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value bet or push?

  
 
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thizzSantaCruz
Old 11-29-2006, 07:57 AM     Post subject: value bet or push? #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 55/11, he will at times try to take down pots but he usually is not sticking big money out without a decent hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($87.15)
UTG+1 ($23.85)
MP1 ($37.75)
MP2 ($82.90)
MP3 ($52)
CO ($41.85)
Hero ($50)
SB ($33.50)
BB ($49)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K.
UTG raises to $1.5, 5 folds, Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, UTG calls $3.50.

Flop: ($10.75) 3, 2, 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $4, Hero calls $4.

Turn: ($18.75) 3 (2 players)
UTG bets $10, [color=#CC3333]Hero ......



do i raise? or should I cold call and value bet the river? this one really got me thinking.
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LeFou
Old 11-29-2006, 07:26 PM #2 (permalink)  
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you have to raise this flop what were your thoughts there?
Raising the flop is the only way to find out how you should play this turn. I'd generally push, I think villain calls shows TT-QQ often enough
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Reidak
Old 11-29-2006, 07:40 PM #3 (permalink)  
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his PFR is only 11, so hes only raising premium hands here. Id raise the flop, hoping he pushes with pckt 10 J Q or maybe even AK if he isnt that great. Since you let him off the hook on the flop you definatley need to raise the riv, id say make it 20 more to go
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DaHorror
Old 11-29-2006, 09:34 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Judging by his bet sizes, and under the assumption that he has an overpair here, it appears that he is smart enough to get away from this hand if you push the turn...I think a raise to $25-30 would be called and he might not be able to get away on the river if another low card comes.

If he's smart enough to get away from the turn raise, so be it.
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thizzSantaCruz
Old 11-30-2006, 03:07 AM #5 (permalink)  
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yea thats what i thought....i raised up to 30 i think and he folded after taking the maximum time. he showed JJ.

about raising the flop how does that affect your play on the turn? if he calls are you getting your whole stack in on the turn? how would you play it?
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givememyleg
Old 11-30-2006, 07:39 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 raise the flop g

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Halv
Old 11-30-2006, 08:27 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jishu
his PFR is only 11, so hes only raising premium hands here.
When did 11% PFR become "premium hands only"? My own pfr is ~11%, and my UTG range includes any PP most of the time.

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Fnord
Old 11-30-2006, 08:30 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HalvSame
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jishu
his PFR is only 11, so hes only raising premium hands here.
When did 11% PFR become "premium hands only"? My own pfr is ~11%, and my UTG range includes any PP most of the time.
22 is a premium hand for me.
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Halv
Old 11-30-2006, 08:42 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by HalvSame
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jishu
his PFR is only 11, so hes only raising premium hands here.
When did 11% PFR become "premium hands only"? My own pfr is ~11%, and my UTG range includes any PP most of the time.
22 is a premium hand for me.
Not for me :


In all seriousness though, the way I read the post my quote was taken from it hints at opp's range here being something like TT+, which is why I made the comment.

And thanx for quoting me btw, I'm honored

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DaHorror
Old 12-02-2006, 06:51 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thizzSantaCruz
yea thats what i thought....i raised up to 30 i think and he folded after taking the maximum time. he showed JJ.

about raising the flop how does that affect your play on the turn? if he calls are you getting your whole stack in on the turn? how would you play it?
This guy looked like he wanted you to raise anywhere so that he could just fold. I think a flop reraise vs. this very nitty player gets a fold from him unless you've been out of line (given the preflop action).

If he calls a reraise on the flop I would tend to look at betting half-pot or so on the turn against this player (who is not drawing to more than 2 outs) for pure value extraction. He's probably check-folding the turn, but is more likely to call 1/3rd to 1/2 pot bet, though you're not extracting much more value. You're just flat-out not going to double-up against this player in this spot though so you just gotta take what you can get.

Don't take these as general betting-style comments, as they apply particularly to this hand and what it looks like your opponent has and his willingness to pay you off with those holdings.
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