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EasyPoker
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03-11-2010, 09:00 PM
Post subject: Tough spot - hit set, but two possible draws
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 753
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Villain is 95/68/38 over 23 hands. No other reads, but his stats say a lot really. His range is so wide, that nothing is out of the ordinary.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($2.53)
Hero (UTG) ($3.66)
MP ($3.28)
CO ($4.79)
Button ($4.26)
SB ($4.22)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with  , 
Hero bets $0.08, 2 folds, Button raises to $0.14, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.06
Flop: ($0.31)  ,  ,  (2 players)
Hero bets $0.28, Button calls $0.28
Turn: ($0.87)  (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1, Hero folds
Total pot: $0.87 | Rake: $0
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DJJunkPauds
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 301
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With a guy like this you could make an argument for getting all in preflop, though I'd want to have seen favorable table history, over and above stats.
I don't fold this turn. I'd call, and re-evalute the river. If he has you beat, he's going all in on 95% of rivers, and you're just shy of the implied odds to fill-up, so if he's bluffing, like ever, it's a call. I think he can be bluffing a lot here, and I think he can value betting a good deal of weaker hands.
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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i'd c/r flop, assuming that he like always bets this board.
as played, my first instinct is to lead out (i'll have to play with stove to see our equity against his continuing range, but he's continuing with A LOT of mid pair+gssd, bottom pair+FD, two pairs etc.).
as played, i'd call 'cause even if he's never bluffing, that means we're getting sick implied odds for when we fill up
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas.  |
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tpb221
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 69
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With him reraising pre I like a c/r on flop. As played though I'd think of leading turn simply cause he is going to bet it I think most times. I'm calling here on turn and they think about river. I think a maniac bets here to often with less then we have.
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DJJunkPauds
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 301
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I don't think the implied odds for filling up are sick. If we were only relying on filling up, our implied odds are just shy of break even.
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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lemme reword what i said. in the case that he sometimes has bluffs in his range, we are continuing with the best hand + have equity against hands that beat us.
in the case that he NEVER has bluffs in his range, we have sick implied odds because he's always stacking off when we hit
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas. |
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DJJunkPauds
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 301
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Quote:
Originally Posted by surviva316
in the case that he NEVER has bluffs in his range, we have sick implied odds because he's always stacking off when we hit
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I agree that he's always (or at least 99% of always) stacking off, but let's assume we *must* make at least a full house on the river to win the showdown.
On the turn, stacks are $3.24. Hero checks, and villain bets, and hero must call $1 to win $1.87 immediately, with a chance to win $2.24 - $0.32 rake on the river. Those are implied odds of 1 to 3.79, and the odds of filling up are commonly 1 to 4, which is just to much.
Let's also not forget, we don't win every time we fill up, and get all in, and we don't get all in every time we fill up.
We win a load of other ways, so it's fine, but I don't think implied fill up odds are quite enough. Maybe I'm calculating rake wrong. It's just an academic point.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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The lack of ranges in this thread is depressing.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
The lack of ranges in this thread is depressing.
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yeah i never did actually get around to that stoving i said i would do on whether or not to lead out turn. oh well.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas. |
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