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Tough spot for QQ

  
 
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Pig_Vomit
Old 04-19-2009, 03:03 PM     Post subject: Tough spot for QQ #1 (permalink)  
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Villian is 17/3/3 over 200 hands. He’s playing a couple of my tables (didn’t search him but should have) and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was playing 12+. Obv nit and I’ve been relentlessly stealing his blinds on some other tables. His attempt to steal is 5% and I don’t think he knows what position is. Folds 65% to c bet.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Hero (CO) ($33.35)
Button ($61.15)
SB ($67.85)
BB ($22.40)
UTG ($31.10)
MP ($31.80)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q
UTG bets $1, MP calls $1, Hero raises $4.10, 2 folds, BB calls $3.85, 2 folds

Flop: ($10.30) 2, 6, 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7.40, BB raises $18.30 (All-In), Hero calls $10.90

Turn: ($46.90) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($46.90) K (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $46.90

Results in white below:
BB had K, K (three of a kind, Kings).
Hero had Q, Q (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: BB won $44.60

Basic standard noob question ‘could I have gotten away from this?’ I honestly think he’s only calling preflop with JJ+,AKs maybe AQs given bet size. Against this range I’m flipping a coin as a slight underdog which is fine had villian pushed with dead money.

Problem comes on the flop. Can I check behind for pot control? I figure this keeps in the range I’m beating and lets me pick off bluffs later. I tend to c bet a lot in 3 bet pots and kinda feel obligated to bet as to balance my range. The bet I made above is terrible as I’m now pot committed when he shoves (although if villain’s range doesn’t include JJ maybe not?) Maybe bet half pot? Less?
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Outlaw
Old 04-19-2009, 03:17 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I think its fine as played.. just put a note on him that he plays big pairs that way. Worst case scenario below and you are basically 50% equity.

Board: 2s 6c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.092% 47.86% 01.23% 37906 975.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 50.908% 49.68% 01.23% 39344 975.00 { 22+, 54s, 54o }
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Pig_Vomit
Old 04-19-2009, 03:33 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I put him on a much tighter range. The question i think is if JJ is in his range. If it is I guess I played it fine but if he folds JJ to c bet then I'm getting owned and should fold to shove.

Is their any way to calculate equity with like a range that’s sort of random? Like if I felt that on this flop villain would shove JJ ½ the time and fold the other I think it would have a substantial effect on our equity.
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tyrn
Old 04-19-2009, 03:50 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pig_Vomit
Is their any way to calculate equity with like a range that’s sort of random? Like if I felt that on this flop villain would shove JJ ½ the time and fold the other I think it would have a substantial effect on our equity.
Search Google for "HERanger poker", should be the first link. You can put fold percentage in that.

As for your OP, folding queens to 11:36 pot odds on a board like that is really hard. You would have to be so sure that your reads about this guy being a huge nit were right. I wouldn't ever fold to the shove.
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AFchung
Old 04-19-2009, 05:32 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Outlaw
I think its fine as played.. just put a note on him that he plays big pairs that way. Worst case scenario below and you are basically 50% equity.

Board: 2s 6c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.092% 47.86% 01.23% 37906 975.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 50.908% 49.68% 01.23% 39344 975.00 { 22+, 54s, 54o }
54s and 54o are not in a 17/3's 3bet overcalling range
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Illfavor
Old 04-19-2009, 06:04 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 How is his range here not something like TT+ w/preflop action?
Ich grolle nicht...
 
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T-Rex
Old 04-19-2009, 06:31 PM #7 (permalink)  
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nah bro seriously this is a huge part poker dont fool yourself thinking u played bad. You did good Money was going to get in either way THATS THE BEST WAY TO LOSE MONEY!! be happy u lost money like that just laugh be like hahah that sucks and forget about it. Usually whenever u have a big over pair and villian has huge overpair its gunna get in either way.

Now the most important part!!

DONT LET THIS AFFECT YOUR NEXT HANDS!! play them queeens like a champ again and if hes got AA this time. Just laugh again

this is y we are playing properly rolled so this dont phase us!
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Pig_Vomit
Old 04-19-2009, 11:36 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
How is his range here not something like TT+ w/preflop action?
Yeah I guess TT is in his preflop call range but I still think that along with JJ he would fold to the c bet. I feel pretty confident in my reads here as I was bullying the player on a couple of tables and what I lost here I basically made up there (we’ve played a lot of pots) What do you guys think of checking behind and calling a st? What about different sized flop bets?
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Old 04-19-2009, 11:51 PM #9 (permalink)  
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[ ] tough spot
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poker_pup
Old 04-20-2009, 02:42 AM #10 (permalink)  
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If villian plays as tight as what you say he does, considering the preflop action, why would he have anything less than KK, AA or maybe AK?
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GatorJH
Old 04-20-2009, 12:39 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
[ ] tough spot
agreed. IMO JJ and TT are in villains range more than enough to make this +ev
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