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Tough spot with bottom set.

  
 
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ChrisBCritter
Old 03-06-2009, 02:57 AM     Post subject: Tough spot with bottom set. #1 (permalink)  
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Button is running 40/22/3.2 over 70 hands, seems fairly loose but haven't seen anything stupid shown down. CO running 83/31/4.4 over 35 hands, a favorite at the table so far. I'm stuck on both the turn and river decisions. I expected to be able to check-raise the turn, but I was really surprised when the button checked behind. Surely he would've bet a straight or straight-draw then right?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com


Button ($38.65)
Hero (SB) ($26.60)
BB ($28.65)
UTG ($5.35)
MP ($27.20)
CO ($19.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 7
2 folds, CO (poster) checks, Button bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.15, BB calls $1, CO (poster) calls $1

Flop: ($5) 10, J, 7 (4 players)
Hero bets $2.25, 1 fold, CO calls $2.25, Button calls $2.25

Turn: ($11.75) Q (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button checks

River: ($11.75) 9 (3 players)
Hero block bets $?

I don't like that board any more!
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Micro2Macro
Old 03-06-2009, 03:13 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 I'm not sure what other think of c/r'ing the flop but it would be interesting to see some other repsonses.

I'd bet more on the flop, probably like $4. You can't get the money in with small bets, and doing soo oop on that board against 2 loose opponents isn't always fun.

So bet more on flop, although I think a c/r might be okay too because you'll force them to pay alot more for any draws. The shitty thing about c/r'ing though is they may just check the flop.
Either way, lead the turn. You might be committed if you get raised, but you'll probably still get worse to come along. I didn't do the math of the stacks in my head but I think you can work that out.

As played I'm not sure if I'd bet the river or not. I might make a blocker for like 1/2 the pot, or I might check call a smallish bet.
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ATOTHEC101
Old 03-06-2009, 03:15 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Folding pf isn't terrible, as played lead for more on the flop and bet that turn, on the river you can't do much but cf.
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S1x
Old 03-06-2009, 03:36 AM #4 (permalink)  
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What they said, pretty much. A bigger bet on the flop may have gotten the button out of the hand.

And yeah, I'd play the river cautious. A semi-small blocker could work, but I'd probably lean towards checking and folding to a strong enough bet.
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ArcadianRock
Old 03-06-2009, 06:43 AM #5 (permalink)  
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You were right to be cautious on the river, there I would just check/fold. I don't mind the bet on the flop. It's kind of small but there really isn't anything they could draw to yet that could scare you, but at these levels people will call you so get the money in. What's the point of a set if you don't build the pot?

It's the turn I have a problem with. Why check it there, there wasn't anything you should be afraid of, don't give them a free card, they have to pay to see it and if they're willing to do it put a high price on the card, get your moneys' worth. If they don't bite, you take the hand down there and make 1/4 buyin, not bad to do with a set at all.

If you were afraid that they did have a K or something that's fine, you want them to draw out, you still have an advantage.

Even if you put him on a K here you are still a favorite

POKERSTOVE

77- 81%
K*- 19%

I'll take those odds any day.
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Fnord
Old 03-06-2009, 07:37 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Pot flop (JTx boards give action and you're not balancing out a bunch of c-bets), shove turn. Easy game.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Old 03-06-2009, 07:39 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Pot flop (JTx boards give action and you're not balancing out a bunch of c-bets), shove turn. Easy game.
this
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AFchung
Old 03-06-2009, 07:49 AM #8 (permalink)  
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with two players in the hand and a drawy board, you really need to bet bigger on the flop. it makes turn/river play a lot easier

and i keep barreling the turn as well
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Erpel
Old 03-06-2009, 09:30 AM #9 (permalink)  
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As played I see a showdown almost always. I think I check/call. Problem with a blocking bet is that if CO shoves you can't fold and if BTN shoves you end up folding the best hand too often. Check/call is basically a pot control line for me. I don't particularly want to stack off.

It's true that any 8 or K gives a straight, but putting only Kx and 8x in the opponents ranges is MUB thinking. Especially on the flop only really KJ, KT, J8, T8, 87 are played - a lot more combinations of AT and similar hands are in both opponents ranges. At these limits and with opponents with these stats they will think two pair is the nuts often enough that you need to be calling most bets below PSB.

Both opponents are aggressive, so they're not strangers to bluffing at scare cards and taking down pots with the worst. I recently read some 2+2 theorem posts and one of them was bluffing at any river when four to a flush was on the board, as even weak flushes will fold. This situation is not completely analogue but I think you are up against hands weaker than yours often enough.

In terms of bet/folding it's tempting to consider a bet in the size of $4 as we can convince ourselves that maybe he'll call that size bet with a two-pair hand so it's for value and if we're raised on we are never good and can fold. My problem with that type of bet is that I'm confident at least one of these opponents will see your bet as weak enough that they will shove you on a pure bluff just because they think you just told them that you will never call a shove.

