|
redmanstl
|
05-05-2007, 10:37 PM
Post subject: Useable sample size.....
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 133
|
|
....I'm not convinced that I'm much more than a break-even player at low-limit hold 'em. I'm a little bit ahead of even, but only A LITTLE, and I'd like to figure out my average win-rate to determine how long before I'm warranted in moving up levels. What is a good sample size of hands? 5K, 10K, 15K, more? Thanks for your time all - - and unsub#1, if you read this, sorry I was so critical in your thread. Cheers!!
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
unsub#1
|
|
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 22
|
|
No worries!
Your avg. win-rate is your BB/100. PokerTracker can tell you what it is if you have it.
As for a reliable sample size, i think that 10-20K can give you a rough idea; however, 100K is more realistic, in terms of getting a "true" win-rate and standard deviation.
Do you play full-ring or 6-max? One thing I have noticed over the past 12-18 months is that the full-ring low-limit games are no longer "juicy". That is, the table averages for flops seen seem to rarely get over 30%. In fact, depending on the exact limit and the site, you may have trouble finding a low-limit table not in the 20%s. Therefore, many of the strategies in SSHE are not applicable (He states numerous times that his book was intended to maximize profit at the "typical loose" tables. Well, those low-limit tables are no longer loose.
Six max has the loose and fishy players now, IMO. If you are interested in learning 6-max, I suggest the new 2p2 book out by STOXTRADER on winning in tough and short-handed limit games. It is SEVERELY in depth on blind play, open-raise standards by position, re-steal standards, blind on blind play, big blind defense, small blind defense, etc...
These are the key skills to beating a tight or short-handed game.
|
|
|
|
Miffed22001
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
|
|
a sample size to find your true winrate is one where a session's result have no effect on your overall winrate 
Other than that, 15k is a starter as to whether you have any ability.
You'll find lots of posts though that tell you its possibel to run break even over larger sample sizes BUT in small stakes games you shouldnt run bad/break even for long because your good hands get paid regardless.
|
|
|
|
redmanstl
|
|
3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 133
|
|
I had similar thoughts as to the non-applicability of the SSHE principles. I am playing 6-max, b/c that's about all AP has running these days, and so I think buckling down for 15K and seeing where I stand after that is the next logical step. Also, I'll check out that 2p2 book, b/c I haven't read a bad one of those yet - - they're all chock full of wisdom. Thanks y'all, and here's to crushing ppl that don't read our forum!!
|
|
|
|
Miffed22001
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
|
|
dude, if you think you suck, then post some hands!
|
|
|
|
Chopper
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
a sample size to find your true winrate is one where a session's result have no effect on your overall winrate |
joking or not, thats got some logic to it.
kind of like a hitter batting avg towards the end of the year. it pretty much is what it is after 500ish at bats.
not that i'm advocating a 500 hand sample size...
now i'm winking...lol.
|
|
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
|
|
redmanstl
|
|
3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 133
|
|
"dude, if you think you suck, then post some hands!"
And thus ended redman's posts on FTR.....I wasn't saying I suck, I was just trying to find out how I could measure relative success. I explained the general trend (slightly winning) so far, and wanted to know what to do next. No reason to accuse someone of sucking.
|
|
|
|
acesfullokings
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Sydney
Posts: 198
|
|
Probably no need to be so touchy either.
|
|
I started a new job so don't play much ATM, just FTP mini grind
|
|
Pelion
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by redmanstl
And thus ended redman's posts on FTR.....
|
He got the wrong end of
Quote:
|
I'm not convinced that I'm much more than a break-even player
|
.
Dont be so sensitive. We're all here to help
|
|
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
|
|
redmanstl
|
|
3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 133
|
|
Thanks Pelion for the cool down........I was just starting to take it seriously enough to think big-picture & long-term thoughts, didn't want to hear that "I suck", but I see that's not what he was saying.
All the same, I'm probably going to slow up on the posting and try to crank out 10-15K hands by the end of May, see how I stand, and check back in with you guys to see how things look. Thanks for the input. Cheers!!
|
|
|
|
Pelion
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
|
|
good luck with it. Post us a nice graph when youre done.
|
|
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
|
|
Miffed22001
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by redmanstl
"dude, if you think you suck, then post some hands!"
And thus ended redman's posts on FTR.....I wasn't saying I suck, I was just trying to find out how I could measure relative success. I explained the general trend (slightly winning) so far, and wanted to know what to do next. No reason to accuse someone of sucking.
|
lol
It wasnt supposed to be taken as a serious comment. I'll put some sarcasm markers around it so you understand i was only suggesting you post more HH's.
In all seriousness, most of our supposed break even players dont post enough HH's describing their thoughts on play and thats what i was suggesting, rather than the fact you might suck 
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
