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Trip aces, WK on flop

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drtofu66

04-22-2006, 05:59 AM Post subject: Trip aces, WK on flop

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 595

Table was loose-passive preflop. Normal sized raises PF were getting 1-3 callers. Normally I don't limp Axs UTG but tables conditions seemed ideal to try for a cheap flop.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+2 ($4.75)
MP1 ($24.75)
MP2 ($6.25)
MP3 ($15.04)
CO ($15.25)
Button ($12.79)
SB ($47.50)
BB ($14.15)
Hero ($35.05)
UTG+1 ($3.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6

, A

. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
Hero calls $0.25, 3 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.75) A

, 4

, A

(7 players)
SB bets $0.25, BB calls $0.25, Hero?

My thought is that I don't want to play this for a big pot. One of these guys probably has the other A and likely has me outkicked or full housed already plus the flush draw is out there. My plan is to play this passively unless I hit my kicker and dump to a big bet because I don't have much invested here yet.

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jackvance

04-22-2006, 06:02 AM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 2,910

jackvance is an unknown quantity at this point

Raise em $2. If you get a caller, then it's time to start thinking. But even then, you might still be ahead. More often than not you'll be the only one with the ace here.

EDIT:

A little math. Assuming the three folders didn't have an ace, that's 41 unknown cards left with 12 being dealt to your opponents. So that's a 30% chance that one of em has an ace. And of that 30%, you will have 25% outkicked so that's a roughly 21% chance you are beat on the flop.

So basically 4 times out of 5 you'll be good to go here. That's why it's a bit pessimistic to say that someone "probably has an ace too and has you outkicked".

(additionally Ax with x higher than T seems unlikely since they would have raised preflop.. so your "real" odds might be even better.. given the assumption that AJ+ raises preflop, you will have the better hand 8 times out of 9)

TLR

04-22-2006, 07:15 PM

#3 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 5,007

TLR is an unknown quantity at this point

I think you have to reraise to get some info and elimante possible flush draws. reraise $1.5-2 sounds correct

andy-akb

04-22-2006, 07:21 PM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Maine

Posts: 1,836

Quote:

Originally Posted by jackvance

Raise em $2. If you get a caller, then it's time to start thinking. But even then, you might still be ahead. More often than not you'll be the only one with the ace here.

I agree with this

Quote:

A little math. Assuming the three folders didn't have an ace, that's 41 unknown cards left with 12 being dealt to your opponents. So that's a 30% chance that one of em has an ace. And of that 30%, you will have 25% outkicked so that's a roughly 21% chance you are beat on the flop.

You cant assume the people that folded didnt have an ace, there are 47 unknown cards left.

Quote:

additionally Ax with x higher than T seems unlikely since they would have raised preflop.. so your "real" odds might be even better.. given the assumption that AJ+ raises preflop, you will have the better hand 8 times out of 9

Again you are assuming that everybody raises with AJ+, I limp AJ and he said that the table was passive, meaning not a lot of raises.

I agree with your main point that you should raise this to about $2 so you see where you are at, but I dont agree with your assumptions that you based your math on.

drtofu66

04-23-2006, 05:09 PM

#5 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 595

The thing about raising here at Party's 25NL is that if the SB or BB or someone after me has A2 or A3/5 (000-- trips! Awesome!), they're perfectly capable of going AI or reraising (it wasn't all that long ago that I was one of them). And of course A4/44 has me dead to 3 outs. Also, does raising here really push out the flush draws (again, this is Party 25NL)?

If you raise the flop and the SB re-raises, do you fold?

Ok, next-- if you raise and get 2 callers and the flush card hits on the turn (say it comes 8s)-- what's your plan? I'm not too happy with this hand now. Any bet 1/2 pot or more and I'm out, I think.

This is one of those "lose a big pot/win a small pot situations" that have been murder on me. Just trying to figure out the best approach.

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Trip aces, WK on flop

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