Hey guys, need some help on knowing whether or not this was the correct decision, as this situation has come up several times before. Villain was 29/17 over 24 hands, very small sample size. I basically figured he either had AT, an overpair or a set. My reason for raising the turn was to induce a fold if he held AT or an overpair, maybe this was the wrong play? not really sure what else I should have done in this situation as I feel like I can't fold and if the club doesn't come on the river I've lost so much to the pot and just have to throw the hand away to a large bet.
I think check calling this turn is a better play than check/jamming like you did. Better hands won't fold and minus the read that he's really bad worse hands will rarely call. When we get it in we probably have between 18-25% equity.
Basically I really doubt AT/JJ are folding and we have decent equity + some implied odds vs most hands.
Turn is where it all went wrong, obv. Hero has TPGK and FD. Action from the villain indicates that TPGK is marginal here. Cheap showdown is preferred. The FD on the turn is slightly less than 20% to hit on the river, and the Q high flush might not be enough to win (if it's a cooler). Small hands play small pots. Unless the river is the Ace of clubs (which means Villain did not have NFD on turn and gives Hero 2nd nuts), Hero should play passively.
Basically, this is a bad spot to attempt a bluff. Not many villains at this level are going to fold the range you put this villain on. If Villain is bluffing, give him/her another chance to bluff on the river and call down only if you have a read that puts Villain on a weak range (which in this case, you have indicated that you don't), otherwise, fold. It looks like you put villain on a range that was ahead of you and anything you could reasonably represent. This situation is very tempting to bluff at, since you know you can't win otherwise, but is almost always going to be spew if you go for it.
Remember: It's not about winning every hand, or even every hand you might have won if you didn't fold; it's about finding spots where you have an edge, and pressing that edge.
Calling pre is fine, we have a hand that hits flops well and has the potential to cooler utg's range.
Turn I'm calling, this river is a c/f or c/c, depends on sizing and if I think he can triple barrel with worse.