|
IOS
|
11-23-2005, 06:59 PM
Post subject: True or False?
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: 100NL 6max
Posts: 84
|
|
I've read somewhere on these forums that 10k hands is considered long term. If you can make it 10k hands and are showing profit, chances are you will are a winning player. Anyone agree with this statement?
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
Cocco_Bill
|
|
11-23-2005, 07:08 PM
Post subject: Re: True or False?
|
#2 (permalink)
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 1,254
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by IOS
I've read somewhere on these forums that 10k hands is considered long term. If you can make it 10k hands and are showing profit, chances are you will are a winning player. Anyone agree with this statement?
|
10k hands will give you an idea where you stand but I wouldn't call it the long term. I would even go as far as to say that any winning player will sooner or later have a 10k hand streak of break even poker.
|
|
|
|
EricE
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 894
|
|
10K is the minimum # of hands you want to look at to see if you are profitable v.s. losing. It is by no means long term but can be used as a checkpoint to see how you are doing. More hands is always better to better wash out variance and see the true win rate.
|
|
Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL
|
|
edudlive
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 100NL 6max
Posts: 623
|
|
10k is a weeks worth of player if you're playing a lot, but it gives you an ok look at how you're doing
|
|
(16:02:25) Fleece: u think ur liked now?
(16:02:31) Fleece: that u got real life friends
(16:02:48) Fleece: enjoy ur real life friends
(16:03:08) Fleece: ur e-friends dont wanna knwo about u anymore
|
|
Demiparadigm
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
|
|
I would go so far as to say that given a large enough sample size, any winning player will have a run of 10K hands losing, and 40K is not unheard of.
I did some math earlier to prove that a marginally "losing" player can realistically have a "good" run of over half a million hands.
10K is not long term. It is not close. It will give you a good idea of how you play, but not how you do.
|
|
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
|
|
Demiparadigm
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
|
|
From my Bankroll thread:
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by I
To determine how long it will take for your average win to be 1 standard deviation, divide the square of your standard deviation for 1 hour by the square of your hourly rate.
hours to be ahead 84% of the time = (sigma/ev)^2.
*84% = the 68% of the time you will be +/- 1SD and the 16% you will be up more than 1SD.
This is one way to define the "long run". To find out how long it will take for your hourly rate to equal let's say 1.6 standard deviations, this is simply
hours to at least break even 95% of the time = (1.6*sigma/ev)^2.
At this point you have a 95% probability of being ahead.
|
To simplify the math lets assume a player with a winrate of 2BB/100hands and a Standard Deviation of 20BB/100hands
to have a 95% confidence of being ahead:
(1.6*20/2)^2 * 100 hands = 25,600 hands
now "ahead" doesn't mean at your true win rate... it just means >$0.
|
|
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
|
|
The_Bankroll
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Athens, GA
Posts: 370
|
|
I agree. 10k is nowhere close. at 10k hands, I thought I was doing really good with a 2.8BB/100 winrate. in 15k hands it was down to 1.9. I heard someone once say that 80k is when you can have a fairly confident idea of your true winrate, but even then it's only like 85-90% accurate.
|
|
|
|
midas06
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
|
|
Estrop almost played 10000 hands in one night
|
|
|
|
mouteut
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 152
|
|
WHoa...10K... 20 tabling? 
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
