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TT- Aggro villain shoving avg pot on turn

  
 
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JoeHaw
Old 11-02-2009, 09:28 PM     Post subject: TT- Aggro villain shoving avg pot on turn #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 50/12/15.0 over 26 hands w 100% double barrel, 0% fold to cbet, lots of aggro all streets esp. turn and the only cbet he's faced was raised- all suggesting a pretty maniacal villain, is the sample to small to assume this?

$0.05/$0.10 Ante $0.02 Deep No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG a6692529 ($33.73)
UTG+1 bozzer87 ($3.22)
MP1 Gambit_PT1 ($24.31)
MP2 djswerve ($8.57)
CO Kantfeel ($10)
BTN TrulyRaNd0m ($13.65)
SB Mcus1 ($4.57)
BB Hero ($10)

Pre-Flop: ($0.31, 8 players) Hero is BB
a6692529 raises to $0.70, 6 folds, Hero calls $0.60

I've noted the size of the preflop raise w/ my results- but at the time I didn't really give it any weighting on a certain part of villains range given his loose image

Flop: ($1.61, 2 players)
Hero checks, a6692529 bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40

Is there merit in raising here? I don't really want to fold out broadways if I think he's double barrelling them, right? But any picture card is scary for me. What's my plan if he 3bets or flats the raise? I'm very uncomfortable w/ raising here I dunno why.

Turn: ($4.41, 2 players)
Hero checks, a6692529 bets $27.50, Hero goes all-in $7.88

So to me versus this opponent it screams two suited broadways, right? And that obv outweighs JJ+ 77 not to mention sometimes it could be 88 99 if it can be JJ right? I didn't stove it pretty sure my equity is good there- but do you think it's mainly suited cards in his range here?

River: ($39.79, 2 players, 1 all-in)
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holdenthefuries
Old 11-02-2009, 09:37 PM #2 (permalink)  

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holdenthefuries
What have you been flat-calling with? If he has you on Two Broadways then he will bet this way with a lot of pocket pairs on a paired board, not even good ones. The turn makes it trickier, but I think that is a stack-size thing more than anything else. He knows this call is marginal at best for you because he comes so often with AA, QQ, JJ, (Which I think you're under-estimating)... he is probably going to fire three barrels with AK, not shove the turn (though he could every now and then to mix it up if he is really playing a high-card game.) It depends on what he thinks you have that he's trying to get you fold out with. I probably raise the flop and see if I can get it in there, knowing that if it is capped it could be a rough go but that you might also see 88, 99, A7.

IMO, his bet sizing indicates a high pocket pair that is like, "F*ck... look at these drawing hands that I may no longer be good against... But I know he needs a pretty nut hand to call here given his stack-size, so I think my pair is still good and I'm getting it in." Do some soul reading, and probably call given the fact he is this aggro and you probably need to include a lot of ax high card kq, lower pocket pairs in there.

You may be dealing with trips every now and then, I'd guess a medium pair to high pair though... Maybe he even hit a set. Still, against a guy who bets like this, call.
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daven
Old 11-02-2009, 11:10 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 26 hands isn't very many.
I seriously consider folding pre.
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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JoeHaw
Old 11-03-2009, 01:07 AM #4 (permalink)  
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cant i set mine either way?
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holdenthefuries
Old 11-03-2009, 01:22 AM #5 (permalink)  

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holdenthefuries
Why are you short-stacked???
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JoeHaw
Old 11-03-2009, 01:34 AM #6 (permalink)  
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I'm not?
I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it.
-Thomas Jefferson

Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.
-Thomas Edison
 
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JoeHaw
Old 11-03-2009, 01:34 AM #7 (permalink)  
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I'm not?
I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it.
-Thomas Jefferson

Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.
-Thomas Edison
 
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holdenthefuries
Old 11-03-2009, 05:10 AM #8 (permalink)  

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holdenthefuries
"$0.05/$0.10 Ante $0.02 Deep No Limit Holdem"

Relative to deep-stacks are you not? Shouldn't you have $20.00 behind? The reason I ask is because set-mining is going to be way more profitable if you can play for stacks, even more-so when you are deep-stacked.
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XTR1000
Old 11-03-2009, 10:06 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Id like to point out, that 12% PFR does not indicate a "maniacish" villian, also postflop stats are totally worthless over this small a sample and should not even be posted, b/c they may flaw some peoples perception of the villian.

Given the limited info we have on the situation preflop and flop are fine, now c/f turn.
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