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TPMK turned the nut flush draw, what line to take?

  
 
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Vinland
Old 09-03-2009, 02:15 PM     Post subject: TPMK turned the nut flush draw, what line to take? #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain was pretty nitty about 40 hands running 15/2/2.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($14.01)
SB ($1.95)
BB ($4.28)
Villain (UTG) ($2.59)
UTG+1 ($5.82)
MP1 ($4.83)
Hero (MP2) ($13.56)
MP3 ($7.81)
CO ($9.97)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, 9
Villain calls $0.05, 2 folds, Hero bets $0.20, 2 folds, Button calls $0.20, 2 folds, Villain calls $0.15

With A9s I dont mind raising from this position. The remaining players had some nits and a bunch of 30+/5/x. The BTN was running 50/2/x so I was happy to have him call...

Flop: ($0.67) J, A, 4 (3 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $0.55, 1 fold, Villain calls $0.55

I bet my TPMK b/c I am likely ahead of the BTN and dont want to give a free ride to anyone chasing a draw. If Villain has missed he would have folded as well. The call station folds.

Turn: ($1.77) Q (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero ?

Villain checks, I put him on a loose range of good FD's and took hands like AK, AQ, AJ out of his range. I think he bets those on the flop and turn to charge for draws.
If he has an A then it is probably AT and A7-A9. I don't see him calling preflop with worse than that Ace given his stats.

This is where I am torn. I put the chances of a FD higher than him having TP. If I value bet my TPMK, there arent many Ace combos that he calls with on the flop and turn that I beat.
I can bet to protect my TP vs a FD but now I also have the nut FD...
What is my line here that max's my EV?

If I don't hit the flush and the 3rd spade doesn't come, do I check it down? Or bet my TP? If I check turn, he probably thinks that I don't have an Ace like I represented on the flop.
I am at a loss of what the best line is. I really dont get into a lot of hands where I have FD possibilities...
I confess in quicksand
 
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Belt
Old 09-03-2009, 02:40 PM #2 (permalink)  
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We have TP+NFD, villain has 1.84 behind and the pot is 1.77... I'm getting it in i guess...
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tuuk2
Old 09-03-2009, 02:43 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Tough decision... I'm thinking that you need to bet here though. Probably somewhere in the $1.25 to Pot size. If he calls, then you can probably narrow his range to Ax or flush draw. Some players at 5nl won't chase the flush with one card to go though so betting out may get him off the hand.

If it's Ax, and it's not A-J or A-Q, he probably just calls here. If he calls and then checks the river, I'd check behind unless I hit the flush myself. I've run into a lot of players at 5nl who will c/c with two pair and then push the river or c/r me all-in if I bet.
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tuuk2
Old 09-03-2009, 02:44 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Belt
We have TP+NFD, villain has 1.84 behind and the pot is 1.77... I'm getting it in i guess...
I didn't notice the villain's total. I'd push all-in. If you're beat, you're beat, but it may take him off of a flush draw if he has one.
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Vinland
Old 09-03-2009, 02:53 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tuuk2
Quote:
Originally Posted by Belt
We have TP+NFD, villain has 1.84 behind and the pot is 1.77... I'm getting it in i guess...
I didn't notice the villain's total. I'd push all-in. If you're beat, you're beat, but it may take him off of a flush draw if he has one.
I don't want to "take him off a FD". I want him to call with worse not fold.
If he calls an all in and hits the flush, it sucks but I was ahead. If I push and he calls with an Ace, its probably better than mine.
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tuuk2
Old 09-03-2009, 03:08 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Well, based on relative stacks and the possibility the villain is on the flush draw, I'd push all-in. Even if he's got a higher kicker or two pair, you've still got outs. Since he's invested so much of his stack already, he's probably going to call even if all he has is a flush draw.
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Monty3038
Old 09-03-2009, 03:16 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Hmm...

I guess I was a little misled on the first reading of this hand, let me re-read it...

Ok, we have Aces, and we keep Aces in his range, but AK, AT are the two we are most scared of (AK has us beat and a SD, AT is looking at a straight draw...), how likely is villian to be in this hand with SC in spades or diamonds? Since they are pretty nitty but it is a small sample, I'm not so sure we can rely on it...

But they limped UTG... hmm...

I'm thinking pocket pair, that may have set. You might be in trouble here... but I think with the level (5NL) and the nitty image, you may be better off folding, but me being the casual player I am, I'm likely to shove this. He's only calling a shove with a set. Unless he is lost... IMO... but again, I'm a low hand count casual player... believe the better players over me

If you don't know that history, you can narrow the flush draw chances a bit, likelyhood of him holding diamonds isn't great I don't think, mostly because of the number of them already visible...
 
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Vinland
Old 09-03-2009, 03:20 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 I didnt put him on a diamond draw but a spade draw was most likely the case.
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Monty3038
Old 09-04-2009, 12:03 PM #9 (permalink)  
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I guess I just don't see him taking this line with a spade flush draw. What two cards would he have jumped in with and followed this line? At 5NL?
 
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Vinland
Old 09-04-2009, 01:37 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 I see a lot of stations and nits c/c 2 streets then coming alive on the river with their flush should they hit it.
I confess in quicksand
 
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Monty3038
Old 09-04-2009, 01:56 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Ok.
 
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daven
Old 09-04-2009, 02:33 PM #12 (permalink)  
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don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Donkafelts
Old 09-06-2009, 04:56 PM #13 (permalink)  
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[quote="Monty3038"]Hmm...

I'm likely to shove this. He's only calling a shove with a set. Unless he is lost... IMO...

quote]

So you're turning TP+NFD into a bluff? I bet turn b/c draws are calling on turn, but on river they either fold when they miss or bet if they hit. FWIW if river wasn't queen or if there wasn't ss checking behind to pick up bluffs or make value bets on river isnt so bad. Also, for me a big part of what sucks about checking behind turn is if he shoves river we are in a bad spot. Oh and if spade doesn't come and you checked turn you are going to vb 100%
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Old 09-06-2009, 08:04 PM #14 (permalink)  
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if you were 100BB deep it would be a good spot to check it back and call a river bet/shove if you hit
but it's top pair vs. a shortie, just shove
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dannyftw
Old 09-06-2009, 08:10 PM #15 (permalink)  
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what he/she said ^
I would rather play strategy over luck in any game, so even if i lose i feel good that i made the right choice. Losing luck over strategy and you just feel like a fool and thats how objects around you get broken.
 
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