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mcdonough22
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12-09-2007, 03:21 AM
Post subject: underset vs. overset
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: California
Posts: 187
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Just lost with a set of deuces on the flop against a set of fives. That's twice in a week and I'm wondering about the odds on this: 12% on the flop for me to hit my set which leaves about 8% for him to hit his so the odds of two sets on the flop is .12x.08=0.096 meaning that when I hit a set, there's a 1% chance my opponent did too. Is this correct?
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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his set is also 12% to hit on the flop. set over set is pretty common.
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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pankfish
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: On Tony Romo's nuts
Posts: 385
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set over set is almost as bad as flush over flush. I got out flushed twice today. WTF?
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<Staxalax> I want everyone to put my quote in their sigs
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Sheetah
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 278
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http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...381&highlight=
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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try flopping bigger sets next time
because set happens!
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Girlfriend: Why are the werewolves more important than living life?!
Girlfriend: Are you on the forums doing the werewolves again?
Girlfriend: Soo... you forgot to run that errand, but you had time to werewolf? Wtf?
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mcdonough22
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: California
Posts: 187
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Quote:
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his set is also 12% to hit on the flop. set over set is pretty common.
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Is this a serious post? If I hit my set, he only has two cards to hit his set since one of them is my set! Thus, his 8% chance on what's left of the flop. If you think 1% is "pretty common", then I guess you get pocket aces "pretty commonly" or maybe a straight flush "quite a bit".  Can anyone confirm the math?
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try flopping bigger sets next time
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Yep, that's why I go to the gym now. Thanks...
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mcdonough22
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: California
Posts: 187
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Your link confirmed it for me, Sheetah. Thanks...
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Sheetah
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 278
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YW
Back when I wrote it, I was really pessimistic (just like you now  ) and forgot to mention that at the same time these are also the odds of how often you will be on the 'good side'.
Also and this is very important concept: this time you had lower set, but next time your opponent will and both of you played it fine - in the long run you're break even in situations like this (let's forget the rake for a moment).
In other words don't think bad about yourself cause it happened to you and do not assume you pawn just because you had bigger one this time - hands like this are not a reason why someone is long term winner ... or loser.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bode
his set is also 12% to hit on the flop.
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you boob.... infact you are all boobs.
You cant work it out this way at all unless you are against a single opponent who always starts off with a pocket pair. Actually you are against a number of opponents, each of whom has a variable range of hands of which only some fraction (half?) are pocket pairs, so its really going to be much more complicated. As a very rough guess 1% seems reasonable but its probably a few times that in reality.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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mcdonough22
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: California
Posts: 187
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Quote:
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this time you had lower set, but next time your opponent will and both of you played it fine
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Well, if you wanna get technical, everytime I play a set of deuces and this situation happens, I'll always be on the ass end, but I hear want you're saying...
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don't think bad about yourself cause it happened to you
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I hope I don't give off that vibe. In a tourney situation, I'm still playing a set of deuces fast, knowing this will happen to them one time in a hundred.
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you boob.... infact you are all boobs.
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Ahh, to be a boob. I was just trying to get the overset math correct. If I were wondering how often a set of deuces were going to win the hand, I would certainly have to take other variables into account. But I'm not doing that here.
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...each of whom has a variable range of hands of which only some fraction (half?) are pocket pairs...
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Half? OK, now who's the boob? :P
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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With 100bb stacks in NLHE, your set under sets and set over sets will (and should) run damn near break even in the long run.
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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