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h1ghf1ve
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07-15-2009, 07:41 PM
Post subject: Is this usual ?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: UK
Posts: 3
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Hi,
Not a complete beginer here, played a bit online and play in some home games from time to time. I know some basic stuff and I'm ok at maths.
Here's the thing..
Playing online at Party Poker I have now been beat with pocket aces...wait for it... eight times in a row (!!!) when I have seen a flop.
I did win one hand with them, but only because I put in a small raise (2x the BB) on the button, and everybody else folded. Bah.
Three of the eight times I got beat by a straight, twice by flushes, and various other combinations. I even made trip A's on the flop and still got beat... twice.
So if I'm an 80% pre flop favorite that means being beat is 4:1 against, right? So to lose eight times in a row must be 4 to the power of 8 ? ie- 4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4 which is about 65,000 to 1
What I want to know is- Does this sort of thing happen to anybody else online? Or should I just avoid online poker? Because it seems pretty sketchy to me...
Thoughts?
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HarleyGuy13
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Oregon
Posts: 1,226
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If I were to guess you're probably trying to be sneaky with your aces. Bet them like you got a big balls. If you are betting correctly and the villians are making poor calls then oh well shit happens. If you are betting properly and all then hold on because you've got a big heater coming your way. But I'm betting this isn't the case. Loook at how you are playing your aces as a whole!
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"You start the game with a full pot o’ luck and an empty pot o’ experience...
The object is to fill the pot of experience before you empty the pot of luck."
Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Do you have testicles? If so, learn to bet like it  |
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Hawk
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 367
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normal? not quite.
going to happen on occasion anyways? yes.
also, being a whatever favorite preflop really only counts if you are all-in preflop. You can still be a huge underdog putting money in after the flop.
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h1ghf1ve
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: UK
Posts: 3
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Hmm, well, 6 of the 8 times I was all-in before the flop. Trust me, I know how to raise with aces
The other two times I just called other peoples big raises, when they had stuff like A,10 suited or low pairs like 3's or 5's.
But in every case I got smashed. Usually on the river...
Just wondered if the same sort of crazy luck happens to other people online? Or am I just the lucky one ? 
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linaker
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: UK
Posts: 70
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If your chance of losing with Aces is (1/5) then your chance of losing 8 times in a row is (1/5) to the power 8 which is 1/390625 or 390 624 - 1. However, if you lost three times in a row, then won with AA when everyone folded, then lost five times again, you have really only lost five times in a row.
I lost 11 times in a row with Aces on Party Poker to a lower pair. In some of those hands, I wasn't 80% to win because there was more than one person in the pot. But that did not make it less annoying. However, overall, of all the times I have been dealt AA on Party Poker, I have won 78% of the time. In online poker you see a lot of hands and so rarities can occur. Over time, they even out.
Minraising AA is not a good idea. You are only about 80% to win with AA, when you are pre-flop against one opponent. If you have four opponents, then your chances are only a little better than half. And has been pointed out, if you have AcAs and your opponent has Ah4h, your chance of winning pre-flop is 87%. If the flop is Kh 6h 5h, your chance of winning is less than 2%.
Don't worry about whether you are unlucky or if online Poker is rigged. Improve your play.
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JKDS
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 1,024
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no, online poker isnt rigged.
yes, its unusual because its rare but nonetheless it should and DOES happen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
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h1ghf1ve
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: UK
Posts: 3
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Meh, the only reason I min raised the one time was because everybody folded to me, leaving me and the big and small blind (who were both playing tighter than a ducks chuff..) and I knew they would fold to any large bet, so I tried a min raise.. and they still folded.
To be honest I could have raised on any two cards and they would've folded. So I don't really count that as a win per se.
The point was being beaten 8 times having seen a flop.
I still think it's a bit sketchy, or, maybe I'm the last person on earth you should ask to pick your lottery numbers 
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chatzilla
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 360
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It's defiantly not sketchy as JKDS said.
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no way, aces lose sometimes?
why didn't anybody tell me
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Sir Pawnalot
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Norway
Posts: 668
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Yes it is unusual. You got very unlucky. Now you probably need to play another 200 000 hands before your EV evens out with AA.
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A foolish man learns nothing from his mistakes.
A smart man learns only from his own mistakes.
A wise man learns from his own mistakes, and those of the smart man and the fool.
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settecba
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: stealing blinds from UTG
Posts: 326
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Hi OP, welcome to FTR.
Post hands, learn, improve. Whining doesnt do any good.
GL.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ISF
Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
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Carroters
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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Who here remembers Angry Donk Theorem?
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JKDS
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 1,024
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link?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
no way, aces lose sometimes?
why didn't anybody tell me
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LOL... and in other news, the new phone books are here.
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surviva316
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07-16-2009, 08:48 PM
Post subject: Re: Is this usual ?
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#15 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by h1ghf1ve
So if I'm an 80% pre flop favorite that means being beat is 4:1 against, right? So to lose eight times in a row must be 4 to the power of 8 ? ie- 4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4 which is about 65,000 to 1
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so you play HU? 'cause if you play any other style, then you're actually <50% favorite
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas.  |
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settecba
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: stealing blinds from UTG
Posts: 326
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I remember ADT carroters
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ISF
Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
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