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TPTK IP vs turned 3 flush board

  
 
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sarbox68
Old 05-31-2009, 09:16 PM     Post subject: TPTK IP vs turned 3 flush board #1 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: wondering where the 3 extra chairs at my 6max table came from
Posts: 871
sarbox68
One of my (many) leaks is folding too much.

Vil is 20/12/1.3 over 148. 33/15/22 by street. cbet 100%. Fold to 3b 33%. Appears somewhat positionally aware.

I figure range is around 8% for MP so 77+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+. I opt not to 3bet 'cause he's only folding 1 in 3 and I don't see the point in bloating the pot w/ a TP hand that could get me in trouble deep. Blind calls who's 29/12/6.1. Not going to bother with his range right here because it becomes irrelevant.

Flop TPTK. I don't think the Cbet itself tells me much 'cause Vil cbets everything. However, the size looks more like a drawing hand vs trying to price out draws w/ overpr or Top pair but have no specific reads... so figure flop range maybe narrowed to 88+,AT,KT,JT and all the flush draw hands. Also AK/AQ/KQ OCs. Again, just call as am ahead of all the draws and all of his "cbet 'cause I has too" hands. I don't feel this hand is strong enough to raise to try and push out the Blind, and don't want to get a lot deeper with only TPTK vs this range. Blind folds.

Flush comes in and I lose my equity against any of those draws. Now I only beat KT,QT,JT and 99. AK/AQ double barrell is possible but I discount 'cause 1) his Turn aggression stat drops significantly, which I translate as less double barrelling (assumingly less w/ air...) and 2) I'm not sure a 1.3 AF dbl brls into this board as a total bluff... If I call I'm setting myself up for an 8-10$ river bet that I'm not going to call and I don't feel confident enough that a shove or large raise on my part will fold out the overpr part of his range and will commit me. So my decision would be to fold.

When I stoved it incl. an assumption of a dbl brl w/ AQo+ type missed hands, I have 44% equity against made flushes, 88+ and those OC hands... which obv justifies a call. Does that make this a weak fold? I can't think of much hitting showing up on the river that would allow me to call any sizable bet.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Full Tilt
SB ($32.15)
BB ($28.17)
UTG ($25.35)
UTG+1 ($46.79)
CO ($10)
Hero ($25)

Dealt to Hero AT

fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.10, fold, Hero calls $1.10, fold, BB calls $0.85,

FLOP ($3.65) T28

check, UTG+1 bets $2, Hero calls $2, BB folds,

TURN ($7.65) T285

UTG+1 bets $4, Hero ???
 
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revolvingiris
Old 05-31-2009, 09:56 PM #2 (permalink)  
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revolvingiris
I think its a fold. As you stated above "what can you really catch that will improve your hand over his"? I'm not saying villain always has a flush here but he seems to be weighing on the strong side of his range.
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Old 05-31-2009, 10:51 PM #3 (permalink)  
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well the problem with stoving it and saying "well, we have 44% equity on the turn, call" is that he will bet his stronger hands on the river and only some of his bluffs

and usually he'll bluff you if a J, K, Q come and he holds AhQs or something (but he'll hit that card 1/3 of the time as well!)
he probably gets another heart and beats you some % of the time as well

or he just has you crushed, a blank comes on the river and you feel like you have to call a 1/2 pot bet
I think folding is completely fine in this spot
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