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AFchung
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09-10-2008, 12:20 AM
Post subject: Ugly Spot: CRAI
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: UCLA
Posts: 1,179
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new at table. no reads
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG+1 ($3.19)
MP1 ($4.96)
MP2 ($2.79)
Hero (CO) ($2.49)
Button ($2.44)
SB ($1.52)
BB ($1.56)
UTG ($5)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A , Q
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.10, 3 folds, MP2 calls $0.08
Flop: ($0.23) 7, 10, A (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.20, MP2 raises to $2.69 (All-In), Hero folds
Total pot: $0.63 | Rake: $0
Results in white below:
MP2 didn't show
Outcome: MP2 won $0.63
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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Meh I can't fold AJ+ here
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TLR
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 5,007
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I would call, you will run into worse Ax or Ax+FD, FD+gutshut str8 draw most of the time, you are either ahead or flipping with dead money in the pot
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your backdoor flush draw gives you some protection against flush draw type hands you're even money with 9c8c
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ponyboy
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 379
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Typically when I see something like that they either flopped two pair or a set and don't want to slowplay it - or have a flush draw.
I would still call hoping not to see 77 or A10.
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wellrounded08
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: ...Good Question........Where am I?
Posts: 366
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ponyboy
Typically when I see something like that they either flopped two pair or a set and don't want to slowplay it - or have a flush draw.
I would still call hoping not to see 77 or A10.
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I started to say the same thing. Only thing is, isn't 2NL a breeding ground for slowplayers? They love to do that right? IDK. I know I'm calling all day though.
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AFchung
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: UCLA
Posts: 1,179
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every time i've had a spot similar like this, they ended up making 2pair or a set. that's why i ended up folding
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sarbox68
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
Meh I can't fold AJ+ here
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I think this is good... including the "meh"...
That being said, how much of the gambool u got in you?... You're stacking off to a massive over-shove w/ TPTK and a backdoor FD. This kinda sh!t can be exciting... but I believe you gotta do it consistently or it's gonna be the equivalent of constantly buying high and selling low when Murphy's Law kicks your @ss on the occasional ones you call. 
oh... and this is based on no reads...
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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Theres no need to call here.
May be good, may not be, but why risk 110 bbs finding out?
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Just playing to improve.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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without reads, calling is high variance. there are much better spots to stick it in. i doubt this is air. you may be ahead, but he probably has a big redraw. and, if you are behind, you are likely well behind. if your Q was a club, this is obviously a snap call.
fold. pot is too small and villain's bet is too big here.
can you be sure you are ahead 44% of the time w/o reads?
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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I'm folding this because of set miners at these stakes. Although very tempting indeed because of the redraw. You're not drawing dead to any hand...
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Pig_Vomit
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 165
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I'm surprised so many of you are willing to call. You half to be right alot for this to be profitable. Right?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pig_Vomit
I'm surprised so many of you are willing to call. You half to be right alot for this to be profitable. Right?
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44.7% of the time
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Pig_Vomit
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 165
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How'd you reach this? What sort of range do you put villian on? I'd thought it would be fairly narrow but I suck at ranges.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pig_Vomit
How'd you reach this? What sort of range do you put villian on? I'd thought it would be fairly narrow but I suck at ranges. |
No, I said you'd have to be right 44.7% of the time because this is the pot %
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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jeez, it's 2NL, this guy has any A or FD here. He doesn't have both because we hold the Ac. It's rarely a set because most guys don't fast play sets at this level. I call all day, with money in the pot already, like iopq says 44.7% of the time we need to be ahead here. We are ahead here a ton more often.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pig_Vomit
How'd you reach this? What sort of range do you put villian on? I'd thought it would be fairly narrow but I suck at ranges. |
range is fairly irrelevant here. we have no reads, and 2NL players may do this with a lot of stuff...or very little. its completely player dependent.
but, for the calculations, you have to look at stack sizes and pot size.
HERO starts with $2.49. villain has him "covered." so, when its "all in," HERO can win a max of ($2.49 X 2) + dead money. once you get that number, you divide the amount you have to call into it. here its $2.19, or the amount left in your stack after investing $.30 into the pot so far.
$2.19 / ($2.49 X 2) + dead money = 44%
that is the % of the time you need to win the hand to break even on the call. now, is TPTK strong enough with flush draws, sets, two pair hands, and a slim redraw to challenge this large bet for your stack? if he has a flush draw, he will win about 36% of the time. (too close to 44 for me at these stakes when a better opportunity will come along in another orbit.) if he has a set, we are well behind. therefore, i dont like it as a whole. i just cant see this being a bluff often enough to "pick off."
now, say its a river bet of $.45 into $2. you have TPTK and close the action. pot is $2.45 and you are putting another $.45 in to win $2.90. $.45/$2.90 is only 15% to break even.
i feel a lot better about TPTK in the latter situation.
honestly, i dont do these calculations with the timer running. but, it does get easy to estimate to about 10% or so what your odds are.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Pig_Vomit
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 165
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okay thanks for the explination guys. I was thinking it was a pokerstove thing.
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