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Outlaw
Old 11-02-2009, 12:29 PM     Post subject: Turn line? #1 (permalink)  
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Villain 12/6/2.0 over 80 hands. First pot we've played. My bet sizing sucks, I realize that.. but I was trying to not be committed should he shove the turn.. instead he lays me 3 to 1 and I have a pair and 9 outs to the nuts. Ship turn or just call? His play me looked like a poorly played AK, KQ, KJ, set, or some kind of combo draw.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG+1 ($28.60)
MP1 ($52.30)
MP2 ($26.05)
MP3 ($44)
Hero (CO) ($25)
Button ($26.80)
SB ($25.10)
BB ($29.50)
UTG ($25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 5
5 folds, Hero bets $1, Button calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 6, K, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, Button calls $1.10

Turn: ($4.55) J (2 players)
Hero bets $2.15, Button raises to $5.50, Hero ?

This is my guess on a pokerstove. I added AA/KK because a lot of peeps slowplay big pairs at 25NL.

Board: 6d Kc 5d Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.424% 49.42% 00.00% 1631 0.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 50.576% 50.58% 00.00% 1669 0.00 { KK+, JJ, 66-55, AKs, KJs+, 87s, 43s, AKo, KJo+, 87o, 43o }
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Da GOAT
Old 11-02-2009, 12:45 PM #2 (permalink)  
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you can take out all his draw type hands. check you range vs his made hands then check you equity to hit
Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
 
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Outlaw
Old 11-02-2009, 02:24 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Da GOAT
you can take out all his draw type hands. check you range vs his made hands then check you equity to hit
Board: 6d Kc 5h Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.586% 26.59% 00.00% 503 0.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 73.414% 73.41% 00.00% 1389 0.00 { KK+, JJ, 66-55, AKs, KJs+, AKo, KJo+ }

So this is a clear fold since we don't know if he'll stack with all of these hands should the flush complete? And there is very little FE against that strong of a range so I can't shove?

Man I suck at math but it looks like folding is right unless I am missing something.

Thanks goat.
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Da GOAT
Old 11-02-2009, 02:27 PM #4 (permalink)  
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no thats looks solid. id very much doubt villian will get aggro on turn even with the very best combo draws.

sure its possible he could be running a pure bluff like 10% of the time but you still gotta fold even if he bluffs such a %.
Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
 
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Outlaw
Old 11-02-2009, 03:06 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Da GOAT
no thats looks solid. id very much doubt villian will get aggro on turn even with the very best combo draws.

sure its possible he could be running a pure bluff like 10% of the time but you still gotta fold even if he bluffs such a %.
Any idea how much equity would make continuing on the turn profitable vs a strong villain range?
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Da GOAT
Old 11-02-2009, 03:24 PM #6 (permalink)  
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wots your equity to hit a flush. thats wot u need to break even, any better than that is great. you can accept worse odds slightly if you think you can get a modest bet from him on river.
Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
 
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settecba
Old 11-02-2009, 07:55 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Am I missing something? Hero has enough pot odds to draw.
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Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
 
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Carroters
Old 11-02-2009, 08:13 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 Yeah surely this is an easy call given pot odds + implied odds.

 
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Outlaw
Old 11-02-2009, 08:16 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Against a strong range that you think will call a river bet, its a call I think. But if he won't pay off a flush, its 3-1.. we need 4-1 right?
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Kbryce23
Old 11-02-2009, 08:19 PM #10 (permalink)  
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A nit raising on the turn means atleast JK imo. You have 3:1 direct odds and he is probably betting any river. What I'm not sure of is when you hit should you be shoving or check-raising. I think a c/r is better because his range is so strong and he's probably firing the river. Also, it's a backdoor FD so it is a bit more disguised.
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spoonitnow
Old 11-02-2009, 08:20 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 8 outs to the nuts*

For everyone who is like omfg this is the easiest call in the history of shit that's easy to call I think you're likely to be over-estimating our implied odds and under-estimating our reverse implied odds. I think it's somewhat marginal but I still call because I never make bad folds.
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I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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settecba
Old 11-02-2009, 09:25 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Why are you saying we have 3:1 direct odds? Its 4.28:1. Still not enough for heros NUT outs which are 8 as Spoon said, but still its a call.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ISF
Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
 
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Kbryce23
Old 11-04-2009, 01:11 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by settecba
Why are you saying we have 3:1 direct odds? Its 4.28:1. Still not enough for heros NUT outs which are 8 as Spoon said, but still its a call.
3.64:1 direct odds?
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