro NL player so obviously I have not had the realizations/conclusions/experience to move to the higher levels of thinking quite yet. So this is a very “on the surface” type of document. I shall dig into the above paragraph more...

I read an article where some crazy guy was talking about poker and Shaina Twain. How X is an unseen being that is always there. Now keep in mind that this may not have been the correct translation of the article. But it helped me come to the following conclusion.

If you somehow were to get AA 100% of the time for the rest of your life and always showed down. No one would play with you (this is not an odds post). I know I wouldn't unless I seriously felt like gambling. So in turn your AA would actually be less profitable because such a small percentage of people would actually take you on. But wait, what if you threw in 72o and you had both AA and 72o equally 50% of the time. Your AA now has more value than it did before because you have just increased the number of people who will take you on. This unseen increase in value 72o gave to AA is what I believe X is and X=Shaina. Plus you have increased the amount of people who pay your AA off thinking you are bluffing with 72o. The more hands you add to your arsenal the more your AA becomes valuable but in turn the less times you will actually hold AA. So I actually think you can have another variable which is Y and Y= -Shaina. X is the variable that gives AA more power and Y is the variable that is effected by the amount of times your dealt AA. In the above example it 50% but in a real world this isn't the case.

Because of the above paragraph is also my reasoning to why great LAGG players are so hard to play against. Most of the time they don't have AA ( variable Y) but because they play so many hands (variable X). When they do have AA they have a ton of people waiting to get their chips in with them. However, I do not think X and Y are the only variables. I think there is another variable Z. Which Z= the number of times an opponent will actually be dealt a hand they want to face off with you.

X= The number of hands (or range) that gives your AA more strength.
Y= The frequency of your total hands where you are actually dealt AA.
Z= The % or number of “quality” hands opponents will get where they are willing to combat you.
--Side note, two of the above you can control and one you cannot.
---Side Side note, I also think there are more variables such as “# of times opponents will draw out on you” but I'm not too sure how far this can go (variable A).

Another thing I have noticed is that Shaina doesn't only apply to specific hands. It also will effect ranges. I say with certainty that if you decrease the value of specific hands in your range, your range will become less strong. Sometimes this is a good thing and sometimes this is a bad thing. If your goal is to make your range look weaker. Then adding hands like 97o, T8o to your raising range will make your overall range seem weaker but your big hands like AA, KK, QQ, AK become more strong (X). The reverse is true also. If you play really tight and remove hands like 97o, T8o from your raising range. Your overall range becomes stronger but opponents are less likely to play against you (Y).

Two scenarios where this can be used:

A) Your at a really tight table and want to loosen the action a bit. The tighter players will fold to you more being they are waiting for their good hands to eventually pound you with. You will loose smaller pots more often (due to the % of tight players at your table) but your bigger hands will get more action.

B) Your at a loose table and are waiting for bigger hands to push hard to make a long term profit against these LAGG types. Your big hands wont get as much action being the LAGGs will pick up on your big hand and fold. Which means if your a good post flop player. You can take more pots away from these types of players.

The two above scenarios seem like backwards thinking. You play TAGG to square off with big cards but yet all the little bluff pots you win generate a winning % and you play LAGG to square off with raggy holdings but yet your big hands get paid off more, generally speaking.

The last thing I will touch on is Shaina (X) and her effect on bet sizing. I'll make this short since this is already a long post. The smaller of a bet you make the higher percentage your opponent will call. The larger the bet, the less likely they will call. Generally speaking the above paragraph is true. But many variables have an effect on an opponents choice to check, call, raise, or fold. However, many people don't know why this is. Most assume its because people don't want to risk a lot betting and fold to the pressure. But how many people know why the pressure is even there in the first place? Did you know you can manipulate that pressure in more ways than just increasing the bet size?

X= Strength of your range that increases the value of wagered amount.
Y= The number of times you make that bet.
Z= The number of times your opponent will call that bet.
A= The % of times your bet represents what it really is.
-These things all make up what your 3x pf is really trying to represent.

The one thing I have realized from Shaina Twain is the value of knowing your own range strength. Once you realize this, you are able to manipulate much more than you think and are further capable of applying more pressure in more situations. Anyways, sorry for this being so long but its been rattling around in my head for quite sometime and I wanted to see what other peoples opinions on it are.

Thanks for reading.

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Micro2Macro

06-06-2009, 12:11 AM

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I think my head just exploded reading this because I was studying some stats just before.

Good effort with the post.

I think in general what you're trying to say is 'for fucks sake if you're going to nit it you up need to accept that you are missing out on a ton of value and thus, please do not bitch if your win rate is shitty or if you never get paid off often enough you gotta start mixing in some X's with your Y's'

Am I close

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revolvingiris

06-06-2009, 12:37 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Haha basically! I was also trying to prove the point that a lot of high stakes players make mention of. Its not the "bet here bet there" posts that us smaller stakes players are really going to benefit from. Its understanding the concept to why bet here and bet there.
TAGG isnt > LAGG or vice versa. Its do you know what your doing and why are you doing it. There are tons of different ways to play a hand. So many that the thought of autopiolot/ABC seems a little crazy. I was actually a little nervous to post my thoughts but I feel like it can spark up some interesting replies. Maybe even from people who can correct my line of thinking if its way off.

http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/show...fpart=all&vc=1

Above is the link I pulled from a ISF post. Thanks for posting this!

bjsaust

06-06-2009, 12:45 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Join Date: May 2007

Location: Ballarat, Australia

Posts: 5,842

Two short things, its just Shania not Shania Twain

.

Secondly, what you've understood is the example of Shania, not Shania as a whole concept. Its a good start, but realise theres a lot more there as you dig past the examples and into the theory behind those examples.

I'm a bit tired so didnt focus too much on the details of your post, but nothing stood out as wrong, so nice job thinking about poker. Its stuff like this that'll help you improve

Just playing to improve.

revolvingiris

06-06-2009, 05:59 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2008

Posts: 1,139

I'm pretty excited to have at least understood that. Im sure the meaning behind the example is discussed all the time. Only I dont know what that is so I dont know what to look for. I hope starring at it a few more times will open up even more.

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The value of X and its meaning??? (LONG)

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