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TPTK vs aggro villian

  
 
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angrystoc
Old 10-21-2009, 03:29 AM     Post subject: TPTK vs aggro villian #1 (permalink)  

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angrystoc
Villian is 49/32/52 with 88% cbet, and 11% fold to cbet and 44% raise vs Cbet

Preflop: It's really hard for me to come up with a realistic range from someone with these stats. It's something like 22+, A2+, KT+ QJ and a bunch of random suited connectors.

Flop: Villian cbets, as expected. This doesn't adjust his range much for me, since he's 88% cbet. We can probably drop some of the more random SCs. His range is still huge, but I'll use (22+,A2s+,KTs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,43s,32s,A2o+,KT o+,QJo) I'm crushing his range, but I call because his turn bet % is 58% so I'm planning to get it in on a later street.

Turn: 2 probably didn't improve his hand. Villain bets 2/3 pot. Again, I think he's showing up here a lot with A9+, KT, OESD, 22+.

Turn after Action: Villian is apparently at the top of his range, but my read and his stats certainly suggest he's capable of over shoving as a bluff. Is a fold too nitty? How strong of a read do I need to call? My range for villain is now 99+, 33, 22, T9, KT, AT, 87s, QJs and stove has me at 26% equity.

Do my ranges make sense? What about my line in the hand?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($3.31)
BB ($5)
UTG ($6.74)
MP ($5.96)
Hero (Button) ($14)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 10
UTG bets $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 3, 10, 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.77) 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.45, Hero raises to $1.25, UTG raises to $6.39 (All-In), Hero ???
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clvacva
Old 10-21-2009, 04:27 PM #2 (permalink)  
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clvacva
I get more equity than that
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.874% 48.78% 03.09% 2082 132.00 { AhTs }
Hand 1: 48.126% 45.03% 03.09% 1922 132.00 { 99+, 33-22, ATs, KhQh, KTs, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 87s, AKo, ATo, KTo, QTo+, JTo, T9o }

I think the range you put him on is too tight. He is raising 32% lets say UTG he tightens up to 25% then this is could easily be villains open raising range
22+,A8s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A9o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9 o+,T9o

Villain also seems aggro post by cbetting too much and firing more than half the turns he sees. So he could easily be capable of shoving the turn with a 9 or just pure air which would increase your equity.

If you raise this particular villain then you have to be willing to call it of cuz his range is wide enough. Also villains pre and post stats indicate that he is a donk and probably shoves alot worst here.

CALL.
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Arjonius
Old 10-21-2009, 04:31 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Arjonius
It strikes me that when you raise his turn bet, you want to have a good idea already of what you'll do if he comes back over the top.

Against an aggro opponent, it seems calling here will be profitable. Of course, you need to be prepared to lose a fair amount of the time when he has you beat or hits his draw.
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bode
Old 10-21-2009, 05:02 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 raising this turn accomplishes nothing. Many of the hands you are already ahead of are folding and none of his better hands are folding.
Quote:
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scfc_andy15
Old 10-21-2009, 05:23 PM #5 (permalink)  
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scfc_andy15
but wouldn't you want to raise to protect from draws, QJ, 87, hh??
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angrystoc
Old 10-21-2009, 06:29 PM #6 (permalink)  

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angrystoc
Quote:
Originally Posted by scfc_andy15
but wouldn't you want to raise to protect from draws, QJ, 87, hh??
That was my reasoning at the time. A pair of tens is hardly the nuts.

by the way, when I raised the turn I was planning to call a bet / shove.
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Vinland
Old 10-21-2009, 06:46 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 I dont like the turn raise either....if hes willing to keep betting in then just call him down.
Have you seen him show down before? If he's shown down 2nd pair in a large pot before (or air) then a call should be good.
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Mizark
Old 10-22-2009, 01:15 PM #8 (permalink)  

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Mizark
You should be raising PF or fold. prob fold
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Vinland
Old 10-22-2009, 01:41 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mizark
You should be raising PF or fold. prob fold
No no no......
I'm not folding AT vs a 45/32/ player.....you are ahead of way too much to fold out against him.
I confess in quicksand
 
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