But I spew.
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Fnord
Old 03-06-2009, 10:10 AM #10 (permalink)  
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I can't imagine seeing a river here without all of my money (or damn close) already in the pot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Erpel
Old 03-06-2009, 10:28 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
I can't imagine seeing a river here without all of my money (or damn close) already in the pot.
I agree, and I know you stated it twice in this thread already, and I think it's right that you do because as also mentioned in PNL one of the things we should strive to do when we play poker is to make our decisions simple and make our simple decisions good ones.

However, having a strategy that puts us in tough spots more rarely doesn't mean that it's wrong to try to learn how to think ourselves out of tough spots if they should occur.
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Old 03-06-2009, 10:48 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Fnord
I can't imagine seeing a river here without all of my money (or damn close) already in the pot.
I agree, and I know you stated it twice in this thread already, and I think it's right that you do because as also mentioned in PNL one of the things we should strive to do when we play poker is to make our decisions simple and make our simple decisions good ones.

However, having a strategy that puts us in tough spots more rarely doesn't mean that it's wrong to try to learn how to think ourselves out of tough spots if they should occur.
Yes, but the problem with the strategy of checking the turn is that it's wrong as well because of a number of scare cards that can come off to make second best hands worried. So it's not that we want the hand to play easy necessarily. It's a benefit, yes, but when we have a good hand it's MY MONEY AND I WANT IT NOW (before scary river)
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Erpel
Old 03-06-2009, 11:37 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
Originally Posted by Erpel
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
I can't imagine seeing a river here without all of my money (or damn close) already in the pot.
I agree, and I know you stated it twice in this thread already, and I think it's right that you do because as also mentioned in PNL one of the things we should strive to do when we play poker is to make our decisions simple and make our simple decisions good ones.

However, having a strategy that puts us in tough spots more rarely doesn't mean that it's wrong to try to learn how to think ourselves out of tough spots if they should occur.
Yes, but the problem with the strategy of checking the turn is that it's wrong as well because of a number of scare cards that can come off to make second best hands worried. So it's not that we want the hand to play easy necessarily. It's a benefit, yes, but when we have a good hand it's MY MONEY AND I WANT IT NOW (before scary river)
Ok, I'm betting the turn, oops misclick. There's a river. What do I do now?
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Old 03-06-2009, 01:05 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Erpel
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
Originally Posted by Erpel
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
I can't imagine seeing a river here without all of my money (or damn close) already in the pot.
I agree, and I know you stated it twice in this thread already, and I think it's right that you do because as also mentioned in PNL one of the things we should strive to do when we play poker is to make our decisions simple and make our simple decisions good ones.

However, having a strategy that puts us in tough spots more rarely doesn't mean that it's wrong to try to learn how to think ourselves out of tough spots if they should occur.
Yes, but the problem with the strategy of checking the turn is that it's wrong as well because of a number of scare cards that can come off to make second best hands worried. So it's not that we want the hand to play easy necessarily. It's a benefit, yes, but when we have a good hand it's MY MONEY AND I WANT IT NOW (before scary river)
Ok, I'm betting the turn, oops misclick. There's a river. What do I do now?
You play poker on the river
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loonychune
Old 03-06-2009, 02:20 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Not much has been said about the block bet, except it would have to really small. I reckon there's 2 good reasons not to put in a small river bet here:

1. there aren't many hands that call that you can beat
2. a small bet invites a reluctant 8x to call

Not that your opposition is folding 8x to any size bet in this spot, but I think against some opposition the price they're getting is going to influence their decision to call with the ignorant end.

I reckon overall point 2 adds a tonne of weight to point 1 since there are even less hands you beat as a fraction of ones you don't.

Oui?

EDIT: 3. If you're going to get bluffed at or bet into with top 2 or something, is a small bet going to stop them raising?

EDIT: Why has no one told me i'm wrong yet? Because I don't like my point 3 that much! But when I think about it, a blocker bet and a call isn't the worst spot for the in position player to bluff since likely only a K can call. Then AQ, QJ, QT, Q9 and worse beat you some of the time too so 1. gets more reinforced

If anyone is still reading this thread i'm interested to know what they think?
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ChrisBCritter
Old 03-06-2009, 02:20 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Thanks everyone, looking at the flop kinda tilts me now.

Just want to give my (flawed) thought processes as this played out. I hate it when slowplaying creeps back into my game.

I usually am betting pot on this flop (and wouldn't think twice on a 2-tone), but I think the FPS bug bit me, which happens too often on rainbow flops for me. I have to start looking for straight draws. 9Tx TJx JQx etc. flops need to start throwing a flag in my head I think.

Honestly, I think my tiny donk on the flop was meant to induce a raise from the button, who had been aggressive on nearly every flop I've seen him in. When that didn't work, I really expected him to go after the turn when it got to him. I know that this is bad, and I really try not to do it. I'll have to look, maybe I was distracted by a hand at a different table? This sounds like an excuse, but I do know that at this point of my session I had an extra 2 tables more than I usually do, so I think I didn't take enough time on my decisions here. I need to play more often, this is a simple mistake.

Thanks for the perspective guys.

For results oriented persons, and to show how badly I murdered this hand, I bet $5, CO called!?, BU raised to $12, 2 folds.
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