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TPTK vs nit showing aggression

  
 
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Vinland
Old 11-12-2009, 04:52 PM     Post subject: TPTK vs nit showing aggression #1 (permalink)  
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Vinland is an unknown quantity at this point
 Villain 17/10/1.0 over 334 (over a number of sessions)
He doesn’t steal very often, and has 3bet only one time before in a previous session.
He cbets roughly ½ the time. He plays very straight forward.

Preflop I gave him QQ+, AKo, AKs and thats it. I really don't think he 3bets anything else.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($9.63)
MP1 ($5.68)
Hero (MP2) ($4.93)
CO ($2.03)
Button ($1.97)
SB ($6.04)
BB ($3.12)
UTG ($3.22)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, K
UTG calls $0.05, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.30, 2 folds, SB raises to $0.90, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95) K, 4, 5 (2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero ?

On the flop he bets only half pot, but for him its a large amount. I've never really seen him get into a large pot before.
He is passive and I question if he cbets a flop containing a king if he has QQ so I take that out of his flop range, esp after his value bet size.

If my range is correct, and he only bets the flop holding AK, KK+ then I'm not in great shape (about 35% equity). If he does with other cards (like QQ) then I can call (54%).

Does anyone fold here? Or is calling and reevaluating his move on the turn the best?
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Muzzard
Old 11-12-2009, 05:19 PM #2 (permalink)  
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What was the point in calling preflop if you weren't sure what you'd do on a flop like this?

If his range is AK/AA/KK/QQ and he's going to felt all but QQ on this flop then there is no value in raising obviously.

There are only 3 combo's of AK left, 1 of KK and 6 of AA and QQ. So your losing to 7, beating 6 and chopping with 3. I doubt your goign to get much more value from QQ. I woudl probably just fold pre, even though we'll be IP postflop.
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Vinland
Old 11-12-2009, 05:30 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 ^^Yeah good point on the pf fold. At best I was a tie w/ AK and flip with QQ
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Belt
Old 11-12-2009, 06:33 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I have no problem with calling pre. You have ~40% equity against the range you assign to him after all.

I feel he cbets all his range on that flop. Yes this differs from his cbet stat but if he 3bets that tight then we don't know how he plays the flops which he 3bet pre and I expect him to be aggressive with all his range... So I can't exclude QQ from his range with only 1 cbet. Also, I beleive that cbetting QQ on these kind of spots is one of the most common mistakes we micro stakes players make...

Now his range contains 3 AA, 1 KK, 6 AK, 6 QQ. And against that range your equity must be something like 55%. Raising here accomplishes nothing obviously, folding is giving up on a lot of equity since we only need 25% equity while we have 55%. I would call this. On the other hand, if he barrels the turn I'm definitely removing QQ from his range and fold (except a K on the turn of course).
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Donkafelts
Old 11-13-2009, 12:05 AM #5 (permalink)  
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I think calling pre is bad because our Equity > EV. Sure we have position, but how often are we going to win a big pot? I dont see villian paying us off much with QQ when we hit a K or with KK/QQ when we hit an ace. Thing is when villian plays his AK agressively after hitting a K we are going to have to fold a bunch because he reps a strong range, or get value towned by better hands.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Belt
I have no problem with calling pre. You have ~40% equity against the range you assign to him after all.

I feel he cbets all his range on that flop. Yes this differs from his cbet stat but if he 3bets that tight then we don't know how he plays the flops which he 3bet pre and I expect him to be aggressive with all his range... So I can't exclude QQ from his range with only 1 cbet. Also, I beleive that cbetting QQ on these kind of spots is one of the most common mistakes we micro stakes players make...

Now his range contains 3 AA, 1 KK, 6 AK, 6 QQ. And against that range your equity must be something like 55%. Raising here accomplishes nothing obviously, folding is giving up on a lot of equity since we only need 25% equity while we have 55%. I would call this. On the other hand, if he barrels the turn I'm definitely removing QQ from his range and fold (except a K on the turn of course).
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nonofyobiz
Old 11-13-2009, 01:04 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Belt
I have no problem with calling pre. You have ~40% equity against the range you assign to him after all.

I feel he cbets all his range on that flop. Yes this differs from his cbet stat but if he 3bets that tight then we don't know how he plays the flops which he 3bet pre and I expect him to be aggressive with all his range... So I can't exclude QQ from his range with only 1 cbet. Also, I beleive that cbetting QQ on these kind of spots is one of the most common mistakes we micro stakes players make...

Now his range contains 3 AA, 1 KK, 6 AK, 6 QQ. And against that range your equity must be something like 55%. Raising here accomplishes nothing obviously, folding is giving up on a lot of equity since we only need 25% equity while we have 55%. I would call this. On the other hand, if he barrels the turn I'm definitely removing QQ from his range and fold (except a K on the turn of course).
i like this. in his shoes what is he suppposed to do with his QQ with only one over card? check and give up on the flop? call down 3 streets of betting? If I had QQ there i'd bet it, ...cheaper than check raising.
IS giving up on AK here really the best play?
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Donkafelts
Old 11-13-2009, 01:16 AM #7 (permalink)  
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I think villian would most likely c/c flop and c/f turn or try to get value from lower pairs if you check back flop with QQ. My problem with continuing with AK is that either we hit and split (-money from rake and villian will make us fold some) we hit and are behind (-money, we pay off a couple streets), we hit and are ahead( +money, obvious overcards to QQ though we won't be winning a big pot) or we miss. We are paying $.60 to get in a spot where + ev spots are slim.
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spoonitnow
Old 11-13-2009, 11:11 AM #8 (permalink)  
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You're so fucked on the flop here that it's not even funny and you can't fold. You're going to take it in the ass from KK+ and the AdKd, and you're only going to get the $1 from this street from QQ (sometimes) and from whatever he's bluffing with preflop. If you can't fold this preflop, then for fuck's sake don't call and flop top pair and then wonder what to do.
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Belt
Old 11-13-2009, 11:43 AM #9 (permalink)  
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@Donkafelts
I don't say that pre is a must call. I'm just saying that I don't have a problem with that. Actually in most cases (maybe except AKs) I'm folding this too against a range like that since even in position this hand is very hard to play post and I'm not that confident about my post flop game yet...

@Spoonitnow
I agree that we are in a very bad shape against KK+ but he can't be holding AdKd.

(Edited)
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