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Top two on the river against a spewy opponent

  
 
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Old 10-03-2008, 04:01 AM     Post subject: Top two on the river against a spewy opponent #1 (permalink)  
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I didn't see the guy's stats during the hand, but the previous hand he bet the flop multi-way with a gutshot with his AJ, and got it in on the turn with ace high against a bluff by a short stack. I thought that this way spewy play with a gutshot/ace high. He only showed down good starting hands, so he's like a spewy TAG as far as I could tell.

On the turn, I figured his range would be a lot of hands like AQ which I had beat, and KQ which beat me. Not so much AK because he doesn't benefit from raising there since he folds only hands he has beat.

On the river, my improving was a mixed blessing, since now the straight draw completed so if he was semi-bluffing on the turn he got there. However, if his turn raise was a value raise I got there. With his large river bet, it just doesn't seem plausible he would bet anything less than a set on a 4 straight board. But it's even more likely that he has air because it's a perfect board to bluff again.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($25.55)
MP2 ($200.05)
Hero (MP3) ($26.50)
CO ($32.40)
Button ($25)
SB ($10.35)
BB ($20.65)
UTG ($29.25)
UTG+1 ($4.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J, K
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 9, 10, K (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, CO calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.35) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.75, CO raises to $6, Hero calls $3.25

River: ($16.35) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $12, Hero?
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killerkebab
Old 10-03-2008, 01:36 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I was originally leaning towards a call when you said he's spewy but the more I think about it the more I fold here. QJ/KQ/AQ are all a big part of his range here imo, the only real starting hands that we beat here are AK and AJ, as far as I can see. (you said he plays good starting hands)
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jyms
Old 10-03-2008, 01:51 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I don't think there is a card that can come on the river that will make you confident in your hand. What is the reason for the call on the turn raise. Either you think your ahead and you get it in or we let this one go. I think your flipping on the flop against his range but not so much that would raise this turn. The river is bleh/fold
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Old 10-03-2008, 02:19 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by jyms
I don't think there is a card that can come on the river that will make you confident in your hand. What is the reason for the call on the turn raise. Either you think your ahead and you get it in or we let this one go. I think your flipping on the flop against his range but not so much that would raise this turn. The river is bleh/fold
I totally agree, but a queen would have been better since only AJ would beat us then
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spoonitnow
Old 10-03-2008, 03:56 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 Fold on the turn then fold again on the river.

Any thoughts on checking the turn?
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STHollywood
Old 10-03-2008, 07:21 PM #6 (permalink)  
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wouldnt someone 3-bet AK here pre? This looks like a really thin range unless it is a bluff with a mid pocket pair or totaly air. This really looks like 55 or QJ to me a lot of the time. Aside from the no-co 3bet this couldnt be AK because who the hell calls the flop and raises the turn with AK? I also think AQ makes no sense because why would that raise the turn when you bet 2 streets into him? with both QJ and 55 it would make sense to raise the turn. Also there is that whole thing about how generally people at these stakes only raise the turn with two pair or better. I think its really QJ and 55 a ton.

Check the turn?--hm...spoon are you suggesting a c/f or a c/c. I could see c/c and then c/f the river. I'd probably play it bet/fold the turn
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Old 10-03-2008, 07:39 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by STHollywood
Check the turn?--hm...spoon are you suggesting a c/f or a c/c. I could see c/c and then c/f the river. I'd probably play it bet/fold the turn
you COULD c/c turn and river. A lot of people will bet terribly small with nutish hands because they're afraid of scaring you away.

c/c, c/c would lose just about the same amount as b/c , c/f.
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Old 10-04-2008, 03:35 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by STHollywood
wouldnt someone 3-bet AK here pre? This looks like a really thin range unless it is a bluff with a mid pocket pair or totaly air. This really looks like 55 or QJ to me a lot of the time. Aside from the no-co 3bet this couldnt be AK because who the hell calls the flop and raises the turn with AK? I also think AQ makes no sense because why would that raise the turn when you bet 2 streets into him? with both QJ and 55 it would make sense to raise the turn. Also there is that whole thing about how generally people at these stakes only raise the turn with two pair or better. I think its really QJ and 55 a ton.

Check the turn?--hm...spoon are you suggesting a c/f or a c/c. I could see c/c and then c/f the river. I'd probably play it bet/fold the turn
I've seen him call two bets with ace high + gutshot so I think most of his range is AQ because he probably wouldn't play QJ for a raise
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